I'm not sure back-to-back National Champions can have a must-win game in December, but winning would help flip some current narratives for Connecticut when it welcomes Baylor to Storrs tonight.
My Baylor vs. UConn predictions and college basketball picks for Wednesday, December 4 believe Samson Johnson will play a big part in helping the Huskies get back on the beam.
Baylor vs UConn prediction
My best bet
Samson Johnson Over 6.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Baylor Bears defense could be better as it ranks 79th nationally on KenPom, which seems generous to the eye. For the Bears, it's the same song and dance about how the team defends (or doesn't) at the rim.
Last year, Baylor finished last in the entire sport in opposing field goal percentage at the rim. It could be trending in the same direction this season as it ranks 284th nationally, allowing 65% shooting at the rim.
With that in mind, I'm grabbing the best rim runner on the UConn Huskies to go over a modest point total of 6.5 in Samson Johnson. That's a feat he's now accomplished in three straight games, and there's plenty of reason to suggest he makes it four.
One of Baylor's worst aspects this season has been defending slips and bigs rolling to the basket off a pick-and-roll. They've allowed 1.13 points off such sets, which ranks in the Bottom 18% of college basketball.
Its opponents have taken advantage of it as well. Igor Millcic from Tennessee scored 10 points against Baylor on similar sets. Zuby Ejiofor from St. John's did the same.
Big cuts and rolls have been a significant part of the Huskies' offense for over three years. Its volume with these sets has only increased with Alex Karaban getting injured, and he will remain sidelined tonight.
I expect the Huskies to run at least five or six sets exclusively for Johnson rim running. That alone could be enough to cash this, but we get a nice boost with his work on the offensive glass, creating second-chance opportunities and scores.
Baylor vs UConn same-game parlay
Samson Johnson Over 6.5 points
Liam McNeeley Over 2.5 assists
We have two data points without the offensive do-it-all man Karaban being involved in the lineup. In one of those, McNeeley had five assists. In the other, he had zero in a game where Dan Hurley tinkered and UConn won by 50+ points.
Tonight, you'll see McNeeley's assists benefit from the attention he draws. Even though he's not precisely shown it, McNeeley is Uconn's most healthy, capable shooter. That added attention should open up passing lanes for him.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Baylor vs UConn odds
Baylor vs UConn live odds
Baylor vs UConn opening odds
- Spread: Baylor +4.5 | UConn -4.5
- Moneyline: Baylor +165 | UConn -200
- Over/Under: Over 145 | Under 145
Odds courtesy of bet365
Baylor vs UConn betting trend to know
Connecticut has hit the 1H Moneyline in 31 of their last 37 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. UConn.
How to watch Baylor vs UConn
| Location: | Gampel Pavilion, Storrs, CT |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-4-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Baylor vs UConn key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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