Free Expert Picks and Predictions

A once-vaunted defense has been bullied in loss to Philadelphia and Baltimore, giving up 54 points on more than 800 total yards allowed. What worse is that the Eagles and Ravens dragged the Steelers defense for a collective 72 minutes of on-field ass-waxing. Not only is that a ton of time logged by the Pittsburgh stop unit, but it came against the two most physical offenses in the NFL. That leaves the Steelers tenderized on another tight turnaround and now facing a methodical Chiefs offense, that slowly moves the chains with one of the most efficient attacks in the NFL. Kansas City is second in time of possession and runs the slowest tempo in the land. Much like bookies setting this spread below a field goal, I want to give the Steelers some respect at home. But I’m not convinced they can defeat the Chiefs, given the trajectory of these two teams and matchup on Xmas Day. I’ll take Kansas City on the moneyline.

Baltimore has surrendered the third-lowest EPA per play and lowest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks while allowing just 19.2 points per game since Week 11, and I don't think the defensive improvements are accounted for in this spread. Of course, the Ravens also pace the NFL in yards per play, dropback EPA per play and PFF offense grade while averaging the third-most points per game (30.1). Additionally, the Houston offensive line could struggle if the Texans have to take it to the air to keep pace with the Ravens. Houston ranks 22nd in PFF pass block grade and 25th in pass-block win rate.

Seattle isn’t mathematically eliminated from the postseason, and the Chicago defense hasn’t shown snarl in weeks. The Bears have allowed the third-highest EPA per play, highest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks and 26.8 points per game during their nine-game losing streak, including 31.0 points per across their past five. Plus, even with the consecutive losses, the Seattle defense has shown up since the Week 10 bye. The Seahawks have surrendered the sixth-lowest EPA per play and YPA to opposing QBs while allowing 19.8 points per game. 

Both teams like to play fast — the South Florida Bulls lead the nation in plays per minute (2.86), while the San Jose State Spartans are ninth (2.54). With all of that tempo, there should be plenty of snaps to look forward to on Christmas Eve. More plays generally means more yardage and more points, so sign me up for an Over on the island. While the transfers are limited, there are a few that will impact both defenses. SJSU will be without both starting corners DJ Harvey and Michael Dansby, leaving sixth-year senior Amir Wallace and redshirt junior Jalen Bainer as the starters. USF will not have the services of starting safety Tawfiq Byard or starting defensive tackle Doug Blue-Eli.

This line fell to -3.5 from -4.5 on the news that San Jose State WR Nick Nash opted out of the Hawai’i Bowl. That -4.5 had that possibility already baked in. The crux of this handicap, though, is Spartans head coach Ken Niumatalolo. He took over a program feeling some abandonment and put together a 7-5 showing in his first season. Now he takes SJSU back to the same bowl it was in last season, but with the added emphasis of Niumatalolo being a native Hawaiian. Furthermore, his father passed away eight days before this game. If ever a team was going to be locked in for a bowl, it’s when returning to the site it enjoyed last year, under a first-year head coach with more emotion in his voice than ever.

Kansas State already ranks No. 18 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per rush, a rank buoyed immensely by explosive plays in comparison to the Wildcats ranking just No. 61 in rushing success rate, more a measure of down-by-down ability. The great news for Kansas State is this fits against Rutgers’s exact weakness. The Knights give up successful rushes on nearly half of opponents’ ground attempts. The Wildcats’ so-so down-by-down rushing ability should see distinct improvement in the Rate Bowl, in part because the offensive line play should level up during December and in part because Rutgers dreads this exact concern.