Thursday Night Football features an AFC West showdown between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium to start Week 16.
My favorite Justin Herbert odds and Broncos vs. Chargers predictions call for the L.A. quarterback to continue struggling to attack through the air on Thursday, December 19.
Justin Herbert TNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Justin Herbert Under 225.5 passing yards
(-113 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Justin Herbert Under 225.5 passing yards
Justin Herbert 175+ passing yards
Kimani Vidal Over 10.5 receiving yards
(+477 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Justin Herbert TNF prop pick
My best bet
Justin Herbert Under 225.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Los Angeles Chargers have rushed for just 265 yards (66.3 per game) with the seventh-lowest rush success rate in the past four weeks, and it’s negatively impacted the passing attack and quarterback Justin Herbert’s numbers.
L.A. has dropped to the eighth-lowest EPA per dropback, while Herbert has thrown for an average of just 193.3 yards per game during the four-week stretch. For comparison, the Bolts were a middling 16th in EPA per dropback, and Herbert averaged 218.6 passing yards per game through the first 11 weeks.
Add the L.A. QB nursing an ankle injury and being a limited participant in Tuesday’s practice to the daunting matchup against the uber-aggressive Denver Broncos defense, and this isn’t a favorable spot for the Chargers offense.
Denver has allowed the lowest EPA per dropback and ranks second in pressure rate (28.2%) while blitzing at a 30.7% clip. The Broncos also have the third-highest PFF coverage grade, rank sixth in pass-rush win rate, and have surrendered the second-lowest yards per passing attempt (6.48).
Additionally, I expect Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II to, at the minimum, partially shadow Chargers No. 1 wide receiver Ladd McConkey, which is another hit to the L.A. passing attack. There’s a huge dropoff in the Chargers receiver corps behind McConkey, and Surtain paces NFL corners in PFF's coverage grade.
If Denver opts to keep Surtain in perimeter coverage when McConkey's in the slot, Chargers wideouts Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer will have difficulty creating separation, and the Broncos can then allocate more attention to covering McConkey anyway. Surtain turns this into a lose-lose scenario for the Bolts, but something our NFL picks can take advantage of.
Justin Herbert TNF same-game parlay
Justin Herbert Under 225.5 passing yards
Justin Herbert 175+ passing yards
Kimani Vidal Over 10.5 receiving yards
We’re landing a huge middling opportunity to boost the odds of this SGP, and Herbert has thrown for 175+ yards in nine of the past 11 games. I’m also anticipating the Chargers to lean on short and intermediate passes to mitigate the struggling rushing attack, which positions Herbert to top this benchmark against Denver.
Turning to Chargers running back Kimani Vidal, he played 67% of the offensive snaps in Week 15 to lead the L.A. backfield and hauled in two of his three targets for 13 yards. The Broncos have also allowed the fourth-most receptions (74) and 10th-highest catch percentage to opposing running backs this season, so the matchup checks out.
Additionally, Vidal was a capable receiving option out of the backfield with 92 receptions for 700 yards during his four-year collegiate career at Troy.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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