NFL Picks

It's been a bit of feast-or-famine for Pollard this year, as in the eight games he's received double-digit carries, he's averaged about 91 rushing yards per game... but has just 108 combined yards in his four other games. Those duds, however, came in games where the Tennessee Titans were either blown out or faced tough defenses. Tennessee faces the Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday, who have allowed 176 yards per game on the ground over their past five games — and with Mac Jones starting at QB, there's almost no threat of the Titans getting blown out.

Ridley has been one of the most dangerous deep threats over the last seven weeks, ranking third among all receivers in targets of 20+ air yards, fifth in yards on deep passes, and eighth in aDOT. He's posted at least one catch of 25+ yards in six of those seven games. This week, Ridley gets to face a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has allowed the third-highest completion percentage in the league, the highest average air yards per attempt, and have allowed 56 completions of 20+ yards and 10 completions of 40+ yards — both the most in the NFL.

Darnold's regular line is as low as 242.5 (with standard vig), but I like the alt-total of 250+ at even money. He's averaged 263 passing yards per game over the last seven weeks and the Atlanta Falcons have been torched by opposing QBs in four of their last five games. Darnold is at his worst when he is under constant pressure but considering how toothless the Falcons' pass rush is — they rank 22nd in passing yards allowed, 27th in pressure rate, and dead last in sacks — I expect Darnold to be at his best.

The Raiders are a different beast since firing Luke Getsy and very different with Aidan O’Connell under center. He looked right at home under interim OC Scott Turner last Friday, passing for 340 yards and two touchdowns in that tough loss to the Chiefs. Vegas is chucking it, throwing on 71% of snaps the past three games under Turner and face a Bucs defense that ranks among the worst at slowing down the air attack, including 32^nd in EPA allowed per dropback since Week 7. Bucs could be down two starting safties and already without their top coverage linebacker – smells like another big day for Brock Bowers. Tampa has given up at least 23 points in seven of its last eight games.

Quarterback play will be the difference in this AFC East showdown. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa paces the league in EPA per play while completing 77.3% of his passes for a respectable 7.6 yards per attempt since returning from a concussion in Week 8, while Jets QB Aaron Rodgers is 22nd in EPA per play with a 63.8 completion percentage and pedestrian 5.9 YPA during the same stretch. Miami was also trending in the right direction on defense with a cleaner bill of health before last week’s setback, so extra rest and a return to Hard Rock Stadium sets up a bounce-back spot against the struggling New York offense.

After ranking dead last in many advanced offensive metrics, the Raiders have seen new life puffed into their playbook under interim OC Scott Turner the past three games. And while jumping from 32^nd to 20^thin EPA per play isn’t exactly a 180 improvement, the Silver & Black are packing more punch in the passing game and looked very good with Aidan O’Connell back under center in Week 13. Tampa Bay’s defense sits 27^th in EPA allowed per play with a weakness defending the pass. Since Week 5, Tampa is 31^st in EPA allowed per dropback while also allowing the highest success rate per pass to rival quarterbacks (51.9%). A touchdown is a lot to lay when you can’t stop an opponent’s air attack. Give me the +7 with the Raiders.

The Vikings' defense has fallen from No. 1 in EPA allowed per play in the opening five weeks to No. 9 since Week 6 and down to No. 11 since Week 11. If we isolate the last two games, that metric falls further to No. 20. The pass defense has been the notable drop off and while Minnesota has been able to contain the likes of Joe Flacco, Mac Jones, and Will Levis in recent games, it gave up 340 yards to Caleb Williams and 260 yards versus Kyler Murray. Cousins is very familiar with Brian Flores’ schemes. The Vikings also run one of the highest usages of zone coverage (second most) and Cousins is a much better passer versus zone schemes. He owns a 70.9% completion rate against zone coverage compared to 52.6% versus man-to-man, with a passer rating of 105.0 against zone defense.

The Seahawks rallied for their third straight win by beating the Jets in New Jersey on Sunday while the Cardinals collapsed at Minnesota, losing 23-22 despite outgaining the Vikings by 133 yards (then going 1-for-6 in the red zone). That loss muddies the waters with Arizona, which has played extremely well on defense in the second half of the season, especially the pass rush. The Cardinals are much better on offense at home, averaging more than 24 points an outing, and host a Seattle squad playing its second straight away game and third road tilt in four weeks. This spread is teetering on a field goal, so I'm snatching up the outright price on the Arizona ML.

Four of Allen's six highest rushing totals this season have come against teams in the top half of the league in pressure rate, with the Los Angeles Rams currently ranked ninth in that category. L.A. has also been burned by mobile QBs so far this season, facing five of the Top 11 QB rushing leaders, with four of them hitting 27 yards — and three going for 39+ yards.

The Bills are better on both sides of the ball, and in particular, I value Buffalo scoring on 49.2% of drives (second) and turning 66.7% of red-zone trips into touchdowns (fourth). Los Angeles sports respective 20th-ranked 35.5% and 53.5% marks. On the flip side, the Rams allow 45.5% of drives to result in points (fifth-highest), while the Bills allow the eighth-fewest (33.1%). Of course, the gap in quarterback play is also significant. Josh Allen paes the NFL in adjusted EPA per play, while Matthew Stafford ranks a middling 19th.

How many touchdowns will the Bengals score in this one? This total has taken off with Joe Burrow & Co. expected to air it out in Jerry’s World. Higgins wasted little time having an impact in this offense, scoring in each of first two games back from injury. The Cowboys will have to pick their poison in terms of Cincy’s receivers – especially if Trevon Diggs sits out again. Dallas’ runs a high rate of zone coverage and Higgins is the No. 8 WR in the land vs zone scheme. Week 14 touchdown projections have Higgins near the top of the table.

Cincinnati has scored 38, 27, and 34 points in its last three games, respectively — all of which were losses vs. solid defensive teams in Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, and Baltimore. Unfortunately, those foes were able to score more, boosting Cincinnati’s Over/Under count to 9-3. The Bengals have Now, the Bengals come to the fast track of Jerry’s World to face a disgraceful Dallas Cowboys defense that just allowed 20 points to the Giants and a third-string QB. "America’s Team" has given up an average of 31 points against since Week 6, leading to a 5-2 O/U count. The Cowboys are on a two-game run thanks to their offense putting up tallies of 27 and 34 points, with backup QB Cooper Rush settling in. dropped three in a row and yet open as 6-point road chalk in Dallas for Monday Night Football.