NFL Picks

Injuries are piling up for the Lions who are now missing their best edge rusher, best linebacker, top corner, and a starting defensive tackle. They also lost RB David Montgomery who has helped give Detroit's offense much-needed balance. These division rivalries are often tougher than expected and Lions QB Jared Goff has a history of underperforming in cold weather. Meanwhile, Bears QB Caleb Williams has been inconsistent but has played significantly better at home where he has a passer rating of 97.5.

Barkley has eclipsed 100 yards in nine of 14 starts this season, including tallying 146 yards on 26 carries in the first meeting against the Washington Commanders. Although he had a bit of a down game last week with just 65 yards on 19 carries, he was facing an elite Pittsburgh Steelers stop unit. Meanwhile, Washington has already allowed 96+ yards to James Conner, Derrick Henry, D’Andre Swift, and Barkley in 2024. Bank on Saquon to flex his muscles early and often in this NFC East clash. 

While the Jets are allowing just 5.2 yards per play, an elite number in the NFL, they are allowing a relatively poor 23.2 ppg, seemingly finding the worst times to allow big plays and long drives. The Rams and quarterback Matthew Stafford will be ready to take advantage of those opportunities. A dreary outing in a 12-6 win over the 49ers has depressed L.A.’s offensive numbers, but that came on the heels of a 44-point outburst against Buffalo. In the four games before that trip to San Fran, Stafford threw for 10 touchdowns and no interceptions, and is likely to add to those numbers on what looks like a good weather day in New Jersey on Sunday. The Jets have hit the Over in four straight games as they trend towards higher-scoring football, and the Rams also went Over the total in three of four before last Thursday’s debacle. Both the matchup and the trends are pointing clearing in the same direction, which is why I’m taking the Over in this game.

The Tennessee Titans only put up 10, 14, and 20 points in Rudolph’s three starts this season. Also, there is a possibility that the Titans could be without Tony Pollard, who left last week early with an ankle injury. He missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday and is listed as questionable. If the Titans are down Pollard, I just cannot see them putting up any sort of offense in this contest. Meanwhile, Anthony Richardson should be able to find plenty of running room against a Titans defense that struggles with scrambling quarterbacks. The Titans have allowed the sixth most scramble yards to quarterbacks in the NFL this season. 

Cleveland ranks 31st in DVOA and EPA per play, and while the Brownies have teeth on defense, there hasn’t been a stop unit to truly cool the Bengals this season. Cincy is fifth in points per game (28.5), EPA per play and eighth in yards per play (5.8). The Bengals also sport a middling 17th rank in DVOA. Defense has been a clear weakness for Cincinnati, but I’m not anticipating the Dorian Thompson-Robinson led Browns to fully capitalize on Sunday. This is a lost season for Cleveland, and the Browns have a dreadful 4-10 record against the spread and have covered the number just a single time through their past six games. The Browns also have just a single win on the highway all season, and that was all the way back in Week 2 against the equally flawed Jacksonville Jaguars.

James Conner remains as dependable as ever in the backfield, and the Arizona Cardinals veteran is set to thrive in an even bigger role on Sunday. Backup RB Trey Benson is currently banged up with an ankle and third-stringer Emari Demecado has been placed on IR. Benson saw a 13% snap share last week and 33% in Week 14. Conner has cleared this prop in back-to-back games, tallying 20+ touches in each contest. He also leads the league in missed tackles and ranks second in rushes of 10+ yards (31), trailing only Saquon Barkley. Facing a Carolina Panthers defense that allows a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry, Conner should easily surpass this O/U.

Robinson is one of the premier receiving backs in the NFL, and he ranks third in receptions (54) and receiving yards (411) among backs. The New York Giants has been surprisingly competent against the pass, but I expect Penix to check the ball down to his star back to get some easy completions. Over his last eight games, Robinson has averaged 19.4 carries for 90.3 rushing yards and 4.1 receptions for 31.3 receiving yards. He eclipsed 125 rushing + receiving yards in five of those eight, including two of his last three. The Giants have been gashed by the run this season, surrendering the second-most rushing yards to opponents at 143.7. New York surrendered 170 rushing yards in its last game out, and Atlanta will look to exploit this favorable matchup, control the clock, and take the pressure off of Penix.

