Thanksgiving is done and the remains of the holiday are being made into soup, courting the calendar into December and ringing the opening bell for the countdown to Christmas.
That sound also signals the beginning of the end of the football season, which is a very tricky time for NFL handicapping.
Week 14 is the first step on the home stretch of the schedule, with plenty of teams pushing for postseason spots. And ever since the league extended the playoff cut to 14 teams in 2020, we have more clubs playing with motivation in those final five weeks.
Has that broader postseason chase given underdogs extra bite down the home stretch? Not really.
Point spread pups have covered at a 50% clip from Week 14 to Week 18 (or Week 17 before 2021) since 2020, which is a slight uptick from 49.5% since realignment in 2002.
It does, however, add another factor to consider when the temptation to take the points sets in. In fact, there are several unique elements NFL bettors must weigh that only show up at this time of the year.
Are teams outside the playoff cut buying into a push or are they already booking vacation on January 6? Is a coach or QB fighting for their job in December? Are players who were injured earlier in the season making their return? And of course, are playoff-bound teams looking to rest up for the tournament ahead?
It all makes for a frenzied and fun finish to the NFL regular season and challenges Christmas’ claim as the “Most Wonderful Time of the Year”.
Here are my best NFL picks for Week 14.
Last week: 3-0 ATS
Season: 20-16 ATS
NFL Week 14 predictions and picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Green Bay Packers (+3.5) at Detroit Lions pick
My pick: Green Bay Packers +3.5
(-112 at FanDuel)
Given the Detroit Lions’ incredible success against the spread, you rarely see the point spread move away from the best bet in football.
However, the Lions opened as 4.5-point home favorites for this massive Thursday Night Football showdown with the Green Bay Packers, and that number was knocked down a full point in the minutes after post.
That early action is weary of Detroit’s defense entering Week 14, with a slew of bodies missing at all three levels. The Lions are most impacted by injuries up front, with the defensive line down a number of starters and the linebacker corps also running thin.
Detroit has been able to skirt those soft spots against weaker competition but started to show cracks in the second half of the close Thanksgiving win over the Chicago Bears. The Green Bay Packers present the strongest offensive test for the Lions, especially with the way Green Bay has been able to run the ball.
The Cheeseheads have a great blend of passing and rushing in their playbook, utilizing the ground game at one of the highest rates in the second half of the schedule. Green Bay is No. 7 in EPA per handoff since Week 7 and I fully expect it to attack the Lions’ run-stoppers (or what’s left of them) to control possession and pace Thursday night.
Detroit is hoping to turn this one into a shootout but runs into a stout Green Bay stop unit. The Packers held the Lions to just 261 yards on 4.7 yards per play in their Week 9 loss at home, as well as only 17 points to Detroit’s offense (Lions scored on a pick-six).
Since then, the Cheeseheads enjoyed a bye in Week 10 and then won three straight games, checking Chicago, San Francisco, and Miami to a combined 46 points. The Packers rank third best in points allowed per play in the span (0.256).
This is the biggest game of the year for Green Bay, as it chases Detroit in the NFC North standings but also pushes for a Wild Card ticket to the postseason. I’ll grab the half-point hook on the field goal.
Las Vegas Raiders (+7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick
My pick: Las Vegas Raiders +7
(-107 at BetRivers)
There was nowhere to go but up for the Las Vegas Raiders after firing offensive coordinator Luke Getsy a month ago.
After ranking dead last in many advanced offensive metrics, the Raiders have seen new life puffed into their playbook under interim OC Scott Turner the past three games. And while jumping from 32nd to 20th in EPA per play isn’t exactly a 180 improvement, the Silver & Black are packing more punch in the passing game and looked very good with Aidan O’Connell back under center in Week 13.
O’Connell returned from the broken thumb last Friday, passing for 340 yards and two touchdowns at Kansas City. He had Las Vegas on the doorstep of greatness, but a botched snap and some help from the refs took away the Raiders’ shot at a game-winning field goal as 13.5-point road underdogs.
All in all, Las Vegas put up 434 yards against the Chiefs, which was tempered by nine penalties for 101 yards against. With Turner calling the shots, the Raiders have averaged 377 yards of offense in the past three outings compared to just 280 per game in the first nine weeks. Two of those games had Gardner Minshew under center.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter this Week 14 non-conference clash on a two-game run, but those victories came against the Giants and Panthers — the latter of which required overtime.
Tampa Bay’s defense sits 27th in EPA allowed per play, with a weakness defending the pass. Since Week 5, Tampa is 31st in EPA allowed per dropback while also allowing the highest success rate per pass to rival quarterbacks (51.9%).
A touchdown is a lot to lay when you can’t stop an opponent’s air attack. Give me +7 with the Raiders.
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Atlanta Falcons (+5) at Minnesota Vikings pick
My pick: Atlanta Falcons +5
(-110 at Caesars)
Kirk Cousins’ return to Minneapolis has lost a bit of its luster, with the Atlanta Falcons quarterback throwing four interceptions in the team’s loss to the L.A. Chargers last Sunday.
The narrative isn’t great for Cousins (with speculation he suffered a mild concussion in the 3Q on Sunday), with pressure mounting on the team to give rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. some love after three straight losses. That has this spread as high as Falcons +5 in Week 14.
The Minnesota Vikings' 10-2 record also puffs up this number, but the Vikings are lucky to have won in each of the last two weeks. They crumbled in the fourth quarter and needed OT to avoid an upset against Chicago, and they were outplayed by Arizona this past weekend, somehow prevailing thanks to the Cardinals going 1-for-6 in the red zone.
This once-mighty defense has fallen from No. 1 in EPA allowed per play in the opening five weeks to No. 9 since Week 6 and down to No. 11 since Week 11. If we isolate the last two games, that metric falls further to No. 20.
The pass defense has been the notable dropoff, and while Minnesota has been able to contain the likes of Joe Flacco, Mac Jones, and Will Levis in recent games, it gave up 340 yards to Caleb Williams and 260 yards versus Kyler Murray.
Cousins is very familiar with Brian Flores’ schemes, having practiced against his defense all of last year. Minnesota’s blitz-heavy approach won’t shake the veteran QB either, as Cousins rates out well against extra rushers.
The Vikings also run one of the highest usages of zone coverage (second most) and Cousins is a much better passer versus zone schemes. He owns a 70.9% completion rate against zone coverage compared to 52.6% versus man-to-man, with a passer rating of 105.0 against zone defense.
Both the Falcons and Vikings have a bad habit of keeping things close. Despite Cousins’ four INTs, Atlanta only lost by four to the Chargers in Week 13 and has had nine games decided by one possession (eight points or less), including four or fewer. Meanwhile, Minnesota has had eight one-possession finishes, including in four of their last five victories.
I'm calling for another tight finish and for the Falcons to stay within the +5.
Not intended for use in MA.
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