The Colgate Raiders head to Lexington to take on the No. 5 ranked Kentucky Wildcats in NCAA basketball action tonight.
With two teams on opposite spectrums of the KenPom ratings the Wildcats are massive 32-point favorites and my Colgate vs. Kentucky predictions aren't shying away from taking the chalk.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this clash on December 11.
Colgate vs Kentucky prediction
My best bet
Kentucky -32 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Kentucky Wildcats are 8-1 with a pair of wins against Top-10 opponents. They've beaten four teams by at least 30 points — and three of those schools are higher than the Colgate Raiders in the KenPom ratings. Meanwhile, Colgate is 2-8, including losses by 22+ points to Cornell, Appalachian State, and N.C. State.
This could be a letdown spot for Kentucky after a thrilling overtime win against No. 8 Gonzaga and it's conceivable that the Raiders pull off the cover, if the Wildcats get a comfortable lead and take their foot off the pedal... but I think it's unlikely, for a few reasons.
There's an old adage that "defense travels" but the flip side of that is teams that defend poorly tend to struggle on the road. The Raiders are 225th in opponent turnover rate (14.6%), 275th in opponent 2-point percentage (54.6%), and 323rd in opponent 3-point percentage (37.3%). They'll be torched by an uptempo UK squad that is 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency and can score inside and out.
Once the Raiders start playing from behind, they'll resort to chucking up the ball as they try to catch up. Colgate sits outside the Top 300 in attacking the rim frequency, while ranking 37th in midrange frequency and 54th in 3-point rate. Relying on outside shots is a bad idea in a hostile environment like Rupp Arena, especially since the Wildcats hold opponents to just 25.3% shooting from deep. When those perimeter shots don't drop, the scoring margin should only widen.
The Wildcats could rest starters if they build an early lead but that won't matter due to their depth. This is a lineup with Koby Brea, Ansley Almonor, Kerr Kriisa, and Brandon Garrison playing major minutes off the bench. Brea and Almonor were former stars at mid-major conferences, Kriisa was a three-year starter for Arizona and West Virginia, while Garrison was a four-star recruit who started as a freshman at Oklahoma State last year.
Even with those "backups" on the floor, Kentucky should run up the score.
Colgate vs Kentucky same-game parlay
Kentucky -32
Over 156.5
The Raiders prefer a slower pace but don't have the ability to dictate tempo, and will find themselves sucked into Kentucky's run-and-gun style. UK is playing at a break-neck pace in Mark Pope's first year leading the program, ranking ninth in the country in average offensive possession length (15.1 seconds).
Thanks to that speedy tempo and efficient offense the Wildcats lead the country with 92.6 ppg and have scored 95+ points in five of six games against mid-major foes. The Over has also gone a sizzling 17-4 in their last 21 games in Lexington.
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Colgate vs Kentucky odds
Colgate vs Kentucky live odds
Colgate vs Kentucky opening odds
- Spread: Colgate +30.5 | Kentucky -30.5
- Moneyline: Colgate +3,300 | Kentucky -10,000
- Over/Under: Over 158 | Under 158
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Colgate vs Kentucky betting trend to know
Kentucky has hit the team total Over in 23 of its last 33 games (+11.55 Units / 30% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Colgate vs. Kentucky.
How to watch Colgate vs Kentucky
| Location: | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-11-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Colgate vs Kentucky key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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