Both the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers are fresh off of blowout losses, and each will look to get back in the win column in tonight’s primetime showdown from South Beach.
My Lakers vs. Heat predictions expect Bam Adebayo to get teammates involved, LeBron James to get back on track, and the final score to fall short of its modest point total.
Find out more in my NBA picks for Wednesday, December 4.
Lakers vs Heat prediction
My best bet
Bam Adebayo Over 4.5 assists (-140 at bet365)
My analysis
Bam Adebayo has been excellent as a facilitator this season. The Miami Heat center is handing out 4.9 assists per game, which is his highest mark since the 2020-21 campaign.
Adebayo has dished at least four dimes in six straight games, averaging 7.0 assists along the way. In that six-game span, only Nikola Jokic has handed out more assists (8.2) among centers. On the season as a whole, Adebayo ranks fourth among centers in assists per game and assist percentage (21.7).
Since 2019-20, only Jokic and Domantas Sabonis have averaged more assists per game among centers than Adebayo, and those three are the only centers to average at least four assists in that span. Facilitating at a high level is nothing new to Adebayo.
The Los Angeles Lakers have allowed the seventh-most assists per game this season, making this prop a little bit sweeter. Adebayo averaged 5.4 assists per game in his last six meetings with the Lakers and hit the Over three times.
At -140, a $100 bet will net you $71.43 in profit, so this one isn’t off-limits as a straight wager. It’s a bit more palatable when added in with the other two legs of our three-leg parlay.
Lakers vs Heat same-game parlay
Bam Adebayo Over 4.5 assists
LeBron James Over 1.5 threes
Under 216
Over his last four games, LeBron James has gone 0-of-19 from beyond the arc, but I’m expecting a bounce-back tonight.
All eyes are on King James as he faces his former team for the 10th time since departing South Beach for Los Angeles. In nine prior matchups since the 2018-19 season, James has averaged 2.4 triples, including 2.6 at Miami. The Heat have allowed the seventh-most three-pointers to opponents this season, and James should take advantage of this favorable matchup.
What better place to get back on track? James understands the gravity of the moment with so much negative attention on his recent play.
The last four head-to-head matchups all went Under, and the Heat rank 10th in fewest points per game scored, including sixth-fewest at home. Meanwhile, the Lakers have scored the eighth-fewest points per game on the road, and the team has averaged a paltry 92.7 points across its last three games.
Though I’m expecting James to break out of his scoring slump, I can’t pick the Over in a game that’s set up so perfectly to hit the Under.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Lakers vs Heat odds
Lakers vs Heat live odds
Lakers vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +2 | Miami -2
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +115 | Miami -135
- Over/Under: Over 216 | Under 216
Odds courtesy of bet365
Lakers vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- Los Angeles has covered only once across its last nine games, and the team is 8-13 ATS this season.
- Miami has covered in four of its last nine, bringing the Heat’s ATS record to 8-11.
- The Lakers have hit the Under in six straight and in 12 of 21 games in 2024-25.
- The Heat have gone Over in five of their last nine, and the team is 10-9 to the Over this year.
Lakers vs Heat trend
Miami has won seven of the last 10 head-to-head matchups against Los Angeles, including two straight and four of the last five. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Heat.
How to watch Lakers vs Heat
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-4-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Spectrum SportsNet, FanDuel Sports Network - Sun |
Lakers vs Heat latest injuries
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