College Football Picks

Both teams like to play fast — the South Florida Bulls lead the nation in plays per minute (2.86), while the San Jose State Spartans are ninth (2.54). With all of that tempo, there should be plenty of snaps to look forward to on Christmas Eve. More plays generally means more yardage and more points, so sign me up for an Over on the island. While the transfers are limited, there are a few that will impact both defenses. SJSU will be without both starting corners DJ Harvey and Michael Dansby, leaving sixth-year senior Amir Wallace and redshirt junior Jalen Bainer as the starters. USF will not have the services of starting safety Tawfiq Byard or starting defensive tackle Doug Blue-Eli.

This line fell to -3.5 from -4.5 on the news that San Jose State WR Nick Nash opted out of the Hawai’i Bowl. That -4.5 had that possibility already baked in. The crux of this handicap, though, is Spartans head coach Ken Niumatalolo. He took over a program feeling some abandonment and put together a 7-5 showing in his first season. Now he takes SJSU back to the same bowl it was in last season, but with the added emphasis of Niumatalolo being a native Hawaiian. Furthermore, his father passed away eight days before this game. If ever a team was going to be locked in for a bowl, it’s when returning to the site it enjoyed last year, under a first-year head coach with more emotion in his voice than ever.

Kansas State already ranks No. 18 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per rush, a rank buoyed immensely by explosive plays in comparison to the Wildcats ranking just No. 61 in rushing success rate, more a measure of down-by-down ability. The great news for Kansas State is this fits against Rutgers’s exact weakness. The Knights give up successful rushes on nearly half of opponents’ ground attempts. The Wildcats’ so-so down-by-down rushing ability should see distinct improvement in the Rate Bowl, in part because the offensive line play should level up during December and in part because Rutgers dreads this exact concern.

Without a doubt, the best player set to play in this game is Harold Fannin Jr. for the Bowling Green Falcons, but it’s fair to wonder just how much he’ll play given the fact he’s viewed as a Top-100 talent in the NFL Draft. Even if he does play the entirety of the game and gets fed like he has been all season by QB Connor Bazelak, the Falcons are down their three next-best players. That’s three massive losses, especially for a team that’s favored by more than a touchdown against a program from a stronger conference. Without Stewart and Wollschlaeger, this Falcons run game — which is 82nd in EPA per rush this season — will take a major hit.

One of the greatest lies of the 2024 season is believing in Georgia Tech because it upset Florida State in the first game of the entire season. Clearly, that was not as impressive as the world assumed in the moment. GT is a solid team, not a great one. It would take a great team to stop Vanderbilt in its first bowl game since 2018 and the first under Clark Lea. Commodores quarterback Diego Pavia finished the season pretty beat up. A month off should have him back to his frenetic ways, rather tailormade for the unpredictability of bowl games.

Lincoln Riley has to put on a good face publicly, but he knows he misevaluated his quarterbacks last offseason. Miller Moss is already off to Louisville, and Jayden Maaiva has not exactly looked the part yet, completing only 59.7% of his passes in his three starts. Not to be dramatic, but things at USC might be turning to the worse. Receiver Zachariah Branch is one of the most dynamic players in the country, the kind of player usually made famous in a Trojans uniform. His transferring speaks to larger issues at USC, a locker room that Riley may be losing. Facing Texas A&M’s Mike Elko-enthused mentality, a lost locker room may be a bowl-game disaster.

First of all, Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola has refuted transfer rumors. Presume that holds. But nonetheless, there is value in Boston College at this number. The Eagles closed the season 5-0 ATS and 3-1 outright in their last four. BC exceeded bookmakers’ expectations by nine points per week in those five successes since late October. Three of those closing covers were as underdogs. Bill O’Brien quickly righted the debacle Jeff Hafley left behind, and his focus will be entirely on the Pinstripe Bowl while Matt Rhule may be more honed in on his 2025 roster already, already beginning with retaining Raiola.

As far as bowl games go, the Citrus Bowl may be one of the most genuinely comparable to the season. Both rosters should be rather intact. At which point, one has to ask, why is this spread still in the single digits? While the Gamecocks might have some Playoff disappointment to get over, that will be five weeks in the past by New Year’s Eve. South Carolina’s defensive line should ruin Illinois’s entire offensive approach, while QB LaNorris Sellers has a Heisman campaign to launch. When a program closed a season as strongly as SC did, with greater heights imaginable in the next season, a strong bowl showing is not a hard motivation to sell. Meanwhile, the Illini likely already peaked.