It’s Week 16, and we’re reaching the business end of the season. We have a whole host of games this Sunday, and with playoff implications, there’s so much to play for.
We’ve studied the data to find the best First Touchdown Scorer picks on Sunday’s slate to get stuck into.
Here are my best three NFL First Touchdown Scorer picks.
Week 16 first touchdown scorer props
- Bijan Robinson First Touchdown (+310 at FanDuel)
- Ja’Marr Chase First Touchdown (+475 at BetMGM)
- Josh Allen First Touchdown (+550 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 16 first TD picks
First TD prop bet #1: Bijan Robinson
Best odds: +310 at FanDuel
The Atlanta Falcons are one of the bigger favorites this Sunday, coming in as 8.5-point favorites despite giving a first start to Michael Penix Jr at QB. The untested rookie quarterback has a lot to prove, but it’s too early to start projecting massive upticks to the likes of Drake London. When it comes to this offense, we know Bijan Robinson is the star.
The former Texas man is having a strong season with nine touchdowns on the year, including four in the past five games, a spell that’s seen him with 20+ carries on four occasions and over 100 scrimmage yards on four occasions, too. He’s most likely to open the scoring in this one.
First TD prop bet #2: Ja’Marr Chase
Best odds: +475 at BetMGM
The Cincinnati Bengals are another team that is heavily favored to win this Sunday as they continue their playoff hunt against a Browns team that will be starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. DTR hasn’t shown himself to be an NFL-level QB and with the Bengals running hot, we simply have to take one of their offensive stars to open the scoring.
That leads to a coin toss between Chase Brown and Ja’Marr Chase, but it’s the wideout who seems most likely. He is averaging over one touchdown per game this season, is tied for the league's most touchdowns with 15, and has scored eight times in the past five weeks. Not only that but he scored when these teams met in Week Seven. Chase is on a heater right now, and the Bengals are playing great football. There’s a very high chance he scores first.
First TD prop bet #3: Josh Allen
Best odds: +550 at FanDuel
The Buffalo Bills have been explosive on offense this year and are the biggest favorites on Sunday, with a towering 14-point spread against the Patriots. Over the past few weeks, there’s only one person we can realistically bet on scoring first, and that has to be the current MVP front-runner, Josh Allen.
Whether the team has lost faith in James Cook or whether they’re pushing for Allen to win MVP, it’s their QB who is rushing in touchdowns right now. He seems to be developing a yearly habit of rushing more down the stretch when every game gets more crucial, and that’s true again this year. Allen has had double-digit carries in three of the past four weeks, but what really stands out is the scoring. He’s found the endzone for five straight weeks and has scored five rushing touchdowns in the past fortnight.
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