NFL Player Props and Best Projections

The model projects the Panthers to be the 3rd-most run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 44.2% run rate. The projections expect Chuba Hubbard to total 19.3 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs. After taking on 52.0% of his team's run game usage last season, Chuba Hubbard has been called on more in the running game this season, now accounting for 71.4%. Chuba Hubbard's 80.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year shows a remarkable improvement in his running prowess over last year's 53.0 figure. Chuba Hubbard's 5.0 adjusted yards per carry this season conveys a meaningful growth in his rushing prowess over last season's 3.8 rate.

The projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Steelers this year (a massive 61.4 per game on average). The predictive model expects Darnell Washington to be a more important option in his team's pass game in this week's contest (12.1% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.1% in games he has played). After averaging 1.0 air yards per game last year, Darnell Washington has shown good development this year, currently averaging 11.0 per game. Darnell Washington's 19.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season represents a material improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 8.0 rate.

An extreme running game script is implied by the Commanders being a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest. The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 2nd-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 52.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are expected by the projection model to run 69.1 total plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week. The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Commanders this year (a monstrous 58.4 per game on average). The opposing side have rushed for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the league (157 per game) vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.

An extreme running game script is implied by the Commanders being a giant 10.5-point favorite in this week's contest. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to pass on 47.5% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week. Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Cowboys, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.0 per game) this year.

The projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.8 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a whopping 62.6 per game on average). Jerome Ford's ground efficiency has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 4.37 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.62 figure last year.

The Steelers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script. The projections expect the Steelers to be the most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Najee Harris has run for many more adjusted yards per game (71.0) this year than he did last year (59.0). The Cleveland Browns defense has had the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 4.83 adjusted yards-per-carry.

The Raiders are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Opposing offenses have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.

A throwing game script is implied by the Browns being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cleveland Browns to pass on 63.1% of their chances: the 2nd-highest clip among all teams this week. The projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.8 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a whopping 62.6 per game on average). The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has yielded the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (39.0) vs. RBs this year.

The projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.2 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a whopping 62.6 per game on average). The projections expect Jameis Winston to be a more integral piece of his team's ground game in this game (11.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.2% in games he has played).

The Steelers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 44.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The projections expect Russell Wilson to attempt 27.7 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-fewest among all quarterbacks. Opposing offenses have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL. Russell Wilson's 61.9% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates an impressive decrease in his passing accuracy over last season's 66.1% mark.

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Titans are massive underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Titans to pass on 59.5% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest clip among all teams this week. The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.

The Cleveland O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in the league versus the Steelers defense this year (67.9% Adjusted Completion%).

The projections expect this game to have the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Steelers this year (a massive 61.4 per game on average). Najee Harris's 15.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 10.0. Najee Harris's 18.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season shows a noteworthy gain in his pass-catching ability over last season's 11.0 figure. Najee Harris's receiving efficiency has been refined this year, accumulating 6.56 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 5.32 mark last year.

This game's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Colts, who are heavy -7.5-point underdogs. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 131.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year. Jonathan Taylor has gone out for more passes this year (58.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.1%).

The projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.2 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Cleveland Browns this year (a whopping 62.6 per game on average). The model projects Nick Chubb to total 17.3 carries in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs. Nick Chubb has been a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this year (66.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (41.8%).

The predictive model expects the Texans to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Texans have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 61.8 plays per game. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer. In totaling a colossal 34.3 pass attempts per game this year, C.J. Stroud ranks among the top quarterbacks in the NFL (75th percentile) in this statistic. The Tennessee Titans cornerbacks profile as the 6th-worst collection of CBs in football this year in defending receivers.

This game's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Colts, who are heavy -7.5-point underdogs. The 3rd-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (just 54.3 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. This year, the tough Lions run defense has conceded a measly 90.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 4th-fewest in the NFL. The Detroit Lions safeties grade out as the best group of safeties in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

At only 27.94 seconds per snap, the Broncos offense grades out as the 8th-quickest paced in football (adjusted for context) this year. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Broncos ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year. This year, the anemic Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed a massive 74.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-largest rate in football. The Las Vegas Raiders defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.23 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 8th-most in the league.

