Minnesota @ Chicago props

Cole Kmet has been a much smaller part of his team's passing offense this season (13.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (20.4%). Cole Kmet's play as a receiver has tailed off this year, totaling a mere 3.6 adjusted receptions compared to 4.9 last year. The Minnesota Vikings linebackers profile as the 4th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

D.J. Moore's 24.4% Target Share this season indicates a substantial decrease in his air attack workload over last season's 30.0% rate. D.J. Moore's pass-catching performance declined this season, totaling a measly 4.6 adjusted catches compared to 5.7 last season. D.J. Moore's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 73.2% to 66.0%. The Minnesota Vikings linebackers profile as the 4th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Bears are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their normal game plan. At a mere 27.75 seconds per snap, the Bears offense rates as the 7th-fastest paced in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year. The Minnesota Vikings defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, enticing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (37.6 per game) this year. D'Andre Swift has run a route on 52.0% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs. With an exceptional 2.8 adjusted receptions per game (83rd percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift places among the top pass-game RBs in the league.

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.5% pass rate. The projections expect T.J. Hockenson to total 6.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile among TEs. With an impressive 5.9 adjusted receptions per game (97th percentile) since the start of last season, T.J. Hockenson places as one of the best pass-catching TEs in the NFL. T.J. Hockenson's 82.5% Adjusted Catch Rate this season illustrates a substantial improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 75.2% figure.

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script. The leading projections forecast the Vikings to run the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Minnesota Vikings have run the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 56.1 plays per game. Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Bears, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 31.9 per game) this year. The Bears safeties rank as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.5% pass rate. The projections expect Justin Jefferson to accrue 9.8 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wideouts. Justin Jefferson's 78.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 70.9. With a fantastic 5.9 adjusted receptions per game (94th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson rates as one of the best WRs in the NFL in the NFL.