While we have reason to believe the Carolina Panthers can win outright on Sunday, the points are the better value here as the defense hasn't been as quietly impressive as the offense. But they at least get a friendlier matchup against an Arizona Cardinals offense that had managed just 46 combined points in the three weeks prior to last week's 30-point performance against the bottom-of-the-barrel Patriots. And it's not as if the Cardinals have been impressive on defense this year either, as they have ranked 15th in both pass and run defense DVOA this year and are 20th in takeaways. And Kyler Murray has seemingly become gun shy when it comes to using his legs, as he has had just one game above 21 rushing yards in the last seven.

The Giants are last in the NFL in scoring with 14.9 ppg and currently have Drew Lock under center after dumping Daniel Jones and benching Tommy DeVito. Lock completed just 21-of-49 passes for 227 yards last week in a 14-11 loss to the Saints. The only thing this Giants offense has going for it is rookie WR Malik Nabers but Atlanta has a top CB in A.J. Terrell who can slow him down. Meanwhile, Atlanta has benched Kirk Cousins for Michael Penix who will make his first career start. There will be growing pains for the rookie QB, especially since he's one of the few left-handed passers in the NFL and has been practicing with second-string players. Adjusting to a southpaw QB in the middle of the season won't be easy for his receivers. As bad as these defenses have been, the offenses won't do enough to drag this game Over the total. 

The Philadelphia Eagles completely locked down Terry McLaurin in their previous meeting, with rookie corner Quinyon Mitchell limiting the Washington Commanders receiver to just one catch for 10 yards. Vic Fangio's defense has been exceptional, allowing a league-best 173.4 passing yards per game and surrendering the third-fewest receiving yards to receivers lined up out wide. With McLaurin virtually a non-factor on the field, Jayden Daniels looked completely lost in that Week 11 loss to Philly, throwing for only 191 yards and targeting his No. 1 WR just twice. A similar game plan from Fangio should be in the works, forcing Daniels to rely on secondary options. Noah Brown and Zach Ertz will likely see increased targets as the Eagles focus on neutralizing 'Scary Terry'.

With David Mongtomery sidelined for the rest of the season, the Lions will need to find a new go-to man inside the red zone. While all eyes will be on Amon-Ra St. Brown, second-year tight end Sam LaPorta is my answer for a big day against the Chicago Bears. Although LaPorta has endured somewhat of a sophomore slump, he was targeted a season-high 10 times in last week's loss to Buffalo, racking up 111 receiving yards on seven receptions. Detroit will look to take out its frustration on a Chicago defense that has been generous to the position, ranking 30th in receiving yards to opposing TEs. Look for Jared Goff to look LaPorta's way early and often inside the 20s.

Any concern about A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts' so-called "rift" was put to bad last week as the All-Pro wideout was targeted 11 times and caught eight passes for 110 yards and a touchdown in a convincing 27-13 win over Pittsburgh. More of a track meet will be expected on Sunday when the Eagles take on the Washington Commanders, who love to play aggressively and push the ball downfield with Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin. Brown will be a good counter to the Commanders' offense, as the three-time Pro Bowler specializes in exploiting blitz packages, targeted at a Top-15 rate when defenses bring the heat. Facing a Washington defense that ranks 23rd in coverage grade at PFF, I'm backing Brown to have a field day in Landover. 

OC Zac Robinson should keep the game plan simple for Michael Penix Jr. in his NFL debut, featuring a run-heavy approach for Bijan Robinson. The star running back is fresh off his best outing of the season, carrying the ball 22 times for 125 yards against Las Vegas. The former first-round pick is set for arguably an even bigger day in Week 16 as he's set to face Giants defense surrendering 4.9 yards per carry, trailing only Carolina for the league-worst mark. At an O/U of 91.5, I'd consider laddering Robinson to 100+ and 125+ in rushing milestones. The Falcons should lead early and have the game script in their favor against a New York side that has lost nine in a row. 

