A new era of postseason college football kicks off in just under two weeks, with fans getting their hands on the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff bracket.
The college football national championship odds have made their move based on each team's projected path to a title, and our college football picks break down where those paths begin for those playing first-round games.
2024 CFP First-Round Odds
No. 10 Indiana vs No. 7 Notre Dame
- Location: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN
- Kick-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN, ABC
The key to Indiana's hopes (+7.5) in this game will be how this Kurtis Rourke-led passing attack fares against one of the best secondaries in the nation, one that ranks Top 5 in any number of related metrics. Considering the 68 yards, eight completions, and no scoring strikes he logged against a comparable Ohio State secondary a few weeks ago, this might be a particularly rough evening.
And while slowing Notre Dame's ground game is a tall task for anyone (second in yards per carry, 6.3), the Hoosiers rank second in the nation in opponent yards per carry. If this total of 50.5 creeps up at any point, I'll be jumping on the Under.
No. 11 SMU vs No. 6 Penn State
- Location: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
- Kick-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
The pressure will certainly mount on James Franklin in the lead-up to this game, but that's not to say he won't be thrilled with where it fell in the bracket.
And while I expect Penn State (-8.5) to pull away at some point, it's not a thought to be trusted. Instead, target the Over. The Nittany Lions have scored 35+ points in five of their last six and SMU's been doing much of the same (36.8 ppg on the season).
No. 12 Clemson vs No. 5 Texas
- Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
- Kick-off: 4:00 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
This could be a much tougher test for Texas than this 10.5-point spread suggests, and if I were to call my shot on one first-round upset, this would be it. This Longhorns offense has mustered just one offensive touchdown since halftime of Rivalry Week (six full quarters and an OT).
Unlike Indiana and SMU above, Dabo Swinney has oodles of postseason experience with Clemson. It's partly why the Tigers were able to win the ACC title game as underdogs and why I view Clemson +11 as the best bet.
No. 9 Tennessee vs No. 8 Ohio State
- Location: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
- Kick-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN, ABC
While Ohio State (-7.5) and its returning seniors won't be able to avenge that ugly Michigan loss, a deep run in the College Football Playoff — starting with one final home game against Tennessee — would certainly serve as a worthy consolation prize.
I expect this No. 1-ranked Buckeyes scoring defense to keep freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava at bay, and once you factor in Ohio State's ongoing offensive line issues, scoring could be particularly hard to come by. I have my eyes on the Under 47.5.
How important is home-field advantage during the first round?
As a general rule of thumb, most oddsmakers believe home-field advantage to be worth about three points to any given spread, though some tougher road environments could give a 3.5-point edge to the home side (think Kyle Field or Tiger Stadium).
None of the four programs hosting in Round 1 are undefeated at home this season, but Penn State likely has the most notable home-field advantage. Happy Valley's noise can be tough on opposing offenses, with opponents scoring just north of 11 points per game in Penn State's seven home games this season.
2024 College Football Playoff Championship Odds
The Oregon Ducks may have started slow, but they’ve quickly silenced any doubts and have emerged as a true national title contender. Their statement win over Ohio State, followed by a dominant Big Ten Championship Game victory over Penn State, capped off a flawless 13-0 season.
Now, as the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff with a coveted first-round bye, Oregon is leading the charge as a top title contender, with odds as short as +310. They’ll be waiting to face the winner of the Tennessee-Ohio State showdown in Round 1, ready to make its championship run.
CFP First Round Odds FAQ
The 2024 CFP first-round games will be played on Friday, December 20 and Saturday, December 21.
College football expanded its playoff format to enhance the sport's fairness, increase excitement, and boost revenue.
The selection of teams for the College Football Playoff (CFP) is a multi-step process, managed by a 13-member selection committee. While the exact procedures and criteria are refined each year, the overall selection process is based upon record, strength of schedule, performance against ranked opponents, and conference championships.
