The New Orleans Saints make a “Tibb’s Eve” trip to Wisconsin to face the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football.
The December 23 prime-time pairing has a big spread (Green Bay -14) and a low total on the board, with NOLA missing some key skill players.
That leaves the anytime touchdown odds pricing the Packers’ top weapons at a premium in this popular prop market.
Here are my best NFL picks and anytime touchdown props for Saints at Packers on December 23.
Saints anytime touchdown pick
Juwan Johnson anytime touchdown
+600 at FanDuel
The New Orleans Saints have backup Spencer Rattler under center and given the game script, he’ll need to pass plenty to keep pace with the Green Bay Packers.
New Orleans is already down pass-catching RB Alvin Kamara, and WR Chris Olave is not ready to return from a concussion. On top of those missing targets, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling is questionable for MNF.
That means Juwan Johnson’s role in the playbook gets a boost. The tight end is already seeing a significant uptick in snaps with Taysom Hill out for the season. Johnson has taken part in 70% or more of snaps the past three games, drawing 15 targets for a combined 11 receptions and almost 100 yards in that span.
He’s also been a red-zone threat, scoring a touchdown against the Giants in Week 14. That 11-yard TD catch gave Johnson his third score of the season (he also scored in Week 11) and should the Saints sniff the end zone in Week 16, Rattler will be looking the 6-foot-4 tight end's way.
The Packers do have injuries in the secondary, with starting strong safety Javon Bullard out and his replacement Evan Williams listed as questionable. Linebacker Quay Walker is also out, leaving Green Bay thin when it comes to covering the tight end position.
The Cheeseheads have had trouble tying down TEs this year, giving up the eighth-most receptions and seventh-most yardage to the position along with four touchdowns from rival tight ends.
Packers anytime touchdown pick
Chris Brooks anytime touchdown
+500 at FanDuel
A two-touchdown spread writes a game script that says the Packers will be playing with a big lead late into this game. That means two things: running and backups.
Add those together and you get Chris Brooks.
Brooks is the RB2 behind Josh Jacobs and has surpassed Emanuel Wilson as the primary backup, playing just short of 28% of snaps since Week 11. He’s also garnered red-zone runs in that span and he’ll be out there chewing up the clock in the second half if things get out of hand on Monday.
Helping Brooks’ case is a New Orleans defense rolling out the red carpet for running backs. The Saints sit in the basement in just about every run-stop metric, including 14 total rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs this season (third most).
Brooks has yet to score a touchdown in 2024, which is why we see his anytime TD price paying out at 5/1 in Week 16. But given Jacobs is drawing his shortest odds of the season (as expensive as -280) vs. the Saints, you can see why the Packers’ other RB is worth a wager.
Not intended for use in MA.
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