That leads to a coin toss between Chase Brown and Ja’Marr Chase, but it’s the wideout who seems most likely. He is averaging over one touchdown per game this season, is tied for the league's most touchdowns with 15, and has scored eight times in the past five weeks. Not only that but he scored when these teams met in Week Seven. Chase is on a heater right now, and the Bengals are playing great football. There’s a very high chance he scores first.

The Atlanta Falcons are one of the bigger favorites this Sunday, coming in as 8.5-point favorites despite giving a first start to Michael Penix Jr at QB. The untested rookie quarterback has a lot to prove, but it’s too early to start projecting massive upticks to the likes of Drake London. When it comes to this offense, we know Bijan Robinson is the star. The former Texas man is having a strong season with nine touchdowns on the year, including four in the past five games, a spell that’s seen him with 20+ carries on four occasions and over 100 scrimmage yards on four occasions, too. He’s most likely to open the scoring in this one.

The Giants could be left with Tim Boyle under center as their clown car of QBs continues to skid out of control. And speaking of clown QBs, it looks like the Falcons don’t trust Kirk Cousins to throw the ball anymore. He passed just 17 times against Vegas on Monday, completing 11 of those attempts for 112 yards. Any gains made by these offenses will be short passes and handoffs, which keep the clock ticking. 

Seahawks QB Geno Smith limps into Week 16 after a scary knee injury that many thought would end his 2024. However, Smith is back at practice and prepping for this aggressive pass rush. His lack of mobility will be exploited by the Vikings and Smith sees his passing metrics slide when under pressure, with a completion rate short of 57% and 11 of his total 13 interceptions coming while feeling the heat. Not helping things is a rash of ailments to the guys around Geno. Running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet are questionable, top WR D.K. Metcalf is fighting through a shoulder injury, and safety blanket TE Noah Fant is limited by a knee injury. Seattle will lean into Mike Macdonald’s defense to keep it close on Sunday. The Seahawks struggled to grasp their new coach’s concepts early into the schedule but have been among the strongest stop units in the NFL since Week 9.

The San Francisco 49ers have struggled to stop the run this season and sit just 28th in EPA per rush on defense. In the 49ers’ last four games, they’ve allowed three 100-yard rushers. That makes this the perfect matchup for Achane to remind the country why he’s considered one of the best young playmakers in the game. The second-year back out of Texas A&M has gone for 52-plus rushing yards five times this season. Achane has 452 rushing yards after contact this year with 25 forced missed tackles and 16 runs of 10-plus-yard runs, per PFF, proving he’s capable of creating on his own. And with the 49ers’ 123 missed tackles this season, he should be able to take advantage of a defense with more than a half dozen players that have a missed tackle rate of over 10%.

The 49ers are coming off a 12-6 loss to the Rams and have scored 10 points or less in three of their last four games. Brock Purdy has been held below 160 passing yards in three of those contests and fourth-string RB Patrick Taylor Jr. is in line to start after a rash of injuries in the backfield. They won't find it east to score against the Miami Dolphins who are 12th in the league in defensive EPA. While the Dolphins have played better than expected on D, they haven't been the offensive juggernaut they were supposed to be. Miami is 31st in the league in rush EPA and Tua Tagovailoa has been limited by a banged-up receiving corps. All-Pro wideout Tyreek Hill is questionable with a wrist injury while No. 2 WR Jaylen Waddle is doubtful. Miami's offense also plays at a slow tempo, ranking 28th in seconds per snap (28.5) while San Fran is dead-last with 29.4 seconds/snap. 

The 22-year-old has taken the NFL by storm, entering the weekend eighth in league receiving yards (968) and having been targeted 10+ times in three of his last five starts. Currently sitting third in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, Bowers has already eclipsed Sam LaPorta for the rookie record in tight end receptions, and he's only 108 yards shy of usurping Mike Ditka's mark for the most receiving yards by a TE in his rookie year. The Jacksonville Jaguars have also been torched by TEs this season, ranking dead-last in yards allowed to the position. History could be made on Sunday at Allegiant Stadium. 