In this week's game, Rhamondre Stevenson is expected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 81st percentile among running backs with 16.3 rush attempts. Rhamondre Stevenson has been a more important option in his team's run game this year (61.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (51.2%). Rhamondre Stevenson has picked up 58.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in football when it comes to running backs (78th percentile).

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 5.5 points. The model projects the Buccaneers to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. The predictive model expects Baker Mayfield to attempt 32.8 passes this week, on average: the 10th-fewest out of all QBs. Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Giants, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 28.7 per game) this year. The Giants defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.45 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.

The predictive model expects the Texans to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Texans have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 61.8 plays per game. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer. In this game, Nico Collins is anticipated by the projections to position himself in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 8.5 targets. Nico Collins's 90.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season conveys a meaningful progression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 80.0 rate.

The weather report calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. This year, the feeble Rams run defense has been gouged for a monstrous 4.34 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposing run game: the 24th-largest rate in the NFL. The Los Angeles defensive ends rank as the best unit in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Lions are forecasted by the predictive model to call 66.7 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. The projections expect Jared Goff to throw 35.4 passes in this week's game, on average: the 6th-most among all quarterbacks. With a fantastic rate of 245.0 adjusted passing yards per game (75th percentile), Jared Goff has been as one of the top QBs in football this year. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the league (251.0 per game) against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.

The Lions have called the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 55.9 plays per game. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles grade out as the 8th-best collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

The projections expect Brock Purdy to garner 4.6 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 9th-most among all quarterbacks. Brock Purdy has been much more involved in his team's running game this year (16.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (6.9%). Brock Purdy has rushed for substantially more yards per game (26.0) this season than he did last season (9.0). As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Green Bay's group of LBs has been lousy this year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the league. in the league.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Green Bay Packers are predicted by the projection model to call just 63.2 total plays in this contest: the 6th-lowest number among all teams this week. This year, the imposing San Francisco 49ers defense has allowed a feeble 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-smallest rate in the NFL. This year, the tough 49ers defense has yielded the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a paltry 7.1 yards. The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the best group of LBs in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

David Njoku's 34.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 41.5. The Cleveland O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board. David Njoku's skills in generating extra yardage have worsened this season, averaging a mere 4.51 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 7.33 figure last season. The Steelers pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.3%) versus tight ends this year (71.3%). The Steelers pass defense has shown good efficiency against TEs this year, conceding 6.28 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 5.5 points. The model projects the Buccaneers to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Giants, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 28.7 per game) this year. This year, the fierce Giants pass defense has surrendered the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing tight ends: a paltry 2.8 YAC.

The model projects George Kittle to notch 6.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among tight ends. With a remarkable 22.9% Target% (97th percentile) this year, George Kittle rates as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in the NFL. George Kittle has notched far more air yards this year (62.0 per game) than he did last year (55.0 per game). George Kittle has totaled significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (74.0) this season than he did last season (60.0). The Packers defense has been gouged for the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (60.0) vs. TEs this year.

Right now, the 4th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (63.2% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In this contest, Mike Evans is forecasted by the predictive model to position himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.4 targets. In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year. The Giants pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.2%) to WRs this year (70.2%). When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, New York's unit has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the NFL.

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Lions are forecasted by the predictive model to call 66.7 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. This week, Amon-Ra St. Brown is projected by the projections to land in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.9 targets. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 29.2% this year, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among wideouts. The Colts pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (71.8%) to wide receivers this year (71.8%).

This game's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Colts, who are heavy -7.5-point underdogs. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 131.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year. The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Patriots offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board. This year, the formidable Dolphins defense has allowed a feeble 211.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 9th-best in the league.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a massive 60.0 plays per game. The model projects Jonnu Smith to total 6.1 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among TEs. Jonnu Smith has totaled a staggering 30.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends. Jonnu Smith's 35.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 28.8. Jonnu Smith's 42.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year conveys a substantial growth in his receiving talent over last year's 34.0 rate.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Rams to pass on 63.5% of their opportunities: the highest rate among all teams this week. The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Our trusted projections expect Puka Nacua to notch 9.9 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts. With a remarkable 77.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (95th percentile) this year, Puka Nacua rates among the best wide receivers in the game in football.