The Penn State Nittany Lions took advantage of early opportunities gifted by SMU in Saturday’s first-round Playoff matchup, and that subsequent 38-10 rout may inspire some bettors to blindly back the Nittany Lions against the Boise State Broncos on New Year’s Eve in the Fiesta Bowl.
However, my Penn State vs. Boise State predictions disagree with that thought because of one key Nittany Lions’ weakness that coincides with the obvious Broncos’ strength. Regardless, this will be the only entertainment needed on December 31, with kickoff set for 8:30 pm ET.
Penn State vs Boise State predictions
Early spread lean
Boise State +10.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
We all know what Boise State wants to do. The Broncos’ rushing attack is the best in the country, and Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty will have nearly a month off by the time he lines up opposite Penn State. He should be fresh and ready for contact.
Boise State runs the ball 6.0% more often than the average team would in a given game state. It does so with resounding consistency and effectiveness. If the Broncos are going to spring this upset, it will be because Jeanty nears his season averages of 192 yards and 7.3 yards per carry.
He might be able to against Penn State, as much as Nittany Lions fans will object to that suggestion. Where Penn State excels in this regard is limiting explosive rushes. It fares only decently in shutting down consistent rushing attacks, ranking No. 37 in defensive rushing success rate entering the bowl games. Yes, No. 37 is in the Top 30% of the country, but when facing a ground game like Boise State’s, something stronger may be necessary.
And if the Broncos can pound their way to four yards a carry — and realize, that would be nearly halving Jeanty’s average rush attempt this season — they should be able to keep within contact of Penn State on the scoreboard.
Frankly, that thought is meant as a conservative one. Any Boise State offensive success will obviously help keep the Broncos within range, and a ground-based attack should shorten this game to some extent, lessening the impact of Penn State’s superior athletes.
The No. 2 ground attack in the country — in terms of expected points added (EPA) per rush according to cfb-graphs — would be Oregon’s, otherwise known as the ground attack that rushed 41 times against Penn State in the Big Ten title game, gaining 4.5 yards per carry. The Ducks struggled to break loose, but they kept the chains moving.
Jeanty should do the same.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 52.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The key to this total conversation will be entirely about Boise State’s ability to score. Anyone backing the Broncos against the spread should also focus on the Over.
Meanwhile, Penn State may have the most underrated offense in the country, ranking No. 9 in EPA and holding up against Oregon earlier in December. Those two facts should garner notice. Instead, veteran quarterback Drew Allar remains consistently criticized.
The Broncos will struggle to stop the Nittany Lions, a level of offense they have not faced since week two. Combining that with Jeanty’s expected success should force this game Over its modest total.
Penn State vs Boise State live odds
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