The Ottawa Senators welcome the Anaheim Ducks to the Canadian Tire Centre on Wednesday, December 11 at 7:30 p.m. ET on Sportsnet.
Ottawa is below the playoff line and needs to start picking up wins in bunches to end a seven-year postseason drought, and our top Senators vs. Ducks predictions and NHL picks call for the home team to take care of business in regulation.
Senators vs Ducks prediction
My Senators pick
Senators in regulation (-134 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
The Ottawa Senators have been one of the more unlucky teams at 5-on-5 with the fourth-lowest PDO (97.8) despite tilting the ice in their favor with a seventh-ranked 52.5 Corsi For percentage and eighth-ranked 52.2 expected goals percentage.
It’s been even more pronounced at the Canadian Tire Centre, too.
Ottawa sports a higher 53.4 CF% and 54.4 xGF% with a slightly lower 97.5 PDO. The Sens are also 8-6-1 at home compared to 4-7-1 on the highway.
Sens No. 1 Linus Ullmark is also dialing in, winning three of his past four starts with a high-end .939 save percentage and 1.96 GAA with 3.63 total goals saved above average.
The Anaheim Ducks rank 30th in goals per game (2.42), 28th in goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and 29th with a 15.8 power-play percentage also bodes well for Ullmark staying hot.
This also checks out as a 5-on-5 mismatch with Anaheim sporting a 30th-ranked 45.7 CF% and 32nd-ranked 43.8 xGF%, and the Ducks have also dropped three straight, including two in regulation.
The elephant in the room, or on the ice, is Anaheim has been a defensive force on the road with the third-fewest goals against (2.36). Still, the Ducks are set for serious statistical correction on the highway with their .943 team save percentage at 5-on-5 being beyond unsustainable given their 31st-ranked 43.5 CF% and league-low 39.8 xGF%.
Finally, this is a must-win game on the calendar if the Sens are going to start a postseason push because they have a nine-game road trip bookending the upcoming holiday break.
Senators vs Ducks Odds analysis
There hasn’t been notable movement to this moneyline or puck line at Pinnacle. The price is already steep on the Ottawa side, and given the highlighted gap in the 5-on-5 numbers, I’m not surprised there hasn’t been action on Anaheim.
It’s a similar story with the 6.0 total at Pinnacle. Neither side has seen significant action, and while Ottawa has trended to the Over at home, Anaheim has actually been stingy on the road with the third-fewest goals against per game (2.36).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Senators vs Ducks odds
Senators vs Ducks live odds
Senators vs Ducks opening odds
- Puck line: Ottawa -1.5 (+111) | Anaheim +1.5 (-128)
- Moneyline: Ottawa -230 | Anaheim +198
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-113) | Under 6 (-101)
Odds courtesy of Pinnacle
Senators vs Ducks trend
The Ottawa Senators have hit the game total Over in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+5.95 Units / 13% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Ducks.
How to watch Senators vs Ducks
| Location: | Canadian Tire Center, Ottawa, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-11-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet |
Senators vs Ducks latest injuries
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