A pair of excellent defensive teams hit the ice at Crypto.com Arena, with the Dallas Stars visiting the Los Angeles Kings on Wednesday, December 4.
Dallas and Los Angeles have both been Under teams all season, and our top Stars vs. Kings predictions expect the two clubs to go Under the number again tonight.
Let's dig into the matchup with our NHL picks ahead of tonight's 10 p.m. ET puck drop live on TNT.
Stars vs Kings prediction
My best bet
Under 6 (-118 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
The Dallas Stars and Los Angeles Kings are two of the best defensive teams in the league. Both clubs have played to the Under this season with respective 9-12-3 and 9-13-3 O/U records while allowing the fourth and fifth-fewest goals per game.
The Under has hit in eight of the past 10 meetings between these teams dating back to January 2020.
The 5-on-5 numbers for Dallas and Los Angeles also reinforce the commitment to strong team defense.
| 5-on-5 | Stars | Kings |
|---|---|---|
| Corsi For percentage | 52.8% (seventh) | 53.6% (fifth) |
| Goals against per 60 | 2.1 (eighth) | 1.98 (fourth) |
| Expected goals against per 60 | 2.48 (18th) | 2.02 (first) |
| Team save percentage | .922 (11th) | .915 (13th) |
I also value Dallas' fifth-ranked 82.6 penalty-kill percentage, while Los Angeles likely has statistical correction ahead of its 16th-ranked 80% mark after posting a second-ranked 84.6 PK% last year.
Of course, the Stars will also have No. 1 Jake Oettinger back between the pipes. He's been in top form all season with a .915 save percentage and 2.38 GAA, ranking seventh and fifth, respectively, among goalies with at least 10 appearances.
Finally, the Kings sport an 8-2-1 home record while allowing just 2.0 goals per game, and the Stars offense dips from 3.67 goals per game at home to 3.08 on the highway.
Stars vs Kings same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 5.5
Wyatt Johnston Under 0.5 points
Kevin Fiala Under 0.5 points
Stars winger Wyatt Johnston is a game removed from piling up two goals and five assists across a six-game point streak, but he’s otherwise been quiet this season. Johnston’s 1.87 points per 60 minutes are well below last year’s 2.8 mark, and while he’s likely set for positive regression over the long haul, this is a tough matchup.
It’s been an up-and-down season for Los Angeles forward Kevin Fiala.
He was a healthy scratch earlier in the year, and before recording a goal and an assist against the Ottawa Senators last time out, Fiala collected just a single goal and assist across his prior 10 contests. Additionally, nine of his 16 points have come with the man advantage, and Dallas has been one of the best penalty-kill teams in the league.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Stars vs Kings odds
Stars vs Kings live odds
Stars vs Kings opening odds
- Puck line: Dallas -1.5 (+211) | Los Angeles +1.5 (-252)
- Moneyline: Dallas -120 | Los Angeles +107
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-118) | Under 5.5 (+103)
Stars vs Kings trend
The Los Angeles Kings have hit the game total Under in 51 of their last 92 games (+13.55 Units / 13% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Kings.
How to watch Stars vs Kings
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-4-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Stars vs Kings latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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