College Football Picks

Jacksonville State wide receiver Brock Rechsteiner could be a busy man on Friday. Rechsteiner has at least one reception in every game he’s played this season. He averages 15.8 yards per reception and caught one ball for 10 yards last week against the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky allows 7.8 yards per reception. That’s pretty stingy, and they don’t get beat often for long plays. That makes Rechsteiner a valuable option, especially if Huff can’t run the ball effectively. Rechsteiner is a WR who makes plays. He averages 15.8 yards per reception, with at least one reception in 10 consecutive tilts and three multi-reception games this season. He meets a stingy Hilltoppers pass defense who will likely jam the box to prevent the rush. One reception from Rechsteiner will likely win this bet, and one bet I want to make is for him to clear 8.5 receiving yards.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are known for big-arm quarterbacks, and sophomore quarterback Caden Veltkamp is no exception. The sophomore signal-caller has thrown for the second-most passing yards in C-USA this season and is coming off a 301-yard passing day in Week 14 against this Jacksonville State Gamecocks defense. The Hilltoppers are a +5 underdog. The game script may call for Vetltkamp to sling the ball more often than his typical 29 times per game. That’s fine because throwing the football is what Vetltcamp does. He’s averaging a career-best 8.3 yards per completion with a 67% completion percentage. Veltkamp should get some help. Jacksonville State doesn’t defend the airways as well as some, allowing a 59.5% completion percentage and 7.6 yards per reception. That amounts to 221 passing yards allowed, and less than optimal for defending Veltkamp.

Senior running back Tre Stewart is the leading man in the Jacksonville State backfield. Stewart leads the Gamecocks in rushing yards and led C-USA during the regular season with 1,403 rushing yards (1,103 vs. conference opponents). Stewart and quarterback Tyler Huff have each scampered for 1,000+ rushing yards. Huff is a game-time decision, but either way, I expect Stewart to rush for more than 106.5 rushing yards. Western Kentucky owns the worst rushing defense in C-USA play. They’ve surrendered 217 rushing yards per night on 4.8 yards per carry. They held Stewart to only 85 yards on 20 attempts, but I expect Stewie to be the man on Friday. Stewart has cleared 109 rushing yards in six of his past eight. Stewart has been unstoppable, and with Huff’s ankle banged up, the Gamecocks will lean heavily on their top back.

Regardless of whether Tyler Huff plays or not, the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have the talent to keep this game within five points. This Hilltoppers passing attack, in particular, should make a huge difference. Western Kentucky is 63rd in the country in EPA per dropback, while this Jacksonville State Gamecocks defense is just 97th by the same metric. In last week’s 2-point loss to WKU, Jax State gave up 301 passing yards to Caden Veltkamp, who has been arguably the best pure passer in the conference all season.

Last weekend, Jacksonville St. was a one-point ‘dog at Western Kentucky. The Gamecocks lost thanks to a last-second FG, but much of the loss came from the situation. Jacksonville St. knew it would set up a rematch with a loss, so it did not want to give away any schematic knowledge. After QB Tyler Huff was injured in the third quarter, four of the five subsequent Gamecocks’ drives lasted five plays or fewer. Not because Logan Smothers can’t run the offense; he started much of last season. But because it was more important to keep things close to the vest.  Homefield alone should have jumped this spread to -6, and holding it at -4 is a Huff overreaction.

Daily has run for at least 136 yards in seven of his last eight games and in each of the last five games. In two of the three games in which he failed to run for this number, the game was a complete blowout, and he had no need to run it late since they were up 40 points. Only the game at Florida Atlantic back in early September was a non-blowout in which he failed to run for this number and that was still a 17-point win for Army. Last week, Tulane allowed 236 yards rushing to Memphis and their leading rusher had 177 yards. The only concern is that two weeks ago, they shut out Navy and held them to 100 yards rushing.

UNLV does not need to sell out against the run to stop Ashton Jeanty. Its defense is solid enough to do it within its usual structure. Boise St. runs the ball 6.2% more often than the average team would in a given game state. If the ground game is taken away, Boise St. will struggle, particularly in the colder temperatures. UNLV runs even more often, 10.8% more often than the average team, and turns to a handful of ball carriers to do so. The cold hits should wear out Jeanty faster than they will the trio of Jai’Den Thomas, Hajj-Malik Williams and Kylin James. This moneyline is too steep when the primary Broncos want is a Rebels strength.

Tulane’s defense will stymie Army early, particularly given its defensive success rate of 64.4%, No. 8 in the country. Stymying a triple-option offense early yields a few added offensive possessions of your own, at which point QB Darian Mensah should hit some deep passes to give Tulane a quick lead. Desperation will stir Army to bigger plays, and it is capable of them despite preconceptions. It could be argued the Knights would stay conservative and worry more about next week’s tilt with Navy, but with a conference championship on the line for the first time in 133 years of Army football, the Knights should respond to an early deficit with quick strikes.

