Free Expert Picks and Predictions

Najee Harris was limited to 63 yards on 18 carries against a tough Ravens run defense last week. However, he had rushed for more than 100 yards in three of his previous four contests and should get plenty of carries in a cold-weather game. The Browns are 25th in the league in defensive rush EPA and have really missed top linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah who has been on the IR since suffering a scary neck injury in Week 8. With the Browns allowing 131.7 yards per game on the ground and ranking 27th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.8), back Harris to go Over his rushing yards on Thursday.

Even if the Browns employ a run-heavy gameplan, I'm not confident in Nick Chubb going Over 53.5 rushing yards vs a Steelers stop unit that ranks eighth in defensive rush EPA and holds opposing running backs to 3.9 yards per carry. Chubb has yet to surpass that number in four games, and he doesn't look anywhere near 100% since coming back from a torn ACL and MCL. That was the same knee that suffered a brutal injury in college, and it's fair to wonder if Chubb will ever be as explosive as he used to be. Chubb was on the field for just 30% of Cleveland's offensive snaps last week and had 11 carries, while backup Jerome Ford logged a 56% snap share with five carries. Chubb hasn't been able to find running room against the Saints, Chargers, and Ravens despite the downfield threat of Winston. With the Steelers able to load up the box and Chubb ceding carries to Ford, fade him here.

Winston has a strong arm but messy weather could affect his deep throws on TNF. The temperature is expected to be just above freezing, with showers that could turn into a wintry mix, but the biggest impact could be the wind off Lake Erie, with breezes projected to be in the 20 mph range. It won't help that the Steelers are seventh in the NFL in defensive dropback EPA while limiting opposing QBs to 6.4 yards per pass attempt. In addition, Cleveland's O-line allows pressure at the highest rate in the league, and LT Jedrick Wills is questionable while right tackle Dawand Jones broke his leg last week. Going up against T.J. Watt and a fierce Steelers pass rush, Winston might not have time to throw deep even if the wind dies down.

It’s gotten so bad for the Boilermakers that head coach Ryan Walters, a defensive coordinator by trade, has even been calling the offensive plays for Purdue at times. No matter who’s calling the plays or playing under center, the Boilermakers have the same result. Purdue is ranked 129th out of 134 in points per game this season (17.2) and has scored 10 points or fewer in six of nine games against FBS teams. It’s an offense that’s 98th in EPA per rush and 121st in EPA per dropback. And it’s not as if Michigan State’s going to hit this Over on its own. The Spartans are worse on offense than Purdue, according to SP+ (117th), and are only scoring slightly more points per game (19.4).

UNLV likes to keep the ball on the ground and is in no hurry whatsoever offensively. Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion’s Go-Go Offense ranks eighth nationally in rush rate and churns out 249.1 yards per game on the ground. UNLV ranks 70th in plays per minute and will likely look to slow things down on the road with a short week of rest against the lightning-quick Spartans. The Spartans are 1-4 O/U in their last five games. Their offense will be put into question by the elements and they’re facing a team that wants to keep the ball on the ground. I’m betting on the Under in a game where the weather should play a factor.

Jacksonville State head coach Rich Rodriguez is about to reaffirm why he was hired. If the Gamecocks win this weekend, they will be locked into the Conference USA title game. Sam Houston State has those same hopes, but the Bearkats still need help. Struggling to blow out coach-less Kennesaw State showed Sam Houston State’s deficiencies, and with these stakes at hand, Jacksonville State should take advantage of those deficiencies in a ground-bound game. Expect the Gamecocks to control this game flow, enough so as to win by at least a touchdown.