We’ve got an AFC North showdown on our hands for Thursday Night Football as the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Huntington Bank Field to face the Cleveland Browns.
The point total is set at 36.5, but the Over has hit in two of the last three head-to-head matchups between these teams. Pittsburgh has hit the Over in four of its last five overall, and Cleveland has gone Over in two of three.
Our best NFL anytime TD props for TNF focus on two deep-threat receivers thriving under new quarterbacks.
Best Steelers anytime touchdown pick
George Pickens anytime touchdown
+220 at FanDuel
The Pittsburgh Steelers started 4-2 with Justin Fields at the helm, and while he's certainly a dynamic scrambler, he wasn’t getting much done through the air. Fields threw for just 1,106 yards, five TDs, and a pick through six games, averaging 184 yards and 0.8 TD passes per contest — not exactly great numbers for his receivers.
Russell Wilson has started Pittsburgh’s last four games and has led the team to a perfect 4-0 record. In those four weeks., Wilson has gone 73 of 121 for 942 yards with six TDs and two picks. He’s averaged 235.5 yards and 1.5 TDs per game and thrown the ball nearly four more times per contest.
Unsurprisingly, the Steelers’ top wideout has thrived with Wilson under center. In six games played with Fields, George Pickens went for 26/363/0 on 44 targets. With Wilson, those numbers have ballooned to 22/365/2 on 33 targets in just four games.
Wilson is much more apt to air it out, which works well for Pickens, who led the NFL in yards per reception at 18.1 last season. With Wilson at QB, Pickens’ yards per reception has jumped from 13.9 to 16.5.
The Cleveland Browns have allowed three TDs of 60+ yards over their last two games. They’ve allowed a TD of 40+ yards in four of their last six, so Pickens’ big-play ability should help him find the end zone in this prime-time matchup.
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Best Browns anytime touchdown pick
Jerry Jeudy anytime touchdown
+300 at FanDuel
Different teams, same story. Though Cleveland isn’t doing much winning, the change at QB has been a boon for the team’s top receiver.
Deshaun Watson attempted 199 passes and threw for 1,020 yards, five TDs, and three INTs in six games. That’s an average of 170 passing yards on 33.2 attempts and less than a TD per game. Through just three games, Jameis Winston has attempted 133 passes and thrown for 964 yards, six TDs, and three INTs.
Winston has averaged 321.3 passing yards on 44.3 attempts and tossed two TDs per tilt since taking over, and Jerry Jeudy has been the primary beneficiary.
Over the first six games of the season, Jeudy posted a 21/266/1 line on 42 targets, averaging out to 3.5 receptions and 44.3 yards on seven targets a game. Over the last three, Jeudy has erupted for 18/294/1 on 30 targets. That’s good for 6/98 on 10 targets per — a monster difference.
Jeudy went off for a season-best 6/142/1 against the Saints in his last game, finding the end zone on an 89-yard TD reception.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been strong, allowing the second-fewest points per game. While the Steelers have allowed the fourth-fewest rush yards, they've been more middling against the pass, surrendering the 14th-most air yards, so Winston will need to open it up.
We can count on plenty of pass attempts from Winston and some deep balls for his favorite target. I’m betting on Jeudy hitting paydirt tonight.
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