NFL MVP Odds: Jackson Surges After Allen Injury Scare

Lamar Jackson entered Week 16 with an increasingly slim chance at winning back-to-back NFL MVP awards. But, a massive showing vs. Pittsburgh combined with a nightmare day for Josh Allen has him crawling back up the board with two weeks left.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Phil Naessens ? Betting Analyst
Dec 22, 2024 ? 20:31 ET ? 4 min read
Lamar Jackson Baltimore Ravens NFL
Photo By - Imagn Images.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson re-entered the NFL MVP conversation by firing three touchdown passes on Saturday against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

NFL MVP odds frontrunner Josh Allen had a tough day, including a possible injury to his throwing hand. The betting public responded, and Jackson is closer on the NFL odds board than he has been in a month.

Read on as I take a closer look at the NFL MVP odds as we head into Week 17. 

NFL MVP odds

Player DraftKings
49ers Josh Allen -600
Ravens Lamar Jackson +425
Eagles Saquon Barkley +1000
Lions Jared Goff +2000
Bengals Joe Burrow +6000
Vikings Sam Darnold +7000
Buccaneers Baker Mayfield +7500
Chiefs Patrick Mahomes +7500

An uneven game followed by a potential hand injury to Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen might have opened the door a smidgeon for Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson

The betting public followed and allowed Jackson to further separate himself from Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley and inch closer to Allen on the NFL MVP odds board.

Lamar Jackson season to date

Jackson has thrown for the second-most passing yards (3787) and a league-leading 37 touchdown passes with an additional 765 rushing yards and four trips to the house. 

The Ravens signal-caller fired three scoring strikes Saturday afternoon in a huge 34-17 home victory over the Steelers. 

The public response was slow, but interest in Jackson spiked (+425) after watching Allen's Week 16 struggles paired with a potential injury to his throwing hand suffered Sunday against the New England Patriots.

Jackson began the season at +900 to land his third career regular-season MVP. His odds to win have dipped as low as +1860 on September 24 and, until November 12, was a slight betting odds favorite (+101).

Since then, Jackson’s NFL MVP odds have risen and fallen. He did ultimately remove Patrick Mahomes from the conversation and has put Barkley (+1000) in his rearview mirror.

With two games remaining on the regular season schedule, Jackson is closer in the betting odds than he’s been since Allen accounted for six touchdowns in a December 8 away loss to the Los Angeles Rams.

Looking ahead

There is a path, albeit a narrow one, for Jackson to sneak in and win his second consecutive trophy.

Baltimore would love to win the AFC North and can run the table at Houston and at home vs. the Browns. 

Both are winnable games for Baltimore. Jackson can buttress his case by producing a monster game against a stout Texans defense and an always-tough season finale against rival Cleveland.

Jackson has had success against both. He is 3-0 lifetime against the Texans and 7-4-0 against the Browns.

If Jackson has big games over the final two weeks and Allen's prognosis proves negative, the Ravens QB could rise back to the top of the mountain.

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Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the tennis betting podcast, This Week in Tennis.

Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications including SB Nation, FanSided and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports. Phil curates the Chip and Charge Tennis Newsletter and pens a weekly tennis column called “10 Things About the ATP Tour," for Passing Shot Productions. 

His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.

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