Cam Camper's 811 receiving yards are nearly double that of any other receiver on the roster — Latrell Caples has 406 yards — and it’s evident quarterback Maddux Madsen has a go-to guy in the air. Camper has been peppered, with his 78 targets being 30 more than any other wideout. That’s been evident lately, as he’s averaging 9.3 targets across his last three games. 

Daily has run for at least 136 yards in seven of his last eight games and in each of the last five games. In two of the three games in which he failed to run for this number, the game was a complete blowout, and he had no need to run it late since they were up 40 points. Only the game at Florida Atlantic back in early September was a non-blowout in which he failed to run for this number and that was still a 17-point win for Army. Last week, Tulane allowed 236 yards rushing to Memphis and their leading rusher had 177 yards. The only concern is that two weeks ago, they shut out Navy and held them to 100 yards rushing.

Mensah has at least 175 yards passing in seven games this season and has surpassed this number in four of the past five games. The Army defense allows 192.5 passing yards per game and is mediocre at rushing the quarterback and getting sacks. Last week, Army allowed 207 yards passing in a low-scoring close game. Army even allowed 214 yards passing three weeks ago to a North Texas team that only scored three points in a game with a total of 17 points. With likely issues finding room in the run game, Mensah will get the volume needed for him to surpass this number. I like his chances of taking advantage of this opportunity. 

Daily has run for at least two touchdowns in all but one game this season. That Florida Atlantic game we mentioned previously was his only game without multiple rushing touchdowns. He was completely held out of the endzone in that game. The low-scoring game possibility should not scare you away at this high of odds. Even in games in which Army only scored two total touchdowns against North Texas and Notre Dame, he had both of them. 

In his nine games as starting quarterback, Williams has taken 100 carries for 900 yards, sacks adjusted, and rushed for nine touchdowns, at least one in seven games. Against Boise St. in late October, Williams took 13 carries for 144 yards and a score, adjusting for six sacks. This Mountain West title game should become a grind, scaring off a rushing yardage prop bet. The total is nearly a touchdown lower than October’s. Yards may come at a premium on this 30-degree Friday night. At that point, UNLV should turn to its best offensive piece where it matters most.

Jeanty fell short of this number in four of his last six games. The two exceptions? Against the No. 107 and No. 102 rush defenses in EPA per rush against. If Jeanty did not run for 200 yards against Nevada and Oregon State, it would have been a worry. UNLV’s rush defense ranks No. 14 in EPA per rush and No. 8 in success rate. It memorably held Jeanty to 128 yards on 33 carries in late October, an average of 3.88 yards per rush, nearly a yard lower than any other game. UNLV kept Jeanty contained on all 33 of those carries; his longest rush was for 16 yards. In his 11 other games this season, Jeanty always had at least one rush for at least 35 yards.

You see a triple-option offense and assume an Under, but this Army offense is the most explosive triple-option approach we have seen in a generation. You see a defense-driven program and assume an Under, but Green Wave sophomore quarterback Darian Mensah is a playmaker through and through. Tulane would have finished a comeback against Memphis on Thanksgiving if his contested deep passes were a touch more accurate; Army’s defensive backs are not on the same level as the Tigers’. Mensah should find more successes downfield, which will only push Army QB Bryson Daily to show off the arm that changed this triple-option offense for one year.

UNLV doesn’t have a traditional passing attack, but it’s effective nonetheless. Quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams averages 8.4 yards per attempt, and he’s force-fed White with those passes. Ricky White has seen no fewer than seven targets in any of his last 10 games. Combine elite volume with incredible talent and a tempting matchup, and you know which side of this prop I’m taking. 

Boise State’s defense has had troubling metrics for two straight years now, with Spencer Danielson running the show. The Broncos rank 54th in EPA per rush and 86th in rushing explosiveness, and PFF’s numbers aren’t any kinder (73rd in rush defense, 133rd in tackling). UNLV is content to keep the ball on the ground, checking in at eighth in rush rate. The Rebels seem primed to take advantage of Boise’s tackling issues, or at least its 11th-ranked offense in terms of rushing explosiveness would seem to indicate as much. My favorite play on the board for Jai'Den Thomas is his rushing yardage prop at 67.5.

