Broncos vs Chargers Predictions and Picks for TNF Week 16

The Denver Broncos will host the Los Angeles Chargers in a crucial AFC West contest at SoFi Stadium for this edition of Thursday Night Football.

These division rivals are jockeying for position in the playoff pecking order, and my Broncos vs. Chargers predictions expect Denver’s defense to get the best of Justin Herbert. 

I key on that battle with my best NFL picks for December 19.

Broncos vs Chargers TNF prediction

My best bet
Justin Herbert interception: Yes (+112 at FanDuel)

My analysis
There were 92 days between interceptions from Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who witnessed his clean sheet snapped in last week’s loss to Tampa Bay.

Herbert, who only has two interceptions on the season, could be the victim of regression, injury, and a really dangerous defense on Thursday night.

The Broncos pose a serious threat to Herbert & Co., entering Week 16 as the top-rated defense in EPA allowed per dropback — an advanced metric powered by Denver’s 14 interceptions on the year (fourth most).

Vance Joseph’s pass defense utilizes one of the highest rates of man coverage in the NFL, which is a scheme Herbert has trouble against. 

The Bolts’ QB ranks 29th in completion percentage vs. man coverage (49.6%), 12th in accuracy rate against man, and boasts a passer rating of just 85.4 against man-to-man (23rd) compared to 112.6 vs. zone coverage.

Adding fuel to those fires is an aggressive pass rush from the Broncos, who sit second in pressure rate per dropback and sixth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate, which has led to a league-best 49 sacks. 

Herbert’s passing grades hit the skid when under duress, and he’s been sacked 38 times in 2024 — sixth most. Los Angeles will lean hard on him to keep the chains moving Thursday, with the running game losing steam and facing a stingy run-stop unit on defense.

Prepare for plenty of third-and-long situations for L.A., which is a specialty of this Denver defense. The Broncos have forced the most third-down attempts while shutting down foes on 36.63% of those snaps.

Third-down conversions have been spotty for Hebert, whose completion rate slides to 57.1% on third-down passes, and he watches his passer rating dwindle to 86.0 in those key spots (one of his two INTs came on third down). Advanced QB stats rank Hebert 27th in EPA + CPOE on third down among qualified quarterbacks.

If all those numbers aren’t enough to take a swing at a Herbert INT, consider the QB is playing through a high ankle sprain on this short turnaround. His mobility in the pocket will be tested and the Broncos’ pass pressure will force Herbert into hurried throws, putting the ball into bad spots against this ball-hawking secondary.

Player projections for Week 16 have an interception from Herbert as high as its been all season. Those INT forecasts range from 0.4 to 0.7, with my number coming out to 0.53, which should have the “Yes” option priced around -113. However, we’re getting +112 on this INT prop at FanDuel Sportsbooks while other shops sit at EVEN money.

Broncos vs Chargers TNF same-game parlay

Justin Herbert 200+ passing yards

Under 42.5 points

Chargers moneyline

+366 at FanDuel

With the Bolts' ground game struggling and facing a stingy run-stop unit, it’s all on Herbert to make things happen for L.A.

We have two of the top defenses in the land butting heads in what will be a playoff-like atmosphere. The Broncos also struggled to score on the road, averaging more than a touchdown less as visitors.

The Chargers are better than last week’s flop, which saw them succumb to a tough situational spot. I believe they can grind out a win at home in primetime.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Broncos vs Chargers odds

Broncos vs Chargers live odds

Broncos vs Chargers opening odds

• Spread: Denver +3 | Los Angeles -3
• Moneyline: Denver +130 | Los Angeles -155
• Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

Broncos vs Chargers spread and Over/Under analysis

• Los Angeles opened as a 3-point favorite and had stayed there for most of the week. However, injury concerns have slimmed L.A. to -2.5 on Wednesday.
• As for the total, it opened at 42.5 points and has remained there as of this writing. Some books have come down to 42 points.
• According to Covers Consensus, 52% of picks are laying the short spread with the home favorite, while 62% of total picks are banking on the Over this Thursday night.

Broncos vs Chargers betting trend to know

The Los Angeles Chargers are 7-15 Over/Under in divisional games since 2021 (68% Unders), including a 2-8 O/U count against the AFC West since 2023. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Chargers.

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