Lincoln Financial Field will play host to an NFC East showdown between the Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football.
Philly has rolled off five consecutive wins following its Week 6 bye, and my top NFL picks for the Jayden Daniels odds expect the Eagles defense to hold the rookie quarterback in check Thursday, November 14.
Make sure to also check out our Commanders vs. Eagles predictions and TNF props before kickoff!
Jayden Daniels TNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Under 226.5 passing yards
(-113 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Under 226.5 passing yards
Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
175+ passing yards
(+301 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Jayden Daniels TNF prop pick
My best bet
Under 226.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The blueprint for holding Washington Commanders rookie Jayden Daniels in check was just put on full display in Week 10 by the Pittsburgh Steelers. He threw for only 202 yards and completed just 17 of 34 passes for a pedestrian 5.7 yards per attempt, which was his lowest mark during a full game this season.
Daniels was also sacked three times, rushed three times for a mere five yards, and had his lowest NFL passer rating of the year. The Steelers held the Commanders to just seven passing first downs, too.
Sure, the Pittsburgh stop unit is among the league’s best, but the Philadelphia Eagles are right there, too.
Philly has allowed the fewest yards per passing attempt and fourth-lowest completion percentage in the league, and the Eagles have also climbed to seventh in defensive DVOA and No. 1 in PFF defense grade during their dominant five-game winning streak following their Week 5 bye.
The Eagles have allowed the lowest EPA per play, success rate, EPA per dropback, and dropback success rate during the run, and that jumps off the page regardless of the ho-hum run of opponents.
Of course, I’m also expecting the Philly pass rush to have its say. Philadelphia is 10th in pass-rush win rate and second in pass rush grade per PFF, after all.
Finally, the New York Giants also held Daniels to just 209 passing yards at MetLife Stadium in Week 9, so there’s potential the league is beginning to figure out Daniels and the Washington offense, and not just the elite defenses.
Jayden Daniels TNF same-game parlay
Under 226.5 passing yards
Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
175+ passing yards
Daniels only has nine passing touchdowns through nine full games, and he’s only thrown for two scores three times. In addition to all the earlier Philly praise, the Eagles have also surrendered just eight passing touchdowns across nine games and have allowed the third-lowest touchdown conversion percentage in the red zone (42.3%).
I’d love to recommend the Over 1.5 passing touchdowns to skyrocket this same-game parlay to +1,061 odds, but the Commanders have a middling 54.5% touchdown conversion percentage in the red zone and 16 of their 24 scores have been of the rushing variety. Daniels also only has six red-zone touchdown passes.
So, my preferred SGP leg to boost the odds is creating a passing-yards middle. This is a large window, and Daniels has thrown for 175 or more passing yards in all nine of his full games this season.
Finally, if interested in opting to go with a smaller middle window to grab longer odds, switching to Daniels 200+ passing yards is priced at +606.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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