Steelers vs. Browns Predictions, Picks & Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 12

NFL Week 12 starts at 8:15 p.m. ET tonight with the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers heading to Huntington Bank Field for  showdown with the basement-dwelling Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football.

My top Steelers vs. Browns predictions expect the Black & Gold to improve to 9-2 and wide receiver George Pickens to have another big game.

Steelers vs Browns prediction for Thursday Night Football

My best bet
George Pickens Over 56.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)

My analysis

The Pittsburgh Steelers turning to quarterback Russell Wilson has allowed wide receiver George Pickens to morph into the go-to weapon envisioned when the organization called his name in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft.

Pickens has caught 22 of 33 targets for 365 yards through four games with Wilson behind center, and the go-to receiver has been targeted on a monster 26.2% of his routes over the four game stretch. He’s also cleared this modest 56.5 receiving yards total in each of the past four games — and seven of 10 for the season. Last week's eight receptions and 12 targets were also season-high marks.

The Cleveland Browns haven’t exactly been an intimidating defense against the pass, either.

They’ve allowed the second-highest yards per target (9.09) to opposing wide receivers this season, and the mark has soared to 11.21 since their own quarterback switch to Jameis Winston. Additionally, five wideouts have topped this total across the past three games against the Brownies, and 15 wide receivers have 55 or more receiving yards against them for the year.

Cleveland also ranks 31st in PFF coverage grade, so this is a solid set-up given Pickens’ target share.

Finally, while I’m anticipating both Cleveland cornerbacks Denzel Ward (ribs, ankle) and Greg Newsome II (shoulder) to play, both have been limited in practice to start the week and missed time during Sunday’s 35-14 loss to the New Orleans Saints.

Steelers vs Browns TNF same-game parlay

George Pickens Over 56.5 receiving yards

Steelers moneyline

Darnell Washington Over 11.5 receiving yards

+401 at FanDuel

I believe we’re landing an incredibly fair number on the Steelers. In addition to the noted Browns injuries, they also have multiple offensive linemen banged-up and already ruled out, and star defensive lineman Myles Garrett has been playing hurt for the bulk of the season. 

The Steelers are better on both sides of the ball in terms of EPA per play and PFF grade, and this total is shrinking due to a blistering weather forecast calling for brisk winds and potential wintry conditions. In what's looking like a low-scoring game, I'm backing the better defense, better head coach, and more experienced quarterback.

Turning to Steelers tight end Darnell Washington, he’s been a sneaky contributor in the passing game as the season has progressed. While primarily a blocker, he’s hauled in 12 of 17 targets for 158 yards in the past seven games and recorded 30 or more receiving yards four times.

He’s also caught a pass in each of those seven contests, and in addition to Cleveland’s noted shortcomings against the pass, the Browns have been carved up by secondary tight ends through the air all year. Saints tight ends Taysom Hill, Foster Moreau, and Juwan Johnson went off to the tune of 14 receptions for 130 yards vs. this unit last week.

Finally, it’s also worth noting that this same-game parlay climbs to +513 odds if opting to take the Steelers -3.5 spread instead of the moneyline. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Steelers vs Browns odds

Steelers vs Browns live odds

Steelers vs Browns opening odds

• Spread: Pittsburgh -3.5 | Cleveland +3.5
• Moneyline: Pittsburgh -188 | Cleveland +158
• Over/Under: Over 41.5 | Under 41.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

Steelers vs Browns spread and Over/Under analysis

• This spread has returned to the lookahead Pittsburgh -3.5 at FanDuel. The shop tested both Steelers -3 and -4.5, but neither lasted. I think it’s a fair margin, and as discussed, I like the favorite.
• Still, I respect why there was action on the Browns. It’s a good spot for Cleveland at home against a division rival in potentially tough conditions. And, Pittsburgh is also in a potential letdown scenario following the win over the Baltimore Ravens last week.
• This total has been in freefall from the look-ahead 41.5 number at FanDuel because of the weather forecast.
• It dipped as low as 35.5 on Tuesday before inching back up to 36.5 as of Wednesday morning. I don’t anticipate we’ll see a huge adjustment leading into kickoff. 

Steelers vs Browns betting trend to know

Pickens has 57 or more receiving yards in all four games with quarterback Russell Wilson behind center. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Browns.

Steelers vs Browns game info

Steelers vs Browns latest injuries

Steelers vs Browns weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

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