NFL Week 16 Underdog Picks & Predictions: 49ers Shine in Miami

Mike McDaniel's second shot at toppling mentor Kyle Shanahan will not go his way, either, as the Dolphins will fall flat as home favorites against Brock Purdy and the 49ers.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan ? Senior Betting Analyst
Dec 22, 2024 ? 10:23 ET ? 4 min read
Deebo Samuel San Francisco 49ers NFL
Photo By - Imagn Images.

There's no place like home for the holidays... unless you're catching points.

Home underdogs used to have more bite in the world of NFL betting. But it seems that point-spread pop with host pups has gone the way of the $5 footlong and original movie ideas.

Home underdogs were a go-to angle when it came to many NFL picks and predictions, boasting a near 52% blind cover rate between 1985 and 2022, with home dogs cashing in almost 56% of the time in that final season.

However, with the erosion of home-field advantage (now worth less than 1.5 points to the spread), home teams getting the points have cost bettors dearly the past two years. Since 2023, home underdogs are covering at a 44% clip, including a 33-48-4 ATS record so far in 2024 (41%). They went 1-5-1 ATS in Week 15.

The NFL Week 16 odds board has eight home teams with a padding of points and I’m betting on two of them with my NFL Underdogs picks. But before you go all “Grinch” on my ass, let me explain why those two host pups don’t fit the mold.

Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 22-20 ATS

NFL Week 16 predictions and picks

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs pick

My pick: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5
(-113 at BetRivers)

Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury has oddsmakers playing it safe with this Saturday game, setting the Kansas City Chiefs as slim home underdogs. Before that injury, Kansas City was a 3.5-point home favorite on the look-ahead line.

Mahomes is “week-to-week,” according to Chiefs coach Andy Reid and while he did look fairly mobile moving about after Sunday’s win over Cleveland and has played through this shit before, sprains feel worse the days following the injury.

Kansas City has a short week to get healthy for the Houston Texans and then faces an even shorter window before playing at Pittsburgh on Christmas Day next Wednesday. Knowing this, there’s a good shot KC will convince Mahomes to sit out Week 16 and go with capable backup Carson Wentz.

With Wentz under center, the Chiefs finally have something to rally around after being stuck on cruise control for the better part of the schedule. Let’s not dismiss this defense, which has fallen off in recent weeks but is still among the most disruptive in the land.

Steve Spagnuolo blitzes the balls off rival QBs and owns the sixth-highest pressure rate per dropback. Kansas City may have only 32 sacks on the season but ranks Top 5 in both hurries and QB hits.

That aggressive scheme will overwhelm a Houston offensive line that has struggled with injuries and inconsistency the past two seasons. 

The Texans are 25th in pass block win rate, allowing second-year passer C.J. Stroud to feel the third-highest rate of pressure, which has boiled down to a league-high 58 hurries, 39 hits, 45 sacks, and a partridge in a pear tree.

On top of that, Arrowhead Stadium will be blackout drunk on Saturday (with all day Sunday to sleep it off), which means deafening crowd noise for an offense that’s been flagged for the ninth-most false starts.

If that wasn’t already a home-field edge, temperatures in KC are expected to be chilly on Saturday afternoon, with some forecasts calling for temperatures to "feel like" 27 degrees around the 1 p.m. ET kickoff. Arrowhead will feel worlds away from the safe climate-controlled confines of NRG Stadium.

Stroud has played in only nine outdoor games in his two years in the pros, watching his completion rate slip to 57.97% and his yards per attempt shrink to 6.59, compared to 8.21 yards/attempt on 66.2% completions indoors.

If Mahomes does suit up, BONUS! We will have gotten a great number with this spread swinging back toward Chiefs -3.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders pick

My pick: Las Vegas Raiders +1.5
(-110 at bet365)

If it wasn’t for some NFL player props, I would have skipped the Las Vegas Raiders’ appearance on Monday Night Football in Week 15. Unfortunately, I put myself through that painful exercise and felt dirty all over because of it. Funny, a lot of things in Vegas make you feel that way.