Cooper is just a week removed from turning 14 targets into six catches for 95 yards, so I'm not overreacting to the zeros across his Week 15 box score. It's actually provided a great buy-low opportunity. This 34.5 receiving yards total is his lowest over the past two seasons, and he’s cleared the benchmark in 18 of 28 games dating back to the beginning of last year. It's a solid matchup against New England, too. The Pats have surrendered the second-highest EPA per dropback and fourth-highest dropback success rate while allowing a healthy 7.37 yards per target to opposing quarterbacks and 8.24 YPA to opposing wide receivers. Cooper cashes in on the bounce-back spot in Week 16.

This is a low total for Bourne. The Pats are a massive underdog, and the Bills haven’t been particularly stingy against the pass. Buffalo has surrendered the second-highest catch percentage to opposing wide receivers for a healthy 8.27 yards per target, and Bourne has 30 or more receiving yards in each of his past five games for an average of 44.8 per while hauling in 18 of 22 targets. 

Whether the team has lost faith in James Cook or whether they’re pushing for Allen to win MVP, it’s their QB who is rushing in touchdowns right now. He seems to be developing a yearly habit of rushing more down the stretch when every game gets more crucial, and that’s true again this year. Allen has had double-digit carries in three of the past four weeks, but what really stands out is the scoring. He’s found the endzone for five straight weeks and has scored five rushing touchdowns in the past fortnight.

The Dolphins defense is dreadful and has been especially soft over the last three showings. Miami has given up an average of 5.8 yards per play and ranks 26^th in EPA allowed per snap since Week 13. What’s more, Miami doesn’t bring much pressure and mixes zone and man coverage in the secondary. It’s notably vulnerable in zone schemes, ranking 30^th in team coverage rate at PFF. Purdy is one of the best QBs in the league versus zone defense, owning the No. 1 passer rating against those schemes. As for the San Francisco stop unit, it got key bodies back last week and should be even stronger in Week 16. Dre Greenlaw made his return last Thursday and DE Joey Bosa was back as well.

With O’Connell under center, Turner’s aggressive playcalling has proved potent and should have little trouble testing the Jags porous pass defense. Jacksonville has allowed the most “home run” plays on the season, with 63 completions of 20 or more yards allowed – 13 for 40-plus. It sits dead last in EPA allowed per dropback by a large margin. The Raiders defense isn’t much better, but the blitz-happy pass rush has been on one in recent weeks. Las Vegas has collected 12 sacks over the past three games after totaling only 17 in the opening 11 contests of 2024. It actually boasts the No. 4 pass rush win rate at ESPN. Jacksonville has backup Mac Jones at quarterback. He rates among the worst QBs in the league against the blitz (47^th to be exact) as well as under pressure, according to PFF, and his two turnovers cost the Jags a win over the Jets in Week 15.

With so many other stars on this offense, Buccaneers WR Jalen McMillan is being overlooked. But the third-round pick is running the furthest routes of all Tampa receivers and has cemented himself as the No. 2 receiver in this offense. He has 134 yards and three TDs over his last two games and has set season/career-highs in yardage in consecutive weeks. There might be even more room for targets this week as the Bucs have some injuries. Otton was a DNP at practice on Thursday, and he had 17 targets over the last four games. Trey Palmer was also a DNP this week with an illness, and Sterling Shepard is nursing a foot injury. Fellow rookie Bucky Irving has also been limited this week. There could potentially be an extra 10 targets available Sunday when you add in the increased pass rate that an indoor game also brings.

