Two of the worst teams in the Big Ten go toe-to-toe on Friday night at Spartan Stadium when Purdue heads to East Lansing to take on Michigan State.
Between the Boilermakers' poor offensive play and the Spartans' respectable defense, I expect few points to be scored in my Purdue vs. Michigan State predictions and college football picks for Friday, November 22.
Purdue vs Michigan State prediction
My best bet
Under 47.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
While I don’t trust the Purdue Boilermakers to win this game, the Michigan State Spartans covering the 13.5-point spread is a tough bet to make. I just don’t know if the Spartans can score enough to win that big, but I do think their defense can have a big performance under the Friday night lights.
For as bad as Michigan State has been — 91st in SP+ — its defense has had some bright moments and ranks 50th in SP+ this season. Against Power Four opponents, it gave up 24 or fewer points to Boston College, Iowa, and Michigan.
While none of those teams' offenses can be considered consistently capable, they’re much better than what Purdue is throwing on the field. The Boilermakers are 105th in SP+ on offense — Boston College, Iowa, and Michigan are all Top 90.
It’s gotten so bad for the Boilermakers that head coach Ryan Walters, a defensive coordinator by trade, has even been calling the offensive plays for Purdue at times. No matter who’s calling the plays or playing under center, the Boilermakers have the same result.
Purdue is ranked 129th out of 134 in points per game this season (17.2) and has scored 10 points or fewer in six of nine games against FBS teams. It’s an offense that’s 98th in EPA per rush and 121st in EPA per dropback.
And it’s not as if Michigan State’s going to hit this Over on its own. The Spartans are worse on offense than Purdue, according to SP+ (117th), and are only scoring slightly more points per game (19.4).
Obviously, Purdue’s defense is pretty terrible, but Michigan State has only scored more than 19 points in three of its 10 games this year. Plus, the Spartans want to run the football because they’re more effective on the ground, which is good for the Under.
Purdue vs Michigan State same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 47.5
Nick Marsh Over 49.5 receiving yards
Nathan Carter anytime touchdown
Points are going to be hard to come by in this game, but Michigan State does have a few players on offense that will likely be playing on Sundays in the future. Chief among them is true freshman Nick Marsh.
Marsh leads the team in yards from scrimmage (613) and has gone Over 49.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games. He’s also Top 60 nationally in yards per route run (2.45) and will be a tough cover for Purdue.
He’s not alone on this MSU offense, either. Running back Nathan Carter leads the team in touchdowns (4) and has scored in three of his last four games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Purdue vs Michigan State odds
Purdue vs Michigan State live odds
Purdue vs Michigan State opening odds
- Purdue vs. Michigan State spread: Michigan State -13.5
- Purdue vs. Michigan State moneyline: Purdue +400, Michigan State -550
- Purdue vs. Michigan State Over/Under: 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Purdue vs Michigan State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Michigan State opened between a 13 and 13.5-point favorite with little movement at most sportsbooks.
- While the Spartans are just 4-6 ATS this season, the Boilermakers are the worst team in the country ATS at 2-8.
- The Over/Under opened as high as 49.5 and as low as 47.5, with most books settling in at 47.5.
- Michigan State is 5-5 betting the Over this season, while Purdue is 6-4.
Purdue vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Michigan State has cashed the Under in four of its last six games at home (+1.80 units / 27% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Purdue vs Michigan State.
Purdue vs Michigan State game info
| Location: | Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI |
| Date: | Friday, 11-22, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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