College Football Playoff Odds: How Homefield Advantage Could Shape the First Round

For the first time in college football history, the College Football Playoff bracket will feature on-campus games. When the Indiana Hoosiers visit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Friday, December 20, Notre Dame Stadium will attempt to exert more homefield advantage than is usually seen from the Irish faithful.

Obviously, weather forecasts are hit or miss 10 days ahead of time, but they suggest 30-degree temperatures and 10 miles per hour winds to add to the South Bend comfort.

That, along with home games for the Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes, should make for a stellar introduction to the idea of homefield Playoff games. There clearly is no exact precedent for these moments in college football odds, but taking a look at Notre Dame’s, Penn State’s and Ohio State’s homefield habits of late, as well as the Texas Longhorns’, at least provides a few trends to ponder amid bowl game odds.

College Football National Championship odds

College Football Playoff bracket

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Home

Marcus Freeman’s head-coaching tenure started off poorly at Notre Dame Stadium, losing outright as a three-touchdown favorite to Marshall in 2022 to kickstart beginning his career 0-4 ATS at home. But Freeman has gradually found an impressive groove at home, including going 4-2 against the spread this season, capped by 4-0 ATS in the last four.

Better than that and more pertinently, Notre Dame is 5-0 in November both outright and ATS under Freeman, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by 17.2 points per game in those late-season home tilts.

2024 Notre Dame at home: 4-2 ATS; 5-1 outright.
2023 Notre Dame at home: 4-1 ATS; 4-1 outright. (FBS opponents only)
2022 Notre Dame at home: 2-4 ATS after starting Freeman’s tenure 0-4 ATS at home; 4-2 outright.

Penn State at +650 to win it all or Notre Dame at +900? Which would you rather back?@Covers_Caley & I agree, those two got the best draws in the College Football Playoff bracket.
?Best longshot bet
?Early picks
?Early bowls
?https://t.co/FEyvRlDEUW
?https://t.co/8aiq1IwTnf pic.twitter.com/fPxlr7uW9a

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 10, 2024

Penn State Nittany Lions at Home

James Franklin has been at Penn State since 2014. For the sake of pertinence, let’s discuss games since 2021. A four-year sample size is both notable and contextual.

While the Nittany Lions’ November numbers are not overwhelming, realize it is in part because their toughest home Big Ten game each fall is toward the end of the season against either Michigan or Ohio State. And in November, Penn State has gone 0-3 outright and 0-3 ATS in those moments, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 5.2 points in those three massive contests.

That is all part of the reason Franklin is often referred to as “Big Game James” in a disparaging tone.

The Nittany Lions have gone 5-3-1 both outright and ATS in November since 2021.

2024 Penn State at home: 3-4 ATS; 6-1 outright.
2023 Penn State at home: 4-2 ATS; 5-1 outright. (FBS opponents only)
2022 Penn State at home: 4-2-1 ATS; 6-1 outright.
2021 Penn State at home: 4-2 ATS; 4-2 outright.

Texas Longhorns at Home

Focusing on November performances does not influence thinking as much in Austin, TX. Temperatures in the 40s might not be idyllic, but the Clemson Tigers should not be any more bothered by them than the Longhorns will be.

Looking at Steve Sarkisian’s four years at Texas, though, a different wonder creeps up, one that would be emphasized by those who feel strongly the Longhorns’ strength of schedule did not warrant this No. 5 seed. The Longhorns beef up their schedule by beating up patsies, this season including Colorado State, UTSA, and Louisiana-Monroe, all Texas home games.

The Longhorns went 3-0 at home both outright and against the spread against those non-conference foes, but just 1-3 ATS at home against SEC opponents. Across Sarkisian’s four years, Texas is 16-9-1 ATS at home but just 8-7-1 against conference foes.

Could that middling struggle against elevated opponents be a foreboding sign for the first round of the Playoff? Worry less, Longhorns fans, Texas is 12-4 outright at home in those conference games under Sarkisian. Then again, the biggest upset came as a 29.5-point favorite against Kansas in 2021.

2024 Texas at home: 4-3 ATS; 6-1 outright.
2023 Texas at home: 3-2-1 ATS; 6-0 outright.
2022 Texas at home: 5-2 ATS; 5-2 outright.
2021 Texas at home: 4-2 ATS; 4-2 outright.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Home

This might not be about Ohio State. This might be more about the Tennessee Volunteers. Looking through the Covers database, which extends back to 2006, the Vols have not trekked north later than mid-September in nearly two decades, at the least.

In September 2022, Tennessee’s trip to Pittsburgh went to overtime with the Volunteers prevailing, 34-27, as 6-point favorites. Nine years earlier, Tennessee got blown out in Oregon, losing 59-14 as a four-touchdown underdog. And in 2007, the Volunteers lost, 45-31, at Cal despite being only one-touchdown underdogs. Otherwise, Tennessee has not ventured north of Kentucky.

Those are listed to illustrate Tennessee may be out of its element in the cold of a Columbus night.

When not facing Michigan, Ohio State has fared well at home as temperatures drop, 7-2 both outright and ATS in November since 2021 with both those losses coming at the hands of the Wolverines.

2024 Ohio State at home: 4-4 ATS; 7-1 outright.
2023 Ohio State at home: 5-0 ATS; 5-0 outright.
2022 Ohio State at home: 4-3-1 ATS; 7-1 outright.
2021 Ohio State at home: 4-3 ATS; 6-1 outright.

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