Our field of potential Playoff teams is down to 15. Tuesday night’s rankings reveal from the selection committee gave us a clearer picture than ever of the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff bracket.
Committee chair Warde Manuel specifically said the committee will not shift the order among teams not playing in conference championship games, which makes it clear the cutoff to hope to make the Playoff as an at-large team is No. 11 Alabama.
2025 College Football Playoff bracket predictions
We no longer need to sort through a dozen possible one- or two-loss teams to ponder which ones the committee would favor. If the committee has decided on its ordering of South Carolina, Mississippi, Miami, and Alabama, then no further debate is needed among them. At most, Alabama is in.
But this projection does not expect even the Tide to make the Playoff following an upset in the ACC championship game this weekend.
2025 CFP Bracket analysis
Let’s focus on the differences between this projection and the committee’s rankings. In both instances, it is presumed that No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Texas, and No. 10 Boise State will win their conference championships, at the expense of No. 3 Penn State, No. 5 Georgia, and No. 20 UNLV, respectively.
That loss will put Penn State on rather even footing with No. 6 Ohio State. Both will have two losses, each including a defeat to the Ducks. The Buckeyes beat the Nittany Lions, though, doing so in Happy Valley. There is a bounty of logic to elevating Ohio State ahead of Penn State at that point, particularly given how the Playoff committee ordered South Carolina behind both Mississippi and Alabama, comparable teams it lost to head-to-head.
Knocking Georgia down to No. 10 may seem extreme after a conference championship loss to the No. 2 team in the country, but it is done in some part as an attempt to avoid a regular-season rematch. The selection committee has said it will not factor those concerns into its rankings, but it would be natural and preferable to avoid a Tennessee vs. Georgia game in the first round of the Playoff.
Let's be clear, today's value play was not on Georgia.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 3, 2024
If you go 2-of-7 on do-or-die 2-point conversions against Georgia Tech, you are no longer a national title contender, though @Covers_Caley disagrees. Your offense is too flawed. https://t.co/gqTApXfcHI pic.twitter.com/oZKCiSTx7J
The remaining debate comes down to the No. 11 seed. If No. 17 Clemson upsets No. 8 SMU, who should get in between 9-3 Alabama and 11-2 SMU?
Public opinion seems to have veered toward the Tide. At the least, public cynicism certainly has veered toward the Tide, expecting the committee to side with the SEC powerhouse over the Power Four newcomer.
It is a strong sign the cynicism has veered too far when yours truly is arguing it has gone off the rails.
The odds of Alabama making the Playoff have plummeted in the last day.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 3, 2024
And I don't get it.
If Clemson upsets SMU, the committee needs to leave Alabama out of the College Football Playoff.
Do you really want to live in a world where Lane Kiffin was right?? pic.twitter.com/cp0dBUE7Ai
Consider 2022. Unbeaten TCU was No. 3 in the committee rankings entering conference championship weekend, 11-1 Ohio State looming at No. 5 and 10-2 Alabama at No. 6. The Horned Frogs lost in the Big 12 title game while the Buckeyes and the Tide remained behind them. Alabama was left out of the Playoff.
If SMU loses to a Top-20 team this weekend, particularly if the game is as close as the 2.5-point spread expects it to be, it should remain ahead of Alabama. The Mustangs’ two losses will have been to Clemson and No. 18 BYU, while the Tide’s three losses include falls to 6-6 Vanderbilt and 6-6 Oklahoma.
The @Covers Projected Playoff Bracket ...
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 1, 2024
I am suggesting Clemson beats SMU.
You can then debate Clemson and Boise State for the 3 and 4 seeds, but the more important question is ...
Who gets the No. 11? SMU, Alabama or South Carolina? pic.twitter.com/4stS4jjqwU
Week 15 games that should impact Playoff predictions
UNLV vs. Boise State
At the end of October, Boise State was a 4-point favorite at UNLV. Now, here we are, with the Broncos as 4-point favorites at home. Take that as an emphasis of how much the Rebels have improved as the season has gone along, with the laughable Matthew Sluka drama now a distant memory.
UNLV limited Heisman-hopeful Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty to 3.9 yards per carry that Friday night in Las Vegas. Even more notably, Jeanty’s longest rush among 33 carries was for 16 yards.
The Rebels defense ranks No. 14 in expected points added (EPA) per rush against, according to cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com, and No. 8 in defensive success rate against the rush. That defense was enough in October. It was a special teams gaffe that cost UNLV in a 29-24 loss.
If the Rebels avoid such a mistake on Friday night, they could find a Playoff bid.
