The last image of the Ohio State Buckeyes on a football field focused on a Michigan flag at the center of the Horseshoe. Any Tennessee vs. Ohio State predictions can be forgiven for wondering if Ohio State has successfully wiped that memory from its psyche enough to focus on the Volunteers in the first round of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
The Buckeyes’ downfall that day was entirely of the offense’s doing, not the defense’s, which held Michigan to just 13 points, seven of them coming thanks to a Wolverines interception returned to the two-yard line.
My free college football picks will continue to put faith in the Buckeyes’ defense. It deserves that faith, and kickoff will confirm it on Saturday, December 21.
Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Ohio Stadium in Columbus, with the game airing on ABC and ESPN.
Tennessee vs Ohio State prediction and best bet
Tennessee vs. Ohio State spread prediction: Ohio State -7.5
Let’s discard Josh Heupel’s debut season at Tennessee to be fair with this coming trend; the Volunteers went 7-5 in the regular season, Heupel’s offense needing more than an overnight to develop its rhythm.
But by 2022, Tennessee was humming, going 28-8 outright and 22-14 against the spread since. In those three regular seasons, the Volunteers have been underdogs exactly six times, three times against Georgia and three times against Alabama. Tennessee has gone 2-4 both outright and ATS in those moments, including 0-3 on the road.
Going on the road as an underdog is rather unfamiliar and uncomfortable territory for Heupel at Tennessee, certainly when going north to Columbus where temperatures will drop into the teens on Saturday night.
That hook might be worrying, but it is not as worrying as Heupel’s experiences on the road as an underdog thus far.
Tennessee vs. Ohio State moneyline prediction: Ohio State -300
When not facing Michigan — yes, that is a notable exception, but sometimes rivalries and their defiance of logic should be discarded from other conversations — Ohio State has won 26 straight home games. And let’s note, plenty of those have been quality opponents.
Right now, Indiana stands as the No. 10 team in ESPN’s SP+ ratings, the most widely accepted advanced rankings. Penn State finished 2023 at No. 5 in those regards. Take away garbage-time touchdowns and Ohio State won those two games each handily both outright and against the spread, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by 13.5 and 10 points, respectively.
Not for nothing, but the Volunteers currently grade as fewer than three points better than the 2024 Hoosiers and the 2023 Nittany Lions. Yes, Tennessee is better than both of those, but it is not so much better as to notably cut into what has been Ohio State’s margin for error at home against anyone but Michigan.
Tennessee vs. Ohio State total prediction: Under 46.5
In all the talk about the Ohio State drama following the Buckeyes’ third straight loss to Michigan, we as a college football-loving community have failed to spend enough time discussing this defensive matchup. This has the lowest total of the four first-round Playoff games not only because it will be the coldest, but also because these are the two best defenses in the country.
Well, if looking at SP+ ratings, they are two of the top three, Ohio State at No. 1 and Tennessee at No. 3. In terms of expected points added (EPA) per snap against, Ohio State is No. 1 and Tennessee is No. 2, according to cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. In defensive success rate, Tennessee comes in at No. 1 with Ohio State at No. 2.
Any conversation of the best defensive lines in the country has to feature these two.
The falling temperatures will inspire some Under bets. The defenses should have sparked Under bets the moment this matchup was announced.
My best bet
Tennessee team total Under 19.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Josh Heupel’s offense relies on dynamic receivers getting into space and a quarterback making single-decision reads. When it finds a receiver that can break coverages and has exact timing with the quarterback, it is a delight to watch. But when it does not have such a receiver or a quarterback with that perfect timing, it grinds to a halt against top-tier defenses.
No defense is as regularly stellar as Georgia’s, but so as to add some heft to this sample size, let’s also include Alabama’s of the last three years. Set aside Heupel’s first season in Knoxville as he remade the roster to run this offense.
In their six games against Georgia and Alabama across the last three years, the Volunteers have averaged 22.7 points. In 27 other regular-season FBS matchups, Tennessee has averaged 41.2 points.
Who is Ohio State more comparable to, Georgia and Alabama or the rest of the SEC? This year more than ever given the absolute thoroughness of the defense, the Buckeyes are more in line with the Bulldogs and the Tide.
Now realize that average of 22.7 points across those six games has been inflated by two home games against the Tide, including a 52-point showing in 2022. First of all, this weekend’s task will obviously be on the road. Second of all, some of that scoring output came from Alabama’s offensive design -- happy to put up points unlike the current Ohio State, a team built to win with its defense and its offensive line.
Remove those two games and the average falls to 15 points per game across four games.
The Buckeyes enjoy one of the best defensive coordinators in the country in Jim Knowles, someone who knows he has a defensive line that can create pressure without added blitzers and a defensive backfield that can hang with any receivers in the country. He will be able to employ just about any design he wants at any moment to hassle sophomore Nico Iamaleava, whose performances have been, charitably, up-and-down this season.
Set aside the hassles of the weather. Tennessee’s offense is simply not built to go against defenses of this caliber. That has been seen before, and it should be seen again this weekend.
Under 53.5 points
Ohio State moneyline
Will Howard anytime touchdown
The want was to combine the Tennessee team total Under 19.5 points with a Nico Iamaleava passing yardage Under prop and a Will Howard anytime touchdown. Alas, BetMGM does not offer team totals or yardage Unders in its same-game parlay menu.
So, instead, combining the alternate Under of 53.5 with the Ohio State moneyline replaces the Tennessee Team Total Under. That combination pays out on its own at -105, a step forward from the Team Total Under 19.5 price of -120.
The alternate Under of 53.5 protects against Ohio State running up the score, likely via defensive havoc, which is the biggest reason to worry about the game’s Under of 46.5.
When it comes to a Will Howard touchdown, first realize he has scored in seven games this season and was an awkward fumble within a foot of the goal line at Penn State from making that eight. Then remember how Ohio State lost to Michigan. A Howard interception returned to the two-yard line cost the Buckeyes the game more than anything else did.
A veteran quarterback with big-game experience will seek to redeem himself from that mistake. And one who grew up in Pennsylvania will not be bothered by the cold.
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Tennessee vs Ohio State odds
Tennessee vs Ohio State live odds
Tennessee vs Ohio State opening odds
- Tennessee vs. Ohio State spread: Ohio State -7.5
- Tennessee vs. Ohio State moneyline: Tennessee +220, Ohio State -275
- Tennessee vs. Ohio State Over/Under: 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Tennessee vs Ohio State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Ohio State opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and this spread has not moved in two weeks. When sportsbooks have tried to move down to -7, they have been pushed back to -7.5 within hours, if not minutes.
- There is something to be said for a spread unable to find life at +7. Every sharp bettor and oddsmaker is effectively saying, -7 would be a far too obvious bet. If anything can be gleaned from that, it is distinct faith in the Buckeyes.
- This total opened at 46.5 when the bracket was released and climbed to 47.5 for a few days before falling back to 46.5 more than a week ago. As the weather forecast has gotten a bit chillier, some books have even nudged down to 46.
- 63% of Covers Consensus users are backing Tennessee on the spread, while 59% are taking the Over.
Tennessee vs Ohio State betting trend to know
On the surface, the Buckeyes may be a ho-hum totals team, cashing five Overs and seven Unders this season, but three of those Overs were against Group of Five opponents. Ohio State cashed seven Unders in nine Big Ten games, all seven of those final scores also falling short of this Playoff total. Find more college football betting trends for Tennessee vs Ohio State.
Tennessee vs Ohio State game info
| Location: | Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-21-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC, ESPN |
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