San Francisco @ Green Bay props

The 49ers may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be starting backup quarterback Brandon Allen. A throwing game script is suggested by the 49ers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. The model projects George Kittle to notch 6.5 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among tight ends. George Kittle's 5.4 adjusted catches per game this year illustrates a substantial progression in his receiving prowess over last year's 4.0 rate. This year, the anemic Green Bay Packers pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 81.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-biggest rate in football.

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on running than their usual approach. With a 55.7% rate of passing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in the NFL has been the Green Bay Packers. Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Green Bay Packers are predicted by the projection model to call just 63.3 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number among all teams this week. This year, the stout 49ers defense has allowed a paltry 73.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 10th-smallest rate in football. The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the best group of LBs in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

This week, Josh Jacobs is predicted by the projections to finish in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.6 targets. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers profiles as the 4th-best in football this year. Josh Jacobs's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 69.0% to 85.8%. The 49ers pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (89.4%) to running backs this year (89.4%).

The 49ers may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be starting backup quarterback Brandon Allen. A throwing game script is suggested by the 49ers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. Christian McCaffrey has run a route on 79.6% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs. In this week's game, Christian McCaffrey is expected by the model to slot into the 100th percentile among running backs with 6.1 targets. Christian McCaffrey rates as one of the best pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.3 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 98th percentile.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Packers safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Jayden Reed's 75.4% Route% this season reflects a significant boost in his pass attack utilization over last season's 63.4% mark. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers profiles as the 4th-best in football this year. With a stellar 3.9 adjusted catches per game (75th percentile) this year, Jayden Reed rates among the leading WRs in the game in the NFL. Jayden Reed's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 72.1% to 79.0%.