We have a fun matchup in the SEC Championship when Georgia faces off with Texas in Atlanta. Texas will look to finalize its play position, although it's likely in, and, for Georgia, the Dogs' will look to go into selection Sunday without a sweat.
My Georiga vs Texas player props hone in on the two passing games with an Under and an Over.
Here are my free college football picks for Saturday, December 7.
Georgia vs Texas props for the SEC Championship
Dominic Lovett Under 52.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Gunnar Helm Over 45.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Texas to score first touchdown (-150 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 12-7.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Georgia vs Texas college football player props
Prop bet #1: Dominic Lovett Under 52.5 receiving yards
If you want to call the Georgia Bulldogs' season somewhat disappointing up to this point, the lack of a vertical passing game is at the core of some of those issues. No Brock Bowers, no Ladd McConkey has eventually shown, and the Bulldogs have lost much explosiveness compared to the last few years. Don't believe me? Look at the numbers. Georgia had double the number of passing plays of over 40+ yards this time last season and more than the year before. Don't get me wrong, it's still been quite good, just off the pace of the past two seasons.
That brings me to this play. I can't logically understand how this prop was over 50 yards, and I made it 47.5.
This is the best passing defense that Georgia has faced all season, ranking second in EPA per dropback and boosting a highly disruptive front four. Lovett was supposed to make a giant leap this season, but while he's been solid, I wonder if he's met expectations.
Texas did a great job defending yards after the catch in the first meeting this season against him when Lovett had four catches for just 35 yards. Jahdae Barron is a likely NFL draft first-round guy at defensive back, and Malik Muhammad will eventually be there. I can't get to this number, and it must be proven wrong. I'd play to 49.5
Prop bet #2: Gunnar Helm Over 45.5 receiving yards
Gunnar Helm has started to get consistent production as the season has neared its end. In November, Helm averaged 49 receiving yards and went over this number in the final two games. He makes three straight.
In the first meeting, Georgia allowed the senior tight end to catch a conference-high six receptions and compiled 62 yards. The Dawgs also looked pretty content with that, opting to protect in some deep coverages and not allow the deep play. That's fine with me. Beyond that, whether by design or not, Georgia's defense has struggled against opposing tight ends to end the season. Against Georgia Tech, Jackson Hawes provided a nice release valve for QB Haynes King with 46 yards on four receptions. The Power
Five opponents before that was Tennessee, whose leading receiver was tight end Miles Kitselman. While this is baked into the number to a certain degree, I don't think it's enough. I made this 50.5.
Prop bet #3: Texas to score first touchdown
This game is a tale of two teams that have been strong all season. The main difference is that Georgia has been good, with a 1st quarter-scoring margin of +10.7, ranking 23rd in the country, while Texas has been elite, ranking 4th nationally with a margin of +23.2.
Situationally, I love this play.
Texas has circled this game for months, and while the motivation for either team means next to nothing because both will be highly motivated to win, the game planning for things does matter. The opening game scripts for Steve Sarkisian have been something that he's heavily emphasized in his program since arriving in Texas. The start of the game in the first meeting against Georgia was one of the lone outliners where the Dawgs' struggled mightily to start the game. That doesn't happen twice. Sakasian has spoken often about opening game scripts, and it's shown in the numbers that Quinn Ewers puts up nearly 82% passing accuracy on his opening drives. Contrast that with Georgia, who just had to empty the playbook in an eight-overtime game against Georgia Tech and who has started slow for a few weeks. They went down 17-0 to the Yellowjackets last week and trailed against Umass 7-0 the week before. Whether it be personnel-related or coaching acumen, Texas has shown a clear edge over the previous few weeks in starting games, which continues here.
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