The Vegas Golden Knights have already topped the Anaheim Ducks in consecutive meetings this season, and the two Pacific Division clubs hit the ice at the Honda Center for their third matchup of the year on Wednesday, December 4.
My Golden Knights vs. Ducks predictions expect goals to be few and far between in another low-scoring affair tonight.
I examine their defenses and lack of scoring prowess in my NHL picks ahead of puck drop at 10 p.m. ET.
Golden Knights vs Ducks prediction
My best bet
Under 6.5 (-115 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
While the Anaheim Ducks are rolling along on a solid 5-2-1 stretch, their 5-on-5 play remains a disaster with a 27th-ranked 46.5 Corsi For percentage and 45.7 expected goals percentage. The Ducks have benefited from an unsustainably high 11.48 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5, which is nearly twice as high as their 6.25 mark to start the year.
Anaheim won't continue scoring at such an efficient clip.
On the flip side, the Vegas Golden Knights are coming off a 1-0 win over the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday and hit the highway for their second game in consecutive nights.
It’s the perfect setup for Vegas to revert back into a defensive shell to play a low-event style, and the Golden Knights have already won the first two games of the season series against the Ducks with 3-1 and 3-2 wins.
Both games went Under the 6.5 total and, for what it’s worth, the division foes have played to the Under in seven of their past meetings.
The Vegas offense hasn’t been as potent at 5-on-5 on the road, either.
| Golden Knights 5-on-5 | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| Goals per game | 3.0 (first) | 2.01 (12th) |
| Goals per 60 | 3.51 (third) | 2.43 (19th) |
| Expected goals per 60 | 2.57 (14t) | 2.31 (20th) |
Of course, Vegas cashing in on an unsustainable third-ranked 10.39 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 has been part and parcel of their success all season, and I also expect the Golden Knights to have difficulty maintaining that mark.
Golden Knights vs Ducks same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 6.5
Olen Zellweger Over 1.5 shots
Shea Theodore Over 2.5 shots
Anaheim defenseman Olen Zellweger has recorded two or more shots in 12 of 13 games since the calendar flipped to November while logging an average of 20:01 of ice time with 3:21 quarterbacking the No. 1 power-play unit.
Zellweger has also driven 5-on-5 possession during the 13-game stretch with a 52.1 Corsi For percentage while also taking 67.2% of his faceoffs in the offensive zone.
Sticking on the blue line, Vegas defenseman Shea Theodore has registered just seven shots despite 28 attempts in the past five games. Converting just 25% of his attempts into shots isn’t sustainable, especially considering he recorded 39 shots on 93 attempts (41.9%) through the first 18 games of the year.
This is also a great matchup for statistical correction to kick in because Anaheim has allowed the fourth-most shots to opposing defensemen (9.32) per game and the most overall per game (33.3).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Golden Knights vs Ducks odds
Golden Knights vs Ducks live odds
Golden Knights vs Ducks opening odds
- Puck line: Vegas -1.5 (+150) | Anaheim +1.5 (-180)
- Moneyline: Vegas -170 | Anaheim +145
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-120) | Under 6 (+100)
Golden Knights vs Ducks trend
The Knights and Ducks have played to the Under in seven of their past nine games. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Ducks.
How to watch Golden Knights vs Ducks
| Location: | Honda Center, Anaheim, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-4-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Victory+, Fox 11 Plus |
Golden Knights vs Ducks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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