It took some time before the rookie wideout was able to adjust to the pro game and build rapport with Baker Mayfield, but he seems to have turned the corner. McMillan hauled in four of seven targets for 59 yards in Week 14 before racking up 75 yards on five catches last week. Dallas is 27th in the league in receiving yards allowed per game (157.4) to wide receivers. The Cowboys have a high-caliber cornerback in DaRon Bland but will likely use him to cover Pro Bowl wideout Mike Evans. Depth at CB is a big problem for Dallas since Trevon Diggs recently joined Caelen Carson and Josh Butler on the IR. That means a favorable matchup for McMillan, who should continue to see plenty of targets with tight end Cade Otton doubtful with a knee injury.

Lamb is starting to build chemistry with Cooper Rush and had six catches for 93 yards in Week 14 before snagging nine of 13 targets for 116 yards last week. The All-Pro WR will be able to gain separation against a Bucs team that is 30th in the league in dropback success rate. Especially with Pro Bowl safety Antoine Winfield Jr. sidelined. The Bucs were routinely getting burned by No. 1 WRs earlier in the season and have been fortunate not to face any top wideouts since the start of November. The best wide receivers they've seen since then have been DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, Jauan Jennings, and Malik Nabers, and three of those wideouts had more than 80 yards.

Mayfield has thrown for multiple touchdown passes in nine of his 14 games this season. Two of those one-TD games came in Weeks 2 and 3, while the other three outliers are now a few weeks away. The veteran quarterback is fresh off a four-touchdown game in which he racked up 288 passing yards in Los Angeles. In fact, he’s now thrown for seven touchdowns and nearly 600 yards in the last two weeks.The Dallas Cowboys have been able to hold guys like Bryce Young and Drew Lock to Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns in recent weeks while allowing Derek Carr, Justin Fields, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, and Joe Burrow all to find the end zone multiple times.

Dowdle has rumbled for more than 110 yards in three-straight games. That said, those contests came against Giants, Bengals, and Panthers. The Panthers are last in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (173) and the Giants are second-last (143.7), while the Bengals are 30th in defensive rush EPA. It will be a big step up to go from those run defenses to a Tampa Bay stop unit that ranks eighth in defensive rush EPA. The Bucs are allowing just 80.7 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs — the seventh-lowest number in the league. The Bucs also have an average scoring margin of +15.8 ppg in their eight wins so there's a chance they get up big early and force Dallas to abandon the run.

The Cowboys have scored 27+ points in three of their last four games with Cooper Rush at the helm. Granted, those games came against some terrible defenses but the Bucs aren't much better ranking 29th in the league in defensive success rate. Rico Dowdle has rushed for 119.5 yards per game over the last four weeks and CeeDee Lamb should torch a secondary that is 30th in defensive dropback success rate and will be missing star safety Antoine Winfield Jr.  But the main reason I like the Over in this game is because Tampa Bay should move the ball at will. The Bucs have averaged 30.8 ppg since Week 4 and their balanced offense is seventh in dropback EPA and sixth in rush EPA. The Cowboys are 26th in defensive EPA and 32nd in defensive rush EPA. They also recently lost LB DeMarvion Overshown and top CB Trevon Diggs to season-ending injuries.

Lamb has scored touchdowns in back-to-back games coming into Sunday night football and this showdown stinks like a shootout. Lamb’s 17 red zone targets are the eighth most among WRs but he doesn’t have to be inside the 20 to score. Tampa has allowed a ton of home run balls as well – that’s compounded by a slew of injuries at the safety position. 

Tampa Bay has trouble slowing down the passing game and has allowed 44 receptions of 20+ yards, including seven for 40+. Luckily, the Bucs can counter those shortcomings with yardage of their own. The Buccaneers have broken out for big scores during this winning streak, averaging 31 points per game. Tampa Bay has a downfield threat with Baker Mayfield and WR Mike Evans, which works well against the aggressive zone schemes of Cowboys coordinator Mike Zimmer but can really stick it to the Dallas defense with standout rookie RB Bucky Irving and shifty back Rashaad White. Dallas ranks as the worst run-stop unit in the NFL, sitting dead last in EPA allowed per handoff, 26th in opponent success rate per run, and 28th in yards allowed per carry.