College Football Picks

It’s gotten so bad for the Boilermakers that head coach Ryan Walters, a defensive coordinator by trade, has even been calling the offensive plays for Purdue at times. No matter who’s calling the plays or playing under center, the Boilermakers have the same result. Purdue is ranked 129th out of 134 in points per game this season (17.2) and has scored 10 points or fewer in six of nine games against FBS teams. It’s an offense that’s 98th in EPA per rush and 121st in EPA per dropback. And it’s not as if Michigan State’s going to hit this Over on its own. The Spartans are worse on offense than Purdue, according to SP+ (117th), and are only scoring slightly more points per game (19.4).

UNLV likes to keep the ball on the ground and is in no hurry whatsoever offensively. Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s Go-Go Offense ranks eighth nationally in rush rate and churns out 249.1 yards per game on the ground. UNLV ranks 70th in plays per minute and will likely look to slow things down on the road with a short week of rest against the lightning-quick Spartans. The Spartans are 1-4 O/U in their last five games. Their offense will be put into question by the elements and they’re facing a team that wants to keep the ball on the ground. I’m betting on the Under in a game where the weather should play a factor.

Jacksonville State head coach Rich Rodriguez is about to reaffirm why he was hired. If the Gamecocks win this weekend, they will be locked into the Conference USA title game. Sam Houston State has those same hopes, but the Bearkats still need help. Struggling to blow out coach-less Kennesaw State showed Sam Houston State’s deficiencies, and with these stakes at hand, Jacksonville State should take advantage of those deficiencies in a ground-bound game. Expect the Gamecocks to control this game flow, enough so as to win by at least a touchdown.

Kennesaw State does not have the roster depth to withstand the last couple weeks of this month, not after nearly 20 players already entered the transfer portal after head coach Brian Bohannon’s abrupt and debated firing. The Owls’ survived the loss of three starting offensive lineman and three of their top-four receivers for a week against Sam Houston State, but do not expect that to further. Be logical. FIU will have the two best units on the field, and that should be enough against such an adrift Kennesaw State.

Raise your hand if you have yet to beat a quarterback still considered a starter? Oh, Virginia Tech, your hand is up? Look, no one has bought in harder on the Kyren Drones resurgence than yours truly, but it has only camouflaged the Hokies’ defensive graces. Against Duke, with a stout defense, Drones will not be the band-aid he has been. The Blue Devils have a higher floor than they are given credit for, and that creates value in betting on the short home underdog.