When you have two of the top defenses in the NFL butting heads, points could be at a premium.
That’s why the total for Thursday Night Football’s showdown between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers sits among the shortest numbers on the Week 16 odds board.
Bookies are bracing for only 42 points, which means the “anytime touchdown” props are very particular when it comes to which players will find the end zone in this AFC West war.
I break down that popular prop market and give my best NFL picks regarding TDs for the Broncos vs. Chargers on December 19.
Broncos anytime touchdown pick
Devaughn Vele anytime touchdown
+330 at FanDuel
Devaughn Vele was all but invisible in last week’s win over Indianapolis. Despite playing 60% of snaps, he was targeted only one time and failed to record a catch against the Colts.
The rookie receiver did have a great day against the Chargers back in Week 6. He brought in four of the six passes his way, totaling 78 yards.
Before Week 15, Vele had a stretch of four games in which he was targeted four or more times in each outing, catching 15 passes — including his only touchdown on the season against Kansas City.
He’s only been targeted five times in the red zone but gets a good matchup against an L.A. defense that has been burned by slot receivers in 2024, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to that WR position.
The Bolts have also given up 16 touchdowns to receivers, which is tied for fifth most.
What’s more, Los Angeles plays zone coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, and Vele’s 6-foot-5 frame ranks as Denver’s top pass-catching target against zone schemes at PFF.
Chargers anytime touchdown pick
Kimani Vidal anytime touchdown
+280 at FanDuel
Kimani Vidal has climbed the Chargers’ depth chart since J.K. Dobbins went down, becoming the third-down RB for Los Angeles.
And with RB1 Gus Edwards struggling to gain traction — and facing a stout run stop unit from Denver — Vidal could see more involvement on Thursday night.
He received 67% of the snap share in last weekend’s one-sided loss to Tampa Bay, with the Chargers abandoning the run and going pass-heavy in order to catch up. Vidal finished with three carries for nine yards and caught two of three targets for 13 yards receiving.
Thursday’s game will find L.A. in plenty of third-down situations, and I expect the Bolts to go pass-heavy, considering how listless the run game has been in recent weeks.
The rookie had success against the Broncos back in Week 6. With Edwards out for that first meeting with Denver, Vidal picked up 11 yards on four carries but caught two balls for 40 yards, including a 38-yard touchdown reception on a wheel route up the right sideline.
The Broncos run a lot of man coverage, which means Vidal will have linebackers on him. While Justin Herbert struggles against man schemes, Vidal is the Bolts' second-best receiving option against man, according to his PFF ratings.
Denver has allowed only five rushing touchdowns to running backs this season — third fewest — but has given up five receiving TDs to the position, which is third most.
Vidal is a sneaky option at +280 to score a touchdown anytime, considering he could get the lion’s share of snaps at running back again.
Not intended for use in MA.
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