Alabama vs North Carolina Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s College Basketball Game

Defense has been optional for both Alabama and North Carolina this year, making for a matchup with a sky-high total. Grant Nelson is among the players who should boost their season scoring averages tonight.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya ? Betting Analyst
Dec 4, 2024 ? 10:05 ET ? 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

Latest NCAAB Picks
Alabama Crimson Tide NCAAM Grant Nelson
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Grant Nelson.

The Alabama Crimson Tide face off against the North Carolina Tar Heels in the SEC/ACC Challenge on Wednesday night.

The total for this game is sitting at a whopping 175, which is why my Alabama vs. North Carolina predictions are betting on plenty of points from Crimson Tide forward Grant Nelson. Here are my best free college basketball picks for this marquee matchup on December 4.

Alabama vs North Carolina prediction

My best bet
Grant Nelson Over 14.5 points (-110 at bet365)

My analysis

Both schools rank in the Top 6 in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom and are in the Top 10 for adjusted tempo. They've also struggled on defense with the Alabama Crimson Tide surrendering 85.4 points per game in their previous five contests and the North Carolina Tar Heels allowing 89.7 ppg in their last three. 

All signs point to a shootout here, but with how sky-high this total is, I'm wary of betting the Over. Instead, I'll pull the trigger on a player prop that I really like; the Over 14.5 points for Alabama big man Grant Nelson. 

These teams faced off in the Sweet 16 last season with the Tide winning in an 89-87 thriller. Nelson was the best player on the floor in that contest, scoring 24 points with 12 boards and five blocks in 36 minutes.

This year, the Tar Heels have the same backcourt that they did in March, but they're significantly weaker in the front court after saying goodbye to Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram. Jae'Lyn Withers and Jalen Washington have been anchoring the middle for UNC but neither is a particularly good post-up defender or rim protector. 

Nelson is coming off a quiet seven-point performance against Oregon but the 6-foot-11 forward dropped 17 points in his previous game and scored more than 20 points in two other contests this season.

Alabama vs North Carolina same-game parlay

Grant Nelson Over 14.5 points

Mark Sears Over 2.5 made threes

Elliot Cadeau 5+ assists

Mark Sears leads Bama with 16.0 ppg but is shooting just 35% from the field and 29% from the arc. Considering that the senior guard averaged 21.5 ppg on 51/44/86 shooting splits last season, expect positive regression. Especially his shooting from deep against a Tar Heels squad that allows high-quality threes at one of the worst rates in the country per ShotQualityBets. 

Since the Tide will also likely give up plenty of points, UNC point guard Elliot Cadeau should rack up plenty of assists. The sophomore point guard is averaging 5.9 assists per game and should thrive against an Alabama backcourt that doesn't apply much pressure.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout

Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!

Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Alabama vs North Carolina odds

Alabama vs North Carolina live odds

Alabama vs North Carolina opening odds

  • Spread: Alabama +2 | North Carolina -2
  • Moneyline: Alabama +110 | North Carolina -130
  • Over/Under: Over 176.5 | Under 176.5

Odds courtesy of bet365

Alabama vs North Carolina betting trend to know

Alabama has hit the first half Over in 12 of their last 15 away games (+8.70 Units / 51% ROI) while the Tar Heels have cashed the first half Over in 17 of their previous 21 games at home (+12.50 Units / 52% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. North Carolina.

How to watch Alabama vs North Carolina

Location: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
Date: Wednesday, 12-4-2024
Tip-off: 7:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Alabama vs North Carolina key injuries

Not intended for use in MA.
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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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