The New Orleans Saints not only battle the Green Bay Packers but the Wisconsin winter on Monday Night Football.
The forecast for Lambeau Field calls for a mix of snow and rain early into this Week 16 finale, with temperatures far from the controlled climate of the Superdome.
My Saints vs. Packers predictions see no world in which New Orleans will be able to keep pace once things kick off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN — find out why in tonight's free NFL picks.
Saints vs Packers MNF predictions
- Spread pick: Packers -14.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
- Moneyline pick: Packers (-1000 at FanDuel)
- Over/Under pick: Under 42.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
- Best bet: Packers -14.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
Saints vs Packers spread prediction
A two-touchdown spread is a lot, but we often see these one-sided spreads toward the end of the season — and for good reasons.
There are plenty of purposes for this pile of points and not many reasons to think New Orleans could keep it any closer. More on this wager below.
Saints vs Packers moneyline prediction
With a spread this big, it’s tough to go against the grain. Home favorites of 14+ points own an 85-6 SU record since 2010 — a 93% win rate. The current moneyline odds are at Packers -1000, which carries an implied win probability of 92%. It's not a number I want to bet on, but the Cheese stands alone in this one.
Saints vs Packers Over/Under prediction
The total has bounced between 42.5 and 41.5 points for Monday Night Football. The Saints will have backup Spencer Rattler under center and will not have versatile RB Alvin Kamara. The Saints have mustered scores of 13, 14, and 22 points in outdoor games this season, and those were in much milder conditions than Lambeau at night in the middle of December.
As for the Packers, they’re anchoring their attack in the ground game, and should the game script hold up, we’ll see Green Bay grind it out on the ground in the second half as they protect a big lead. I like the Under on Monday night.
Saints vs Packers best bet
Pick: Packers -14.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Depending on where you bet, you can still get the Green Bay Packers as a 14-point home favorite, while other books have ticked up a half-point on the other side of the key spread.
Getting the best of the number is always vital, but I’m confident the contrasting talent on the field, as well as the home-field edge, will see the Packers punish the New Orleans Saints by 15 or more points on Monday Night Football.
New Orleans is again without QB1 Derek Carr, leaving Spencer Rattler to suit up under center in Week 16. The rookie passer was lost in his first road start as a pro, completing only 12 of 24 attempts for 156 yards in a loss to the Chargers in Week 8.
The difference between SoFi Stadium in October and Lambeau Field for a primetime game in December is about as drastic a shift in venue as you could find in the NFL. All the practice reps in the team’s walk-in freezer can’t prepare the first-year QB for what he’ll face Monday night.
Outside of the elements and crowd noise, Rattler has a diminished offense around with RB Alvin Kamara sidelined and WR Chris Olave still out, along with WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling running the risk of missing MNF with illness and a chest injury.
Moving the chains without those skill players is daunting, especially when you’re facing a Green Bay stop unit that ranks No. 6 in EPA allowed per play and tightens that grip at home, where opponents average just 18.1 points per visit.
The Packers aren’t a high-pressure pass rush and instead play a ball-hawking style that has scored the fourth most takeaways (26). The game script says the Saints will be trailing, which forces the rookie QB to play faster and throw more. That puts Rattler right in the jaws of this defense. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a defensive touchdown from the Pack in primetime.
Offensively, the Packers will bulldoze the NOLA defense with a relentless rushing attack. Green Bay runs at the third-highest rate and boasts the 10th-best run game in terms of EPA per carry on the season, with those metrics spiking in the second half of the schedule.
The Saints, on the other hand, sit among the basement dwellers when it comes to stuffing the run. New Orleans owns the 30th-ranked run stop win rate at ESPN and is 29th in EPA allowed per carry and 30th in opponent success rate per run.
Considering the conditions, it won’t take long for the Saints' defense to crack under that constant pounding and we’ll see this team quit at some point in the second half.
Saints vs Packers MNF same-game parlay
Packers -14.5
Under 42.5
Josh Jacobs anytime touchdown
The Packers are pushing for a wild card spot and have a huge advantage over NOLA in a Wisconsin winter Monday night.
The Saints have trouble scoring on the road, even when they’re healthy. New Orleans is banged-up and a rookie QB will have a long night at Lambeau in Week 16.
The Packers will ground and pound a poor Saints’ run-stop, with Josh Jacobs cracking the end zone for a touchdown on Monday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Saints vs Packers odds
Saints vs Packers live odds
Saints vs Packers opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +12.5 | Green Bay -12.5
- Moneyline: New Orleans +650 | Green Bay -1000
- Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Saints vs Packers spread and Over/Under analysis
• Green Bay opened as a 12.5-point home chalk with Saints QB Derek Carr’s status up in the air for a return in Week 16. But with Carr ruled out and Kamara injured, this spread smashed through the key number of -14.
• The total opened at 42.5 points and bounced between that opener and 41.5 points. The weather looked much worse earlier in the week, but the forecast should see a rain/snow mix pass by, leading this total upwards to 42.5 O/U.
• According to Covers Consensus, 61% of spread picks are on the big home favorite while 68% of total picks are taking the Over.
Saints vs Packers betting trend to know
The chilly weather in Wisconsin gives Green Bay an extra edge at home. The Packers are 27-8 SU and 20-13-2 ATS at Lambeau Field between Week 15 and Week 18 since 2000 (60% ATS). Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Packers.
Saints vs Packers game info
| Location: | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| Date: | Monday, 12-23-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN, ABC |
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