Free Expert Picks and Predictions

Darnold's regular line is as low as 242.5 (with standard vig), but I like the alt-total of 250+ at even money. He's averaged 263 passing yards per game over the last seven weeks and the Atlanta Falcons have been torched by opposing QBs in four of their last five games. Darnold is at his worst when he is under constant pressure but considering how toothless the Falcons' pass rush is — they rank 22nd in passing yards allowed, 27th in pressure rate, and dead last in sacks — I expect Darnold to be at his best.

The Raiders are a different beast since firing Luke Getsy and very different with Aidan O’Connell under center. He looked right at home under interim OC Scott Turner last Friday, passing for 340 yards and two touchdowns in that tough loss to the Chiefs. Vegas is chucking it, throwing on 71% of snaps the past three games under Turner and face a Bucs defense that ranks among the worst at slowing down the air attack, including 32^nd in EPA allowed per dropback since Week 7. Bucs could be down two starting safties and already without their top coverage linebacker – smells like another big day for Brock Bowers. Tampa has given up at least 23 points in seven of its last eight games.

Ridley has been one of the most dangerous deep threats over the last seven weeks, ranking third among all receivers in targets of 20+ air yards, fifth in yards on deep passes, and eighth in aDOT. He's posted at least one catch of 25+ yards in six of those seven games. This week, Ridley gets to face a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has allowed the third-highest completion percentage in the league, the highest average air yards per attempt, and have allowed 56 completions of 20+ yards and 10 completions of 40+ yards — both the most in the NFL.

Senior running back Tre Stewart is the leading man in the Jacksonville State backfield. Stewart leads the Gamecocks in rushing yards and led C-USA during the regular season with 1,403 rushing yards (1,103 vs. conference opponents). Stewart and quarterback Tyler Huff have each scampered for 1,000+ rushing yards. Huff is a game-time decision, but either way, I expect Stewart to rush for more than 106.5 rushing yards. Western Kentucky owns the worst rushing defense in C-USA play. They’ve surrendered 217 rushing yards per night on 4.8 yards per carry. They held Stewart to only 85 yards on 20 attempts, but I expect Stewie to be the man on Friday. Stewart has cleared 109 rushing yards in six of his past eight. Stewart has been unstoppable, and with Huff’s ankle banged up, the Gamecocks will lean heavily on their top back.

Jacksonville State wide receiver Brock Rechsteiner could be a busy man on Friday. Rechsteiner has at least one reception in every game he’s played this season. He averages 15.8 yards per reception and caught one ball for 10 yards last week against the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky allows 7.8 yards per reception. That’s pretty stingy, and they don’t get beat often for long plays. That makes Rechsteiner a valuable option, especially if Huff can’t run the ball effectively. Rechsteiner is a WR who makes plays. He averages 15.8 yards per reception, with at least one reception in 10 consecutive tilts and three multi-reception games this season. He meets a stingy Hilltoppers pass defense who will likely jam the box to prevent the rush. One reception from Rechsteiner will likely win this bet, and one bet I want to make is for him to clear 8.5 receiving yards.

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are known for big-arm quarterbacks, and sophomore quarterback Caden Veltkamp is no exception. The sophomore signal-caller has thrown for the second-most passing yards in C-USA this season and is coming off a 301-yard passing day in Week 14 against this Jacksonville State Gamecocks defense. The Hilltoppers are a +5 underdog. The game script may call for Vetltkamp to sling the ball more often than his typical 29 times per game. That’s fine because throwing the football is what Vetltcamp does. He’s averaging a career-best 8.3 yards per completion with a 67% completion percentage. Veltkamp should get some help. Jacksonville State doesn’t defend the airways as well as some, allowing a 59.5% completion percentage and 7.6 yards per reception. That amounts to 221 passing yards allowed, and less than optimal for defending Veltkamp.

But these will be a pair of tired teams, and their numbers in playing back-to-backs have me leaning Under the 227.5 scoring line. This will be San Antonio's fifth time playing on consecutive nights, and in each of those games second games, they have only reached the 220-point plateau twice, falling Under this total all four times. Sacramento's games have hit the Over three out of five times on back-to-back nights, but let's add a little context: save for an OT loss in Toronto, where it scored 128 points, the Kings have only mustered an average of 105.5 points across the other four. The fatigue factor plays a big role in this one, and scoring should grind down to rock-fight status by the fourth quarter.

We are going to keep riding the wave here with the Leafs as we took them vs. Nashville and we'll take them here at a cheaper price. They are playing some exceptional hockey of late and with Auston Matthews back and scoring in bunches, the Leafs' depth would give every team a run for their money. Defensively, they are a solid unit and I believe that'll be the difference here at home against a Caps side that's due for some offensive regression.