Week 12 in the NFL kicks off with a clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football. This total has plummeted to 35.5 due to messy weather in the forecast and my Steelers vs. Browns props are factoring that in for this NFC North battle.
I'm betting on downfield throws to be tricky for Jameis Winston while backing Najee Harris to have a busy game on the ground in my NFL player props for tonight's game.
Steelers vs Browns TNF props
Winston longest completion Under 31.5 yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Harris Over 64.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)- Chubb Under 53.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Steelers vs Browns prop bets for TNF
Prop bet #1: Jameis Winston longest completion Under 31.5 yards
Jameis Winston will make his fourth consecutive start for the Cleveland Browns, and while he has a strong arm, this weather could affect his deep throws. The temperature is expected to be just above freezing, with a strong chance of showers that could turn into a wintry mix, but the biggest impact could be the wind off Lake Erie, with breezes projected to be in the 20 mph range.
It won't help that the Pittsburgh Steelers are seventh in the NFL in defensive dropback EPA while limiting opposing QBs to 6.4 yards per pass attempt.
In addition, Cleveland's offensive line allows pressure at the highest rate in the league, and LT Jedrick Wills is questionable with a knee injury, while right tackle Dawand Jones broke his leg last week. Going up against T.J. Watt and a fierce Steelers pass rush, Winston might not have time to throw deep even if the wind dies down.
Prop bet #2: Najee Harris Over 64.5 rushing yards
Najee Harris was limited to 63 yards on 18 carries against a tough Ravens run defense last week. However, he had rushed for 100+ yards in three of his previous four contests and should get plenty of carries in a cold-weather game.
The Browns are 25th in the league in defensive rush EPA and have really missed top linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who's been on the IR since suffering a scary neck injury in Week 8.
With the Browns allowing 131.7 yards per game on the ground and ranking 27th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.8), back Harris to go Over this number on Thursday.
Prop bet #3: Nick Chubb Under 53.5 rushing yards
The Browns might not be able to throw downfield due to the chaotic wind. That said, even if they employ a run-heavy gameplan, I'm not confident in Nick Chubb going Over 53.5 rushing yards against a Steelers defense that ranks eighth in defensive rush EPA and holds opposing running backs to just 3.9 yards per carry.
Chubb has yet to surpass that number in four games, and he doesn't look anywhere near 100% since coming back from a torn ACL and MCL.
That was the same knee that suffered a brutal injury in college, and it's fair to wonder if Chubb will ever be as explosive as he used to be. This is a guy that led the NFL with +1,312 rushing yards over expected between 2018 and 2023 but has -18 yards over expected on 53 carries this year.
Chubb was on the field for just 30% of Cleveland's offensive snaps last week and had 11 carries, while backup Jerome Ford logged a 56% snap share with five carries. Chubb hasn't been able to find running room against the Saints, Chargers, and Ravens despite the downfield threat of Winston. With the Steelers able to load up the box and Chubb ceding carries to Ford, I'm fading him.
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