Iowa State vs. Arizona State
One of these two will leapfrog No. 12 Miami to reach the Playoff as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. If the Hurricanes want to complain about that, they should have considered not losing two of their last three games.
No. 15 Arizona State might be the hottest team in the country, going 7-1 both outright and against the spread since October 1, including two outright wins as underdogs. That surge explains how the Sun Devils are favored, and they just may have the two best units on the field this weekend.
No. 16 Iowa State relies on explosive rushes for a notable amount of offensive output, something Arizona State limits. On the other side of the ball, near-perfect balance makes the Sun Devils’ offense a worrying one.
Clemson vs. SMU
The third game this weekend that could see a team play its way into the Playoff, the perennial ACC powerhouse is an unexpected underdog in the conference championship game. Statistically, SMU has been the better team all season. That cannot be argued.
What can be argued is that the Mustangs have not played worthwhile competition. Adding SMU, Stanford, and Cal to the ACC docket created lopsided schedules, and that worked out in the Mustangs’ favor, facing not only both of the other ACC newcomers but also Florida State and Virginia.
In the last two months, SMU has faced just one team rated within a touchdown of Clemson by the latest SP+ numbers, beating Louisville 34-27 on Oct. 5. All season, it has faced just one defense comparable to Clemson’s, slipping by Duke 28-27 in overtime on Oct. 26.
SMU could thank Duke’s middling offense for that win. Clemson’s does not grant that margin for error.
How the 2025 CFP works
The five highest-ranked conference champions will each get an automatic berth. They will be joined by the next seven highest-ranked teams in the Playoff selection committee’s rankings following conference championship weekend. The four highest-ranked of those conference champions will receive first-round byes into the quarterfinals of the Playoffs.
Aside from possibly elevating a conference champion into the top four, the seeding will be dictated entirely by the Playoff selection committee’s rankings, with the final rankings coming on Sunday, December 8.
Seeds 5 through 12 will meet in the first round, with seeds 5 through 8 hosting those games on or near their respective campuses.
Despite all the controversy of years past, the selection criteria remain unchanged. While that seems to be a shifting definition every year, the most constant thing to always remember has been impressive wins matter more than humbling losses.
Why the College Football Playoff is expanding
Clamor to expand the Playoff began even before we saw the first display of the four-team format in 2014. The four-team format had its perks, namely that it was a step in the direction of including more of the national college football landscape. However, not even all of the Power Five conferences could fit their respective champions into that format.
Sure, that problem would have been fixed by the unfortunate demise of the Pac-12, but that still would have left out the 62 teams in the Group of Five, not to mention the possible complicating factors of Notre Dame, Oregon State, and Washington State.
Giving all 134 college football teams a genuine chance at the national championship should have always been part of the format, and it is a welcomed return to what makes this sport great. Is it likely that the MAC champion will crack the field? No, but if Miami (OH) or Northern Illinois goes to Notre Dame this year and springs an upset on its way to a 13-0 season, then it probably would be included in the 12-team format as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. And guess what, the Huskies briefly turned that hypothetical into a possibility.
Furthermore, the selection committee excluding the No. 12 team in the country — a 10-2 Oklahoma last year, a 10-2 Washington in 2022, and an 11-2 Pittsburgh in 2021 — will upset far fewer people than excluding the No. 5 team in the country from the title hunt, particularly after that team was a 13-0 ACC champion Florida State last year.
The new bracket will affect NCAAF National Championship odds
The expanded field distinctly impacts college football National Championship odds. More teams will reach college bowl game odds time with a chance at glory, but teams will need even more depth to survive this season.
Even if a team enjoys a first-round bye, playing three Top-10 quality teams in three straight weeks will exact a toll. Recruiting depth has always mattered, but it may matter now more than ever.
See our updated 2025 bracket for a look at how the seeding will work.
Important dates for the 2025 College Football Playoff
| Round | Dates | Matchup(s) |
|---|---|---|
| First round | December 20-21 | No. 12 at No. 5 No. 9 at No. 8 No. 11 at No. 6 No. 10 at No. 7 |
| Quarterfinals | December 31-January 1 | No. 4 vs. winner of No. 12 vs. No. 5 No. 1 vs. winner of No. 9 vs. No. 8 No. 3 vs winner of No. 11 vs. No. 6 No. 2 vs winner of No. 10 vs No. 7 |
| Semifinal 1 | January 9 | Capital One Orange Bowl |
| Semifinal 2 | January 10 | Goodyear Cotton Bowl |
| Championship | January 20 | CFP National Championship Game |
