Veteran savvy meets upstart grit in tonight’s NBA Cup quarterfinal between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets, with a trip to the final four in Las Vegas on the line.
Golden State has owned this matchup in recent years, winning the last 10 meetings, and my Warriors vs Rockets predictions point to Steph Curry putting on a show in H-Town.
However, my NBA picks also make the case for Houston in this December 11 clash — and don’t be surprised if the Rockets have the last laugh.
Warriors vs Rockets prediction
My best bet
Steph Curry Over 24.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The NBA Cup knockout games provide an in-season playoff vibe, with bright lights and extra tension. In that environment, who better than Steph Curry to rise to the occasion?
While it’s felt like a more erratic shooting season for Curry, who’s down to 23 ppg, he’s still making his 3-pointers at a 42% clip and attempting 10 triples a night.
We’re a long way removed from the peak of this matchup when the loaded Warriors were taking on James Harden and Chris Paul, but Curry is still the main man. He’s coming off a 30-point outing in Sunday’s win over the Timberwolves, and he breezed past this O/U number twice against the Rockets last season.
While Houston has an array of gritty defenders, opposite number Fred VanVleet has been dealing with a knee injury. That may make Curry’s night easier — and he’s sure to target Alperen Sengun, questionable with a knee issue, on switches.
Curry has been content to share the touches in a Golden State rotation that regularly goes 11 deep, with his workload dipping to 30.5 mpg, but this is a win-or-go-home scenario with a chance to reach the semifinals in Vegas. That feels like a recipe for more of a Game 7 minutes load and 20+ shots.
It doesn’t take much to get Steph going, and he could cruise to this Over if early 3-pointers drop in.
Warriors vs Rockets same-game parlay
Steph Curry Over 24.5 points
Jabari Smith Over 7.5 rebounds
Rockets moneyline
Whether it’s Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, or Jonathan Kuminga, the Warriors are a force on the boards. In fact, these two teams rank first (Houston) and second (Golden State) in rebounds per game this year.
Smith pulled down 12 rebounds in the win over the Clippers at the weekend, and he’s racked up 40 boards across his last four contests. I like the Over on a generous 7.5 O/U line tonight.
Despite my high hopes for Curry’s production tonight, I’m leaning towards the Rockets grinding out a win, overcoming their losing stretch against the Warriors. Houston has posted a 6-3 mark across its last nine games, and Jalen Green came alive with 31 points to sink the Clippers.
VanVleet’s expected return is huge for the hosts, while Golden State’s chances of halting a three-game road skid take a hit if Andrew Wiggins is ruled out again.
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Warriors vs Rockets odds
Warriors vs Rockets live odds
Warriors vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Golden State +2.5 | Houston -2.5
- Moneyline: Golden State +120 | Houston -140
- Over/Under: Over 221 | Under 221
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Warriors vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- At 16-8, the Rockets are making a statement in the crowded Western Conference and enter as slight favorites here — in part thanks to a 9-3 mark at Toyota Center.
- The Warriors have won 24 of their last 34 games away from Chase Center, but they’ve been held to 105 points or fewer in four of their past six contests overall.
- Though the Under is 8-2 in Golden State’s past 10 games, Houston has hit the Over in five of its last six contests — and in 26 of its last 41 outings.
- The Rockets lead the NBA in field goal attempts per game (94.4), while the Warriors rank fourth.
Warriors vs Rockets trend
The Rockets are 33-15 ATS in their last 48 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Rockets.
How to watch Warriors vs Rockets
| Location: | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-11-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Warriors vs Rockets latest injuries
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