Detroit @ Indianapolis props

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Lions, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points. The Lions have called the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 55.9 plays per game. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Indianapolis's unit has been very good this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.

This game's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Colts, who are heavy -7.5-point underdogs. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 131.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Detroit Lions defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year. Josh Downs's pass-catching performance improved this season, notching 5.6 adjusted catches vs a measly 4.0 last season.