So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?
The Cincinnati Bengals are hanging onto postseason hopes by a thread, and they play host to the Cleveland Browns for an AFC North clash on Sunday, December 22.
My top Browns vs. Bengals predictions and NFL picks are calling for Cincy to take care of business and keep their playoff dreams alive with a convincing Week 16 win.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, with the game airing on FOX.
Browns vs Bengals prediction
Browns vs Bengals spread prediction
In the interest of brevity, this is a quarterback matchup between Joe Burrow at home and Dorian Thompson-Robinson on the highway, and I’m not convinced that’s fully priced into this spread. Thompson-Robinson will be making just his fourth career start, and the Browns have only won once on the road all season. Cleveland also ranks 31st in DVOA. The Bengals might be flawed, but they’re not Brownies flawed.
Browns vs Bengals moneyline prediction
Cincinnati isn’t mathematically eliminated from the postseason yet, so I’m anticipating them to show up Sunday at Paycor Stadium. Cleveland has lost five of its past six, and the Browns have scored the third-fewest points per game (17.1) for the year. Turning to a third-string quarterback is a bold strategy to try to cure the offensive woes.
Browns vs Bengals Over/Under prediction
The Bengals have been an Over ATM this season with a 10-4 record, but it’s because their offense is elite. However, I’m just not convinced the Browns can put up enough points to push this total Over the number, so I lean to the Under 47.
My best bet
Bengals -8.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I’m backing the Cincinnati Bengals because they still have a mathematical chance to make the playoffs, and the Cleveland Browns are starting third-string quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
There has already been line movement to the Cincy side, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the action continues to come in on the Bengals.
Cleveland ranks 31st in DVOA and EPA per play, and while the Brownies have teeth on defense, there hasn’t been a stop unit to truly cool the Bengals this season. Cincy is fifth in points per game (28.5) and EPA per play and eighth in yards per play (5.8).
Defense has been a clear weakness for Cincinnati, but I’m not anticipating the Thompson-Robinson led Browns to fully capitalize on Sunday. This is a lost season for Cleveland, and the Browns have a dreadful 4-10 against the spread and have covered the number just a single time through their past six games.
Cleveland has also only won on the highway once all season, and that was all the way back in Week 2 against the equally flawed Jacksonville Jaguars.
I’m happy to lay the wood with Cincy and quarterback Joe Burrow against the broken Browns with nothing to play for.
Browns vs Bengals same-game parlay
Bengals -8.5
Tee Higgins Over 70.5 receiving yards
Cade York Over 1.5 field goals
The Browns play man coverage at the second-highest rate (38.9%) in the league, and Cincy wide receiver Tee Higgins leads the Bengals with a 29.7% target percentage against man. He’s also recorded 77 or more receiving yards in five of the past seven games while averaging 81.4 yards on 5.9 receptions per during the stretch.
Higgins is also sporting a career-low 11.7 aDoT, and his 13.4 yards per reception is also slightly below his 14.2 career mark, so there’s potential for a slight splash of statistical correction coming his way. Additionally, I also expect him to see him bully the undersized Cleveland defensive backs on Sunday.
I’m targeting Cade York in the field goal market because the weather forecast isn’t calling for prohibitive winds Sunday, and the Browns limit third-down conversions at the ninth-best rate (59.1%).
As a result, I’m anticipating a few stalled drives for the Bengals resulting in field-goal opportunities for York. He’s also hit all three of his field goals since taking over kicking duties in Week 14.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Browns vs Bengals odds
Browns vs Bengals live odds
Browns vs Bengals opening odds
- Spread: Cleveland +7 | Cincinnati -7
- Moneyline: Cleveland +260 | Cincinnati -350
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Browns vs Bengals spread and Over/Under analysis
- As noted, there has been a significant move to the Cincy side of this spread, with BetMGM moving off the opening -7 to -8.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- This move aligns with the clear mismatch of the two teams, and I particularly hone in on the experience and talent gap between the two quarterbacks. Expect the Bengals to be one of the most popular teaser inclusions this week, too.
- Similar to the spread, there has also been a clear move the Under in this AFC North matchup. BetMGM opened with a 49.5 total, and the game has been bet all the way down to 47 as of Friday afternoon.
- I do think the Under is the play because it’s a divisional contest, and the Browns have scored the third-fewest points per game (17.1). Additionally, as noted, I do expect Cleveland to show up on defense and force a few of Cincy’s scoring drives to end in field goals instead of touchdowns.
- 72% of Covers Consensus users are backing Cincinnati on the spread, while 61% are taking the Over.
Browns vs Bengals betting trend to know
The Browns are 4-10 against the spread this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Bengals.
Browns vs Bengals game info
| Location: | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-22-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Browns vs Bengals latest injuries
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