The No. 1 ranked Tennessee Volunteers face off against the Miami Hurricanes in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden tonight.
The Hurricanes made the Final Four just two seasons ago but have struggled this season, which is why my Miami vs. Tennessee predictions are fading them on a hefty spread.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this Tuesday, December 10 clash at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Miami vs Tennessee prediction
My best bet
Tennessee -15 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Tennessee Volunteers have been dominant, going 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread. The Vols are coming off a 96-70 beatdown of Syracuse and have an average scoring margin of +26.8 points. Their closest game was a 77-62 rout of Baylor, who is at No. 23 in the KenPom ratings.
Meanwhile, the Miami Hurricanes are on a six-game losing streak after a 65-55 home loss to Clemson. They've covered the spread just once over their last eight games and that came against an Arkansas squad that has also been overvalued by oddsmakers (1-5 ATS in its last six).
The Hurricanes are 19th in offensive efficiency (117.4 points per 100 possessions) and 36th in effective field goal percentage (56.2%). However, those numbers are skewed from their first three games of the season when they beat up terrible small-conference schools.
Since November 18, the Canes' offensive efficiency has dropped to 107.5 while their EFG% has plummeted to 50.6%. Things were even uglier on defense during that six-game span, with Miami ranking outside the Top 300 in opponent effective field goal percentage (55.1%), opponent turnover rate (14.3%), and defensive rebounding rate.
In the last few years, the Canes made up for their leaky defense with an efficient offense, but they've been stale in half-court sets and haven't moved well off the ball this season. They don't get to the free-throw line, have poor passing, and jack up too many ill-advised shots from deep.
If the Canes couldn't crack the 60-point mark against Clemson at home, they won't score against a Tennessee squad that is second in the country in adjusted defense. Their terrible defense will also be torched by the Vols, who are fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency at Bart Torvik and rank second in EFG% (60.5%).
Miami vs Tennessee same-game parlay
Tennessee -14.5
Over 145.5
Nijel Pack Over 11.5 points
Both teams are outside the Top 250 in adjusted tempo but play at an average pace when they have the ball. It's their average length of defensive possessions that have been slowing their games down. An uptick in tempo combined with Miami's terrible defensive play has me leaning toward the Over.
Miami's offense will be inefficient but ball-dominant point guard Nijel Pack should shoot enough to go Over his low points total. The senior leads the team with 14.1 ppg and has scored 17+ in five of nine.
Pack is coming off a game where he was held scoreless and went 0-for-7 from 3-point range. However, he entered that contest shooting 43.9% from deep and has shot 40.3% from the arc in his career, so he should see positive regression.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Miami vs Tennessee odds
Miami vs Tennessee live odds
Miami vs Tennessee opening odds
- Spread: Miami +17 | Tennessee -17
- Moneyline: Miami +1,000 | Tennessee -2,000
- Over/Under: Over 145 | Under 145
Odds courtesy of bet365
Miami vs Tennessee betting trend to know
The Hurricanes have gone below their team total in 22 of their last 32 games (+10.70 Units / 30% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Miami vs. Tennessee.
How to watch Miami vs Tennessee
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-10-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Miami vs Tennessee key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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