Detroit @ Indianapolis props

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Lions, who are a huge favorite by 7 points. The Lions have called the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 55.9 plays per game. Sam LaPorta's 29.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 45.9. Sam LaPorta's receiving talent has tailed off this year, compiling a mere 2.8 adjusted catches vs 5.0 last year.

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Lions are forecasted by the predictive model to call 66.4 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. The predictive model expects Jahmyr Gibbs to total 3.8 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 90th percentile among RBs. Jahmyr Gibbs's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 73.7% to 81.3%. As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Indianapolis's group of LBs has been lousy this year, profiling as the 7th-worst in football.

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Lions are forecasted by the predictive model to call 66.4 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. This week, Amon-Ra St. Brown is projected by the projections to land in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.9 targets. With a remarkable 6.5 adjusted receptions per game (97th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown places as one of the top wide receivers in the game in the league. The Colts pass defense has surrendered the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (71.7%) to wide receivers this year (71.7%).

This game's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Colts, who are heavy -7-point underdogs. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 131.2 offensive plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year. The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

This game's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Colts, who are heavy -7-point underdogs. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 131.2 offensive plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year. Josh Downs's pass-catching performance improved this season, notching 5.6 adjusted catches vs a measly 4.0 last season.

This game's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Colts, who are heavy -7-point underdogs. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 131.2 offensive plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year. Jonathan Taylor has gone out for more passes this year (58.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (47.1%).