Out of that suffering comes insight and extra points, as Vegas opened as a 1.5-point home favorite but flipped to +1.5 with early play on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Las Vegas looked horrible on offense for most of Monday’s game, with backup QB Desmond Ridder reeling in what had become a dangerous downfield attack since Scott Turner took over as the offensive coordinator.

Week 16 will see the return of Aidan O’Connell at quarterback. He was battling a knee injury and was downgraded to the team’s emergency QB on Monday, which means he should be good to go for this Sunday’s "Tank-a-Thon" at home.

With O’Connell under center, Turner’s aggressive playcalling has proved potent and should have little trouble testing the Jags' porous pass defense. Jacksonville has allowed the most “home run” plays on the season, with 63 completions of 20 or more yards allowed — 13 for 40-plus. It sits dead last in EPA allowed per dropback by a large margin.

The Raiders defense isn’t much better, but the blitz-happy pass rush has been on one in recent weeks. Las Vegas has collected 12 sacks over the past three games after totaling only 17 in the opening 11. It actually boasts the No. 4 pass rush win rate at ESPN.

Jacksonville has backup Mac Jones at quarterback. He rates among the worst QBs in the league against the blitz (47th to be exact) as well as under pressure, according to PFF, and his two turnovers cost the Jags a win over the Jets in Week 15.

The Raiders and Jaguars are sliding toward the No. 1 overall pick, but I’m not buying into the "Tank for Shedeur" signs in Allegiant Stadium. Coach Antonio Pierce is trying to boost his resume for the offseason job hunt and O’Connell is playing to stay in the QB1 conversation.


Covers NFL betting tools


San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins pick

My pick: San Francisco 49ers +1.5
(-115 at FanDuel)

We get a "Master vs. Pupil" non-conference contest when Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco 49ers cross the country to face his former assistant Mike McDaniel and the Miami Dolphins.

The 49ers are about as healthy as they’re going to get, coming off a mini-bye after last week’s loss to the L.A. Rams on Thursday Night Football. That soggy 12-6 finish should be taken with a grain of salt and I expect Brock Purdy and the passing game to have a much better day in Miami.

The Dolphins defense is dreadful and has been especially soft over the last three showings. Miami has given up an average of 5.8 yards per play and ranks 26th in EPA allowed per snap since Week 13.

What’s more, Miami doesn’t bring much pressure and mixes zone and man coverage in the secondary. It’s notably vulnerable in zone schemes, ranking 30th in team coverage rate at PFF. Purdy is one of the best QBs in the league versus zone defense, owning the No. 1 passer rating against those concepts.

As for the San Francisco stop unit, it got key bodies back last week and should be even stronger in Week 16. Dre Greenlaw made his return last Thursday and DE Joey Bosa was back as well. 

The Niners will have plenty of inside intel on McDaniel’s playbook, seeing that it’s rooted in Shanahan’s schemes, and the Dolphins could be down one of their biggest weapons in WR Jaylen Waddle (knee) and continue to miss top tackle Terron Armstead.

Shanahan got the best of McDaniel in their first meeting back in December 2022. The 49ers rolled the Dolphins 33-17 in what would be Purdy's coming-out party. The San Francisco defense snatched three interceptions along with a fumble recovering and allowed Miami just 19:26 of TOP.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Pages related to this topic

Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
seductrice.net
universo-virtual.com
buytrendz.net
thisforall.net
benchpressgains.com
qthzb.com
mindhunter9.com
dwjqp1.com
secure-signup.net
ahaayy.com
tressesindia.com
puresybian.com
krpano-chs.com
cre8workshop.com
hdkino.org
peixun021.com
qz786.com
utahperformingartscenter.org
worldqrmconference.com
shangyuwh.com
eejssdfsdfdfjsd.com
playminecraftfreeonline.com
trekvietnamtour.com
your-business-articles.com
essaywritingservice10.com
hindusamaaj.com
joggingvideo.com
wandercoups.com
wormblaster.net
tongchengchuyange0004.com
internetknowing.com
breachurch.com
peachesnginburlesque.com
dataarchitectoo.com
clientfunnelformula.com
30pps.com
cherylroll.com
ks2252.com
prowp.net
webmanicura.com
sofietsshotel.com
facetorch.com
nylawyerreview.com
apapromotions.com
shareparelli.com
goeaglepointe.com
thegreenmanpubphuket.com
karotorossian.com
publicsensor.com
taiwandefence.com
epcsur.com
southstills.com
tvtv98.com
thewellington-hotel.com
bccaipiao.com
colectoresindustrialesgs.com
shenanddcg.com
capriartfilmfestival.com
replicabreitlingsale.com
thaiamarinnewtoncorner.com
gkmcww.com
mbnkbj.com
andrewbrennandesign.com
cod54.com
luobinzhang.com
faithfirst.net
zjyc28.com
tongchengjinyeyouyue0004.com
nhuan6.com
kftz5k.com
oldgardensflowers.com
lightupthefloor.com
bahamamamas-stjohns.com
ly2818.com
905onthebay.com
fonemenu.com
notanothermovie.com
ukrainehighclassescort.com
meincmagazine.com
av-5858.com
yallerdawg.com
donkeythemovie.com
corporatehospitalitygroup.com
boboyy88.com
miteinander-lernen.com
dannayconsulting.com
officialtomsshoesoutletstore.com
forsale-amoxil-amoxicillin.net
generictadalafil-canada.net
guitarlessonseastlondon.com
lesliesrestaurants.com
mattyno9.com
nri-homeloans.com
rtgvisas-qatar.com
salbutamolventolinonline.net
sportsinjuries.info
wedsna.com
rgkntk.com
bkkmarketplace.com
zxqcwx.com
breakupprogram.com
boxcardc.com
unblockyoutubeindonesia.com
fabulousbookmark.com
beat-the.com
guatemala-sailfishing-vacations-charters.com
magie-marketing.com
kingstonliteracy.com
guitaraffinity.com
eurelookinggoodapparel.com
howtolosecheekfat.net
marioncma.org
oliviadavismusic.com
shantelcampbellrealestate.com
shopleborn13.com
topindiafree.com
v-visitors.net
djjky.com
053hh.com
originbluei.com
baucishotel.com
33kkn.com
intrinsiqresearch.com
mariaescort-kiev.com
mymaguk.com
sponsored4u.com
crimsonclass.com
bataillenavale.com
searchtile.com
ze-stribrnych-struh.com
zenithalhype.com
modalpkv.com
bouisset-lafforgue.com
useupload.com
37r.net
autoankauf-muenster.com
bantinbongda.net
bilgius.com
brabustermagazine.com
indigrow.org
miicrosofts.net
mysmiletravel.com
selinasims.com
spellcubesapp.com
usa-faction.com
hypoallergenicdogsnames.com
dailyupdatez.com
foodphotographyreviews.com
cricutcom-setup.com
chprowebdesign.com
katyrealty-kanepa.com
tasramar.com
bilgipinari.org
four-am.com
indiarepublicday.com
inquick-enbooks.com
iracmpi.com
kakaschoenen.com
lsm99flash.com
nana1255.com
ngen-niagara.com
technwzs.com
virtualonlinecasino1345.com
wallpapertop.net
casino-natali.com
iprofit-internet.com
denochemexicana.com
eventhalfkg.com
medcon-taiwan.com
life-himawari.com
