Winter weather shows up for NFL Week 16 with plenty of chilly temperatures across the country.
The cold alone won’t affect outcomes unless we’re talking crazy cold. But when you mix in wind and possible snow, you get less-than-perfect playing conditions.
Here’s my Week 16 NFL weather report and how to handicap those elements.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens weather
Bundle up in Baltimore for this AFC North rivalry. Temperatures in the Charm City will be hovering around freezing on Saturday and winds will make it “feel like” 20 degrees.
Those breezes will blow at sustained speeds of 8 mph with some forecasts calling for gusts up to 26 mph moving NNW from corner to corner at M&T Stadium.
The cold shouldn’t be much of a factor but if the winds hit the highs, you could see deeper passes and longer field goal kicks getting pushed around. Pittsburgh Steelers QB Russell Wilson and Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson aren’t afraid to air it out.
This total opened at 46.5 and has slimmed a bit to 45.5 O/U.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders weather
Much like Baltimore, Hyattsville will see game-time temperatures around 30 degrees feel more like 20, with sustained winds of 7 mph hitting gusts of 21 mph, moving WNW from corner to corner at Northwest Stadium.
This current forecast is fairly tame, as the cold won’t play a role and the winds are barely above my threshold for speed.
The Over/Under for this NFC East encounter hit the board at 47.5 points and is down to 45.5 O/U.
Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets weather
East Rutherford is a long way from Southern California and the Los Angeles Rams will feel it, with temperatures at 26 degrees getting cooled to “feel like” 18 degrees at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.
Sustained winds of 10 mph will spike to 26 mph gusts, blowing NNW from end to end. As I’ve referenced before, MetLife Stadium sees strange swirling winds in the northwest corner since tearing down the racetrack before last season.
Los Angeles QB Matthew Stafford has experience playing in icy December venues, going back to his time in the NFC North, so the cold shouldn’t have much influence over the offense.
This total is at 46.5 points.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills weather
No wild winds or swirling snow in Orchard Park. Just cold-ass temperatures.
The forecast for Highmark Stadium calls for temperatures of 15 degrees to “feel like” 10 degrees when the Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots.
Temperatures this cold will slightly affect offensive production. While both passing games do a good job limiting drops, New England has fumbled away eight balls this season while the Bills don’t cough the ball up often.
The total opened at 45.5 and is up to 46.5 points.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks weather
It’s a soggy game in Seattle with an 88% chance of light rain throughout this 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
Temperatures will be in the high 40s with sustained winds of 10 mph blowing SE, with some weather models calling for gusts of 22 mph blowing corner to corner at Lumen Field.
Slick footballs can lead to dropped passes and fumbles. Both passing games rank below the league average in drop rate while the Minnesota Vikings’ nine lost fumbles are tied for the sixth most in the NFL.
Slippery field conditions can impact the run games and also slow down aggressive pass rushes. That’s what we see from Minnesota, which blitzes at the highest rate in the league.
This total opened at 44.5 points and dropped as low as 41.5 with Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith fighting through a knee injury. But with Smith expected to play, this number is up to 43.5 O/U.
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers weather
Monday Night Football sees a little bit of everything, with a mix of rain and snow possible for the start of this 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff. Once that sleet stops, there is a possible fog warning for the remainder of the game.
Temperatures won’t be too cold, considering we’re talking about Lambeau Field, sitting around freezing with “feels like” temps at 27 degrees. Winds won’t be a factor.
Should the forecast hold up, this is a lot for the New Orleans Saints to tangle with — especially with a backup QB under center and RB Alvin Kamara likely sitting out Week 16.
This Over/Under opened at 42.5 points and is hanging at the number most of the week.
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