NFL Player Props and Best Projections

The leading projections forecast Gus Edwards to be a more important option in his team's running game in this week's game (45.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (33.8% in games he has played).

The projections expect the Jaguars to be the 7th-most run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 44.6% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 8th-most in football. Sam Darnold has thrown for a lot more adjusted yards per game (249.0) this season than he did last season (33.0).

A throwing game script is implied by the Seahawks being a -3-point underdog in this week's game. The leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The projections expect D.K. Metcalf to earn 8.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. This year, the deficient Arizona Cardinals pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 69.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 4th-worst rate in the NFL.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by our trusted projection set to have only 124.8 plays on offense run: the lowest number on the slate this week. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the 49ers, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.5 per game) this year. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 4th-fewest yards in the league (just 202.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year. The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, allowing 7.18 adjusted yards-per-target: the 4th-fewest in the NFL. As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, San Francisco's group of LBs has been excellent this year, profiling as the best in football.

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 6.5 points. The predictive model expects the Steelers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect Russell Wilson to attempt 32.0 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-fewest among all quarterbacks. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game versus the Browns defense this year: 7th-fewest in football. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in the league against the Cleveland Browns defense this year (65.0% Adjusted Completion%).

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.4 per game) this year.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the predictive model to have 139.5 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week. The highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a colossal 62.7 per game on average). The model projects Nick Chubb to garner 14.5 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs. After comprising 41.8% of his offense's run game usage last season, Nick Chubb has been called on more in the rushing attack this season, now making up 62.6%. The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles profile as the 4th-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

The Titans are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Titans to pass on 53.2% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week. The model projects the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Titans this year (a measly 56.3 per game on average). Calvin Ridley has compiled substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (52.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).

A throwing game script is suggested by the Falcons being a -5.5-point underdog this week. The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.8 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. The Minnesota Vikings defense has been something of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.1 per game) this year. The projections expect Drake London to accumulate 10.9 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Eagles being a huge 12.5-point favorite in this week's contest. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 43.7% of their chances: the lowest frequency among all teams this week. In this game, Jalen Hurts is predicted by the projections to wind up with the fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 26.9. Jalen Hurts has thrown for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (198.0) this season than he did last season (231.0).

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup QB Cooper Rush in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Cowboys, who are -5.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 63.1% of their downs: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 135.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing teams have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 9th-most in the league.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (35.4 per game) this year. Kyler Murray's 68.6% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a meaningful growth in his throwing precision over last year's 65.3% mark.

In this contest, Jauan Jennings is predicted by our trusted projection set to place in the 83rd percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.9 targets. Jauan Jennings's 25.4% Target Share this season conveys an impressive improvement in his pass attack volume over last season's 8.8% figure. Jauan Jennings has accrued significantly more air yards this season (73.0 per game) than he did last season (26.0 per game). Jauan Jennings's 72.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year conveys a material gain in his pass-catching skills over last year's 23.0 mark. Jauan Jennings's 74.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a remarkable improvement in his receiving talent over last season's 64.5% rate.

A throwing game script is implied by the Seahawks being a -3-point underdog in this week's game. The leading projections forecast the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Geno Smith's 275.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season reflects a remarkable progression in his throwing ability over last season's 237.0 figure. This year, the weak Arizona Cardinals defense has conceded a massive 74.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 3rd-worst rate in the league.

The model projects Kenneth Walker to earn 15.9 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs. Out of all RBs, Kenneth Walker ranks in the 96th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 66.7% of the workload in his team's running game.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.0% of their plays: the highest rate among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to have 135.2 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. The predictive model expects Tee Higgins to notch 10.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers. After accruing 81.0 air yards per game last year, Tee Higgins has posted big gains this year, now pacing 110.0 per game.

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the 49ers to run on 46.5% of their plays: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week. In this contest, Brock Purdy is forecasted by the projection model to earn the 5th-most carries among all QBs with 4.4. Brock Purdy has rushed for a lot more yards per game (24.0) this year than he did last year (9.0). This year, the tough Chicago Bears run defense has yielded a paltry 5.14 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 28th-smallest rate in football.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have 139.5 plays on offense called: the highest number out of all the games this week. The 2nd-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Steelers this year (a whopping 61.4 per game on average). In this game, Najee Harris is predicted by the predictive model to land in the 79th percentile among running backs with 3.3 targets. Najee Harris's 15.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 10.0. Najee Harris has accrued many more adjusted receiving yards per game (21.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 8th-most in football. In this contest, T.J. Hockenson is expected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.1 targets.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.0% of their plays: the highest rate among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to have 135.2 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. In this game, Mike Gesicki is predicted by the projections to find himself in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.8 targets. Mike Gesicki has accrued quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (38.0) this year than he did last year (17.0).

The Saints are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script. The model projects the Saints to be the 3rd-most run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 47.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.3 plays on offense run: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week. In this week's contest, Alvin Kamara is anticipated by the model to position himself in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs with 24.2 carries. This year, the strong New York Giants run defense has yielded a meager 5.51 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's run game: the 32nd-best rate in the NFL.

The Titans are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Titans to pass on 53.2% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week. The model projects the Titans to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics. The 10th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Titans this year (a measly 56.3 per game on average). The Tennessee offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 8th-most in football. Aaron Jones's 49.9% Route% this season illustrates a substantial progression in his passing offense usage over last season's 37.6% figure.

The Titans are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Titans to run on 46.8% of their downs: the 4th-highest frequency among all teams this week. The opposing side have rushed for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (137 per game) versus the Jaguars defense this year.