The Edmonton Oilers haven’t kicked it into high gear yet, and on the surface, they have a tough home date with the Tampa Bay Lightning at Rogers Place tonight.
Tampa Bay hasn’t been a strong 5-on-5 team away from home, while Edmonton has caved opponents in with elite fancy stats, and my Lightning vs. Oilers predictions call for Edmonton to capitalize on the 5-on-5 and capture two points.
Here are my NHL picks for December 10.
Oilers vs Lightning prediction
My Oilers pick
Oilers moneyline (-147 at BET99)
My Oilers analysis
The Edmonton Oilers have been one of the most unlucky teams on home ice this season.
Their 7-6-1 record isn’t indicative of their on-ice dominance, with a 6.48 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 ranking 30th in the league and coming despite driving possession with a second-ranked 57.7 Corsi For percentage and 56.8 expected goals percentage.
Edmonton also paces the league in shots per game (33.9) at Rogers Place. It’s tough to consistently tilt the ice in your favor to that degree and not pile up wins.
While goaltending and special teams have definitely been shortcomings for Edmonton along the way, the Oilers ranking 30th overall in team shooting percentage (7.29) at 5-on-5 with the noted lower mark on home ice has screaming statistical correction ahead.
For comparison, the Oil posted an 8.81 overall mark last year, with a 9.96 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 at home. This should also be a good matchup for Edmonton to continue controlling the play, too.
The Tampa Bay Lightning haven’t been effective at 5-on-5 on the highway, and they could also be without go-to center Anthony Cirelli and defenseman Erik Cernak for tonight’s tilt after both missed Monday’s practice with undisclosed injuries.
| 5-on-5 | Home | Road |
|---|---|---|
| Corsi For percentage | 52.7% | 48.5% |
| Expected goals percentage | 54.0% | 47.5% |
| Team shooting percentage | 12.2% | 10.76% |
| Team save percentage | .933 | .893 |
Tampa Bay’s 10.76 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 on the highway ranks fourth in the league and is unsustainably high. Additionally, against a possession hog like Edmonton, the Bolts are all the more likely to have a tough time maintaining that scoring efficiency.
The final piece of the puzzle is Edmonton No. 1 Stuart Skinner finally coming around. He’s won seven of his past 11 starts, including three of the past four, with a .945 SV%, 1.52 GAA, and 2.07 goals saved above average.
Oilers vs Lightning same-game parlay (SGP)
Oilers moneyline
Under 6.5
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 0.5 points
Edmonton has gone Under the number in three of its past four games, and I’m expecting Skinner to show up again tonight. As noted, the Lightning will have a tough time maintaining their unsustainably high road shooting percentage, too.
Oilers winger Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has had particularly tough puck luck on home ice, with his 1.35 points per 60 and 3.1 shooting percentage noticeably below his 1.86 and 12.0 road marks. Additionally, RNH posted 2.93 points per 60 with a 10.7 SH% at Rogers Place over the previous three years.
Of course, the 31-year-old forward also projects to jump the boards with superstar Connor McDavid at even strength and with the No. 1 power-play unit, and the duo have been on the ice for 7.91 goals per 60 over the past three seasons.
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Oilers vs Lightning odds
Oilers vs Lightning live odds
Oilers vs Lightning opening odds
- Puck line: Edmonton -1.5 (+160) | Tampa Bay +1.5 (-190)
- Moneyline: Edmonton +125 | Tampa Bay -150
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-115) | Under 6.5 (-105)
Odds courtesy of BET99
Oilers vs Lightning trend
The Edmonton Oilers have hit the game total Under in 59 of their last 110 games (+11.75 Units / 10% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs. Lightning.
How to watch Oilers vs Lightning
| Location: | Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-10-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet 1 |
Oilers vs Lightning latest injuries
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