myriamshomes.com
nightmarevue.com
healthandfitnesslives.com
androidnews-jp.com
allstarsru.com
bestofthebuckeyestate.com
bestofthefirststate.com
bestwireless7.com
britsmile.com
declarationintermittent.com
findhereall.com
jingyou888.com
lsm99deal.com
lsm99galaxy.com
moozatech.com
nuagh.com
patliyo.com
philomenamagikz.net
rckouba.net
saturnunipessoallda.com
tallahasseefrolics.com
thematurehardcore.net
totalenvironment-inthatquietearth.com
velislavakaymakanova.com
vermontenergetic.com
kakakpintar.com
begorgeouslady.com
1800birks4u.com
2wheelstogo.com
6strip4you.com
bigdata-world.net
emailandco.net
gacapal.com
jharpost.com
krishnaastro.com
lsm99credit.com
mascalzonicampani.com
sitemapxml.org
thecityslums.net
topagh.com
flairnetwebdesign.com
rajasthancarservices.com
bangkaeair.com
beneventocoupon.com
noternet.org
oqtive.com
smilebrightrx.com
decollage-etiquette.com
1millionbestdownloads.com
7658.info
bidbass.com
devlopworldtech.com
digitalmarketingrajkot.com
fluginfo.net
naqlafshk.com
passion-decouverte.com
playsirius.com
spacceleratorintl.com
stikyballs.com
top10way.com
yokidsyogurt.com
zszyhl.com
16firthcrescent.com
abogadolaboralistamd.com
apk2wap.com
aromacremeria.com
banparacard.com
bosmanraws.com
businessproviderblog.com
caltonosa.com
calvaryrevivalchurch.org
chastenedsoulwithabrokenheart.com
cheminotsgardcevennes.com
cooksspot.com
cqxzpt.com
deesywig.com
deltacartoonmaps.com
despixelsetdeshommes.com
duocoracaobrasileiro.com
fareshopbd.com
goodpainspills.com
hemendekor.com
kobisitecdn.com
makaigoods.com
mgs1454.com
piccadillyresidences.com
radiolaondafresca.com
rubendorf.com
searchengineimprov.com
sellmyhrvahome.com
shugahouseessentials.com
sonihullquad.com
subtractkilos.com
valeriekelmansky.com
vipasdigitalmarketing.com
voolivrerj.com
zeelonggroup.com
1015southrockhill.com
10x10b.com
111-online-casinos.com
191cb.com
3665arpentunitd.com
aitesonics.com
bag-shokunin.com
brightotech.com
communication-digitale-services.com
covoakland.org
dariaprimapack.com
freefortniteaccountss.com
gatebizglobal.com
global1entertainmentnews.com
greatytene.com
hiroshiwakita.com
iktodaypk.com
jahatsakong.com
meadowbrookgolfgroup.com
newsbharati.net
platinumstudiosdesign.com
slotxogamesplay.com
strikestaruk.com
trucosdefortnite.com
ufabetrune.com
weddedtowhitmore.com
12940brycecanyonunitb.com
1311dietrichoaks.com
2monarchtraceunit303.com
601legendhill.com
850elaine.com
adieusolasomade.com
andora-ke.com
bestslotxogames.com
cannagomcallen.com
endlesslyhot.com
iestpjva.com
ouqprint.com
pwmaplefest.com
qtylmr.com
rb88betting.com
buscadogues.com
1007macfm.com
born-wild.com
growthinvests.com
promocode-casino.com
proyectogalgoargentina.com
wbthompson-art.com
whitemountainwheels.com
7thavehvl.com
developmethis.com
funkydogbowties.com
travelodgegrandjunction.com
gao-town.com
globalmarketsuite.com
blogshippo.com
hdbka.com
proboards67.com
outletonline-michaelkors.com
kalkis-research.com
thuthuatit.net
buckcash.com
hollistercanada.com
docterror.com
asadart.com
vmayke.org
erwincomputers.com
dirimart.org
okkii.com
loteriasdecehegin.com
mountanalog.com
healingtaobritain.com
ttxmonitor.com
nwordpress.com
11bolabonanza.com