New England @ Miami props

The leading projections forecast this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Patriots offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.6%) versus TEs this year (70.6%).

This week's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are heavily favored by 7.5 points. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 55.4% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the projection model to call only 62.5 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week. Tyreek Hill's 61.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 77.5. Tyreek Hill's 4.2 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a remarkable decline in his receiving prowess over last year's 7.4 figure.

This week's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are heavily favored by 7.5 points. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to pass on 55.4% of their chances: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are projected by the projection model to call only 62.5 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week. The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (82.5%) versus RBs this year (82.5%).

The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a massive 60.0 plays per game. The model projects Jonnu Smith to total 6.1 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among TEs. Jonnu Smith's 35.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 28.8. With a stellar 3.9 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) this year, Jonnu Smith has been as one of the top pass-catching TEs in the league. Jonnu Smith's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 71.6% to 77.6%.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Patriots being an enormous -7.5-point underdog this week. Demario Douglas's 4.5 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects a significant boost in his pass-catching skills over last season's 3.5 figure. Demario Douglas's 77.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents a material progression in his receiving prowess over last year's 64.1% figure. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.7%) versus wide receivers this year (69.7%). As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Miami's collection of LBs has been very bad this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in football.