Kansas City @ Carolina props

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Panthers being a heavy -10.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The leading projections forecast Adam Thielen to be much more involved in his team's passing offense this week (19.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (12.8% in games he has played). With a terrific 5.6 adjusted catches per game (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Adam Thielen ranks among the leading WRs in the game in the NFL.

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Panthers being a heavy -11-point underdog in this week's contest.

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Panthers being a heavy -11-point underdog in this week's contest. This year, the porous Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has yielded a colossal 80.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 7th-highest rate in the NFL.

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 65.8% pass rate. The predictive model expects DeAndre Hopkins to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing game in this contest (19.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (13.6% in games he has played). The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board. DeAndre Hopkins's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 56.6% to 74.7%. This year, the anemic Carolina Panthers pass defense has given up a staggering 68.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 7th-biggest rate in football.

An extreme throwing game script is indicated by the Panthers being a heavy -11-point underdog in this week's contest. Chuba Hubbard has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (55.6% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (42.6%). Our trusted projections expect Chuba Hubbard to garner 3.9 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs. With an outstanding 3.0 adjusted catches per game (89th percentile) this year, Chuba Hubbard has been among the best pass-game running backs in the NFL.

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 65.8% pass rate. Kareem Hunt has gone out for more passes this season (42.2% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (22.4%). The Kansas City offensive line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board. Kareem Hunt's receiving performance has improved this season, notching 2.0 adjusted receptions vs a measly 1.0 last season. Kareem Hunt's 94.5% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last year's 70.9% rate.

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 65.8% pass rate. The predictive model expects Travis Kelce to notch 8.5 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile among TEs. Travis Kelce's 58.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 50.2. Travis Kelce has been one of the leading pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a stellar 6.2 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 99th percentile. This year, the porous Panthers pass defense has yielded a colossal 79.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 9th-highest rate in football.