The Georgia Bulldogs facing off against the Texas Longhorns in today's SEC Championship isn’t a surprising matchup. However, the way we got here certainly wasn’t straightforward.
My Georgia vs. Texas predictions expect this marquee matchup to provide drama, but not much scoring. Here are my college football picks for this evening's SEC Championship Game.
Kickoff is set for 4:00 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, with the game airing on ABC.
Georgia vs Texas prediction and best bet
Who will win Georgia vs Texas?
Yes, Georgia beat Texas the last time they met... in Austin. However, the Bulldogs have rarely looked that good this season. In fact, you could say that was their peak. Carson Beck’s decision-making skills are still in question and the Dawgs are lacking elite playmakers.
Meanwhile, Texas is in the conversation for the best team in the country. This is a talented and deep roster. The defense is on par with its Georgia counterparts and Quinn Ewers will be the best quarterback on the field.
Prediction: Texas will get its revenge on Saturday and win the SEC in its debut season.
My best bet
Pick: Under 50.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Texas Longhorns have looked like the best team in the SEC from start to finish. But their lone blemish is a loss to the team they’ll face in the SEC Championship Game, the Georgia Bulldogs.
Georgia went into Austin and handed the Longhorns a 30-15 beatdown as 4-point road dogs. It was the best the Bulldogs looked all season. Unfortunately for the Dawgs, they haven’t really come close to matching that effort and some would say they are lucky to have only two losses (cough, cough Georgia Tech).
The problems for the Bulldogs start with their quarterback Carson Beck. Sure, he threw five touchdowns in the second half and overtime last week against Georgia Tech, but remember, Georgia was held scoreless in the first half of that game. And a quick look at his numbers and it doesn’t look too bad. He threw for 3,429 yards with 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
But when you break it down by SEC play, he is averaging just 7.6 yards per attempt and has as many interceptions (12) as touchdown passes. Georgia is also lacking the game-breaking skill position players from years past like Brock Bowers or Ladd McConkey and it has shown.
And now, he’ll have to play his best game of the season against a really good and probably underrated Texas defense. A defense that held him to 175 yards on 41 attempts and picked him off three times in that game.
So, it’s not like he shredded the Longhorns in that win and it’s unlikely things get easier against a Texas defense that ranks second in opponent EPA/play and 22nd in success rate.
But the Longhorns won’t have the only great defense in this game. While this Georgia group isn’t as dominant as in years past it is still loaded with future-NFL talent and comes into this game ranked 12th in opponent EPA/play and 37th in success rate.
Now, this Texas offense is very good but it’s clear that Quinn Ewers is banged up. And that Dawgs defensive line held him to 25-for-43 passing for just 211 yards. That is just 4.7 yards per attempt.
In that October loss, the Longhorns only handed the ball off to running backs 17 times. I expect that to change this time around. Teams that beat Georgia this season, or came close to it, were able to run the ball against the Dawgs and had balance with the passing game. Also, don’t be surprised if we see more packages for Arch Manning in this one.
Simply, I see a matchup of two good defenses against teams who want to establish the run and control the game.
That sounds like an Under to me. Oh, and the stat you need to know. Texas played to the Over just once in eight SEC games this season. I don’t expect that to change in the SEC Championship.
Georgia vs Texas same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 50.5
Tre Wisner Over 79.5 rushing yards
Arch Manning anytime touchdown
I really believe Texas will want to control the game with ball possession and that means running the football. Georgia Tech ran for 260 yards last week. Mississippi went for 134. Alabama totaled 173.
That should mean a nice dose of Tre Wisner in the SEC Championship game. Wisner has really established himself as the Longhorns' lead rusher, particularly in the last three games where he’s rumbled for 403 yards on 76 carries. I like him to top 79.5 rushing yards in this game.
But as noted before, I expect there to be a few packages for uber-backup Arch Manning, particularly inside the red zone. His legs are a real weapon, which we saw when he scored against Texas A&M last week, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they brought him in to power one in at the goal line. If he finds the end zone again, we get ourselves a nice payday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Georgia vs Texas odds
Georgia vs Texas live odds
Georgia vs Texas opening odds
- Georgia vs. Texas spread: Texas -2
- Georgia vs. Texas moneyline: Georgia +105, Texas -125
- Georgia vs. Texas Over/Under: 48.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Georgia vs Texas spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread for this SEC Championship Game opened with Texas as a 2-point favorite and have seen a little more of the action at this point with the line at 2.5.
- The line is interesting considering Texas was a four-point favorite on their home field. Maybe that's due to the fact that this will be a neutral site in name only as the game is played in Atlanta, Georgia.
- The total hit the board at 48.5 and has slowly crept up all week, now sitting at 50.5 as of Friday evening.
- While my bet is on the opposite side of the line movement, I would like the Under at the opening number as well.
- 59% of Covers Consensus users are backing Texas on the spread, while 52% are taking the Over.
Georgia vs Texas betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1-1 in Texas' eight SEC games this season. Find more college football betting trends for Georgia vs Texas.
How to watch Georgia vs Texas game info
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-7, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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