It’s a small slate tonight and for once, I’m not loving the Over stacks. It could be an Under day and there is value on some team totals in a couple of spots.
The Predators are running into the best home team of late and the Blackhawks have the toughest scoring match-up on paper, but the Golden Knights should have more offensive opportunities than last night.
These are my three favorite NHL player props for Wednesday, December 4.
NHL prop picks and best bets for December 4
Blackhawks TT u2.5 (-115 at bet365)
Marchessault + Stamkos u0.5 points each (+225 at bet365)
Dorofeyev o0.5 points + o2.5 SOG (+160 at bet365)
Picks made on 12-4 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Blackhawks team total Under 2.5
I understand the Boston Bruins are on the second game of a back-to-back, but this is still a good spot to fade a Chicago Blackhawks offense that has to face Jeremy Swayman as Joonas Korpisalo was the Boston starter last night in the 3-2 OT win.
The Bruins are 5-2 since changing coaches, and the club has allowed just 13 goals under new bench boss Joe Sacco. They are also allowing just 24.3 shots per game. This is a matchup of the league’s worst expected goals for/60 at all strengths (Chicago) vs. Boston’s league-leading metric in expected goals allowed/60.
The Bruins' penalty kill will also play a big role in smothering an already bad Chicago offense. Under Sacco, the club has killed 17 of 18 penalties.
With Bedard still struggling and not shooting much — Under 2.5 SOG in nine of his last 11 games — this is a roster devoid of talent and one that is not getting to three goals tonight at home. The Hawks are 3-7 O/U on this team total across their last 10 games.
Prop bet #2: Jonathan Marchessault + Steven Stamkos Under 0.5 points each
The Nashville Predators have struggled to score all year and just over the last 14 games, this offense has been held to two or fewer goals a whopping 11 times. Now they run into the Toronto Maple Leafs, who sport a 1.38 home GAA since Halloween while giving up just five even-strength goals over that eight-game stretch (7-1 SU).
I love the Nashville team total Under 2.5 for -120, but the Under stack of Jonathan Marchessault and Steven Stamkos at +225 is a better route for a bigger haul.
It’s incredible how unproductive the newest members of the team have been. Marchessault has pointed in just three of his last 14 games while Stamkos has been little better over that time, getting a point in 50% of those games. This Under stack has cashed in six of those games for a 5.5-unit profit at 39% ROI.
The Leafs have given up just 11 goals at home over the aforementioned 7-1 SU stretch. This Nashville offense is going to struggle tonight. The Under stack of Forsberg/O’Reilly/Nyquist is also tempting at +450.
Prop bet #3: Pavel Dorofeyev Over 0.5 points + Over 2.5 SOG
Pavel Dorofeyev is playing on the top line and getting PP1 minutes with the Vegas Golden Knights, who should see a lot more offense tonight vs. the Anaheim Ducks after a 1-0 win over the Oilers last night.
There were zero PP opportunities in last night’s Oilers vs. Golden Knights game but Vegas was also coming off its worst home loss ever in a 6-0 defeat to Utah the game before that. Tonight should be a lot more loose, which should help vs. the Ducks. Anaheim allows the most shots and worst expected goals against/60 at all strengths, per Natural Stat Trick.
The Knights are being slightly discounted because of the back-to-back but it’s the highest total on the board tonight at 6 and the Ducks have actually been winning games of late, so two-way scoring could provide more needed offense from the visitors.
Dorofeyev has gone Over his shot total in six straight games and 14 of his last 18 games. Adding his Over 2.5 SOG in the best shooting matchup in hockey is a great idea to move his o0.5 points to +160 — the same price for his 4+ SOG market.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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