Sunday sees a Top 25 showdown in college basketball as the UConn Huskies play their first true road game against the Texas Longhorns.
UConn will hope to see the return of Alex Karaban while adding a second win over a Power 4 foe inside a week. Texas looks to build off a four-point win at NC State by picking up its first-ranked win of the season.
I explain why the home team is in a better position in my UConn vs. Texas predictions and college basketball picks for Sunday, December 8.
UConn vs Texas prediction
My best bet
Texas moneyline (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
UConn has lost three games already this season, all of which came away from home in the Maui Invitational. It started with a two-point overtime defeat to Memphis, before losing by one point to Colorado. The Huskies ended the trip with an 18-point defeat to Dayton, a costly defeat as Alax Karaban hit his head on the floor with just a few minutes remaining.
The lasting image from Maui was of Dan Hurley complaining to the refs about calls, and when you look at some of the numbers it makes sense as to why. In those three games, UConn posted a foul rate of 35.5%. That number is nearly 11 percentage points higher than the foul rate the Huskies have in home games.
Three different UConn players fouled out against Memphis, while two were sent packing in the loss to UConn. Samson Johnson was disqualified in both contests, and the four-point win over Baylor on Wednesday saw him foul out for the third time in his last five games. And against Baylor, he was one of four UConn players to end the game with four or more fouls.
Now as the Huskies play their first true road game of the season, they do so having seen their foul rate top 30% in the last three games. That’s going to be a problem against a Texas team that ranks Top 100 in free throw rate and 85th in defensive foul rate.
UConn has been a terrific rebounding team this year, ranked Top 40 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate. Karaban is expected to return after missing the last two games, but he, Johnson, and Tarris Reed Jr will be facing a front line anchored by Arthur Kaluma. The big man just grabbed 15 rebounds against NC State, and has been a big part of Texas having the top 2-pt defense in college basketball.
And while UConn ranks Top 15 in 2-pt defense, it ranks 294th in 3-pt defense and Hurley has spoken at length about having to improve defensively. Texas ranks 64th in 3-pt%, and while the Longhorns don’t attempt a high number of efforts from downtown, they made eight of 17 attempts against NC State and might up their output given the matchup.
Texas posted its best offensive rebound rate of the season against NC State, hauling in nearly 40% of its misses. That’s an area where UConn has struggled at times. The Huskies have played three teams in the Top 75 of KenPom, and all three hauled in at least 30% of their misses—including a 39.4% ORR by Baylor.
This simply isn’t the same UConn team from a year ago, and even the return of Karaban doesn’t change the fact the Huskies have looked disjointed at the defensive end. And while Texas has feasted on plenty of cupcakes this season, the road win at NC State was a strong one and instills more confidence than what I have in the Huskies.
Given their shaky defense and foul issues, UConn has little margin for error in this game. The Huskies will keep it close, but the Huskies will find it tougher to get quality shots than they’ve been used to this season, and the raucous Longhorn faithful will give the home team enough of a boost to get the job done.
UConn vs Texas same-game parlay
Texas moneyline
Arthur Kaluma 5+ rebounds
Tre Johnson 3+ threes
Kaluma has five or more rebounds in all but one game this season and is averaging eight boards per game. I expect he’ll be crashing the glass often against a UConn team that doesn’t turn the ball over very often, and he’ll reach that floor again.
In their three defeats, the Huskies allowed opponents to make 29 of 55 attempts from beyond the arc. Johnson is averaging seven three-point attempts per game and has made three or more in five of eight contests with an average of 3.3 makes in home games.
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UConn vs Texas odds
UConn vs Texas live odds
UConn vs Texas opening odds
- Spread: UConn +1.5 | Texas -1.5
- Moneyline: UConn -104 | Texas -112
- Over/Under: Over 141 | Under 141
Odds courtesy of bet365
UConn vs Texas betting trend to know
Connecticut has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.95 Units / 60% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for UConn vs. Texas.
How to watch UConn vs Texas
| Location: | Moody Center, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-8-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
UConn vs Texas key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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