Touchdown dances aren’t just reserved for the guys getting across the goal line.
Touchdown props allow NFL bettors to celebrate alongside their favorite players, which makes anytime touchdown and first touchdown odds among the most popular NFL player props bets every week.
If you think you know which players will strike pay dirt, you can bet on them to score a TD at any point in the game. And if you’re really locked in on who will get past the goal line first, you can pump up your payouts by betting the “first touchdown scorer” markets when you make your NFL picks.
Anytime touchdown prediction
Tim Patrick: Anytime TD (+325 at Caesars)
The Detroit Lions are a mess defensively and the loss of David Montgomery could increase this team’s pass rate. I know it’s a game vs. the Chicago Bears, who have done nothing offensively since moving Thomas Brown to HC, but Detroit is thin seemingly everywhere on defense and might have to let it fly to a win — even vs. a poorly run offense.
Tim Patrick is also coming off a Week 15 where he finished with a season-high in route and snap share. Twenty-six percent of his targets over the last two weeks have come in the red zone and three (20%) have come inside the 5-yard line.
-Josh Inglis
First touchdown prediction
Come back soon for our Week 16 first touchdown scorer predictions.
Multi touchdown prediction
Sam LaPorta: 2+ TDs (+1600 at DraftKings)
With David Mongtomery sidelined for the rest of the season, the Lions will need to find a new go-to man inside the red zone. While all eyes will be on Amon-Ra St. Brown, second-year tight end Sam LaPorta is my answer for a big day against the Chicago Bears.
Although LaPorta has endured somewhat of a sophomore slump, he was targeted a season-high 10 times in last week's loss to Buffalo, racking up 111 receiving yards on seven receptions. Detroit will look to take out its frustration on a Chicago defense that has been generous to the position, ranking 30th in receiving yards to opposing TEs.
Look for Jared Goff to look LaPorta's way early and often inside the 20s.
-Trevor Knapp
Ja’Marr Chase: 2+ TDs (+500 at FanDuel)
Ja’Marr Chase is pacing all receivers this year in receptions (102) and receiving yards (1,413) as well as touchdowns (15). He’s made multiple trips to the end zone in three of his last five games, yet he’s still being offered at solid odds to do it again vs. the Cleveland Browns this Sunday.
The Cincinnati Bengals star was somewhat subdued by Cleveland back in Week 7, going for one score with 55 yards on five grabs (six targets), but that game was a turning point in terms of his production this year. After averaging fewer than seven targets per game through the first seven weeks, Chase has averaged nearly 13 targets in seven games since.
Despite allowing the fifth-fewest targets to opposing wide-outs (240), the Browns have allowed the fifth-most TDs to the position (16).
-Robert Criscola
What is a first touchdown scorer bet?
A first touchdown scorer bet involves wagering on which player will score the first touchdown in a specific NFL game. This type of bet can be placed on any player who is eligible to score, and typically focuses on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, and quarterbacks.
If the player you choose scores the first touchdown, you win the bet; if not, you lose. The odds for these bets can vary based on the player’s likelihood to score first, which is influenced by factors like their position, recent performance, and the team's offensive strategy and efficiency.
What is an anytime touchdown scorer bet?
An anytime touchdown bet involves wagering on whether a specific player will score a touchdown at any point during the game, not just the first TD.
For example, if you bet on Ravens running back Derrick Henry to score an anytime touchdown and he finds the end zone at any time during the game, you win the bet. This type of bet is popular because it allows for more scoring opportunities, and you can often choose players based on advantageous matchups. The odds can vary based on the player’s scoring potential and the strength of the team’s offensive scheme.
How are touchdown prop odds determined in NFL betting?
Here are some of the key factors oddsmakers consider when setting touchdown prop odds:
- Player performance: Historical data on a player's scoring ability, including past touchdowns, carries, and target share, is crucial.
- Matchup analysis: The opposing defense's strengths and weaknesses are evaluated, including how well they defend against specific positions.
- Injury reports: Injuries to key players can impact a player's likelihood of scoring. Check out our NFL Injuries page to stay up to date before making your wager.
- Game script: Oddsmakers consider potential game scenarios, such as whether a team is expected to be ahead or behind and how that may impact their strategy.
- Public sentiment: Betting patterns and public perception can also sway odds. If a player is very popular or a big favorite, sportsbooks may adjust their odds to mitigate risk. You can check out our Covers NFL picks consensus to see how the public is leaning.
- Statistical models: Sportsbook use advanced analytics and data-driven models to help refine their lines.
NFL TD Prop Betting FAQ
Yes, both running touchdowns and receiving touchdowns count for both the first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown bets. So, if a running back scores a touchdown by running the ball or a wide receiver scores by catching a pass, it will count for your bet in either category. As long as the player you bet on is the one who scores, you win!
Yes, an interception return for a touchdown counts as a touchdown in anytime touchdown betting props. If you bet on a defensive player to score an anytime touchdown and they return an interception for a touchdown, your bet would win. This also applies to fumble recoveries returned for touchdowns. However, it's important to check the specific rules of the sportsbook, as they can vary.
On an average Sunday of NFL football, six to seven touchdowns are typically scored per game. Since there are usually 12 to 16 games played, that can add up to 70 to 100 total touchdowns across the league.
Yes, an NFL center can score a touchdown, though it's quite rare. Centers primarily focus on snapping the ball and blocking, but they can score through a fumble recovery, a passing play if they are deemed eligible before the play, and a fake play.
Yes, you can parlay touchdown props in NFL betting. A parlay involves combining multiple bets into one wager, and if all selections win, the payout can be much higher than placing each bet individually. For instance, you can parlay bets on multiple players to score touchdowns in the same game, but keep in mind that all bets in the parlay must win for you to receive a payout.