But look at the one Ohio loss in MAC play to assure your faith. Miami beat Ohio 30-20 in mid-October, and the reality is that the game was nowhere near that close. The RedHawks led 30-6 with six minutes remaining. Ohio scored its final touchdown with six seconds remaining. Miami will have the two best units on the field. It has the veteran quarterback in Brett Gabbert intent on a championship coda to his career after an injury cost him the final month of last season. It has the coach who has won the MAC twice before, including last season. Do not overthink the MAC title game.

Arizona State should end up more one-dimensional than usual with WR Jordyn Tyson sidelined. In the five-game surge that propelled ASU into this title game, he averaged 8.8 catches for 104.8 yards per game, scoring 6 TDs. Without him, ASU’s passing attack should fall off. Their next leading pass-catcher of late is Chamon Metayer with 2.8 catches per game in the last five for 29.8 yards, scoring 3 TDs. Losing one receiver should not move a spread or change a gameplan, certainly not at the collegiate level, but when the rest of the receivers corps is this lackluster, it will. Being this dependent on the run is often a losing strategy in a game with this thin a margin of error.

While the RedHawks’ defense is stout, the lack of support from their offense could be a problem. The RedHawks are 100th in SP+ on offense and putting up just the seventh-most yards per game in the conference (362.3). This is an offense that leans on its ground attack and running back Keyon Mozee, but ranks just 107th in EPA per rush. And while QB Brett Gabbert is a MAC veteran, he had as many big-time throws this season as turnover-worthy plays (15), per PFF. Gabbert and Mozee are going to have a tough time against a defense that’s top 70 in EPA per rush and dropback, ranks 45th in SP+, and allows the second-fewest yards per game in the conference (305.8). While the RedHawks beat the Bobcats 30-20 in the regular season, this game will be played at a neutral site on top of the fact that Ohio has won five straight games since then (covering in all of them) while outscoring opponents 189-54.

Georgia ginned up exactly one impressive half this season. Meanwhile, Texas’s defense has only improved, certainly while quarterback Quinn Ewers’ has worked his way back toward full health, multiple injuries bothering him the second half of the year.Since that Georgia tilt, only Vanderbilt and Florida exceeded their team totals against Texas, both doing so only in garbage time. Remove those touchdowns and Vandy pushed its team total while Florida fell 3.5 points short. Across those five games, ignoring those garbage-time tallies, Texas has held opponents an average of 6.3 points below their team totals. The Longhorns are rising while the Bulldogs peaked in Austin six weeks ago.

On the flip side, Louisiana’s defense has been a bend, but don’t break defense. The Cajuns rank 128th in success rate but third in explosiveness, bottling up big plays and making opponents work their way downfield with long and sustained drives. Marshall is 7-0 with dual-threat Braylon Braxton as quarterback, preferring to keep the ball on the ground (16th in rush rate) while gaining 200 rushing yards per game. The Cajuns can be had on the ground (122nd in EPA per rush, 134th in rushing success rate), so expect the Herd to have a solid day on the ground led by running back A.J. Turner (4.54 yards after contact per attempt, conference-leading 54.6% breakaway percentage per PFF). I’ll take the Under in a game where the surest bet is both teams finding success on the ground. Tick, tick, tick.

Despite weeks of indifference, Oregon has enjoyed quality drives on 58.4% of possessions, a bit ahead of Penn State’s 54.4%. Before the November lull, Dillon Gabriel had not thrown for fewer than 250 yards in his last seven games. Reestablishing that potency will have a long-term benefit for Oregon’s title hopes. Drew Allar has thrown only five interceptions this season while averaging 9.4 yards per attempt, a combination that hints at a more dangerous passing game than has been fully unleashed. Given Penn St.’s likelihood of getting loose and Oregon’s presumed want to get back fully on track before the Playoff, these offenses should set to trying to outdo each other.

SMU relies too much on explosive rushes to be trusted in this sudden uptick of competitive level. In the last eight weeks, the Mustangs have faced exactly one team rated within a touchdown of Clemson by the latest SP+ numbers, beating Louisville 34-27 on Oct. 5. Most pertinently, it has been two months since SMU faced a defense this stout, and the Tigers will not give up the mistakes the Mustangs need. Clemson has a top-25 defense against the rush in EPA terms, one that should stay discipline sound against SMU’s rushing attack that succeeds only 42.9% of the time, a middling success rate. Stalling SMU’s offense should then tilt the coaching edge to the Tigers.

One of these teams cannot risk a blowout loss. That would cost SMU a Playoff berth. The other needs to be aggressive in all regards, a win the only way into the Playoff. Clemson already employs a turnover-causing defense and the better passing quarterback in this game. Going against a turnover-prone SMU, that defense and the Tigers’ need to throw the kitchen sink into this ACC title game should provide value in this plus-money underdog. Furthermore, Dabo Swinney is 8-0 in his last eight ACC title game appearances.