The biggest questions have been answered. The College Football Playoff selection committee sorted out the morass of two-loss SEC teams... for the time being. Tuesday night’s rankings left Tennessee on the outside looking in, something the Volunteers will not get a chance to change.
That is not to say Tennessee cannot make the first 12-team College Football Playoff bracket. If Josh Heupel & Co. beat UTEP and Vanderbilt as they should, then it would take just two upsets and/or committee overreactions to push the Vols back into Playoff position.
But for now, we know what to expect. We can expect Tennessee to fall short despite beating Alabama this season.
2025 College Football Playoff bracket predictions
Predicting a bracket first requires predicting the champions of the Power Four conferences. It also mandates looking through the best of the Group of Five and deciphering which will not only win its conference but also outpace the other champions in the eyes of the selection committee.
Sorting through a dozen possible one- or two-loss teams and pondering which ones the committee would favor has always been the most difficult part of these projections and the subsequent college football picks. That is why this week’s rankings stand out as finally answering the biggest questions in this quandary.
1) Ohio State
2) Texas
3) Miami
4) Boise State
5) Oregon
6) Penn State
7) Notre Dame
8) Indiana
9) Alabama
10) Mississippi
11) Georgia
12) Colorado
2025 CFP Bracket analysis
The top two-thirds of this projection did not change this week. No. 2 Ohio State should still be favored in the Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis. Therefore, the Buckeyes end up with the overall No. 1 seed in this projection rather than Oregon despite the Ducks being ranked No. 1 in the current polls.
Slotting Boise State at No. 4 looks even more certain now that BYU lost. The Cougars are now behind the Broncos in the committee’s eyes, and even if BYU holds onto the Big 12 title — these projections clearly side with Colorado — Boise State may enjoy the first-round bye.
Moving into the next grouping of interchangeable teams, the committee’s rankings forced these projections to change slightly from Sunday.
Fine, Georgia, you can be in the Playoff.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 17, 2024
What I project the 12-team Playoff will end up looking like. Only thing that changed was Tennessee in for BYU.
Dan Lanning vs. Deion Sanders, ii
Georgia at Notre Dame, ii
Sign me up. pic.twitter.com/9hi5HoEaMM
Moving Georgia to No. 11 and Mississippi into No. 10 stems from the committee’s ordering of them at No. 9 and No. 10, respectively. The committee made its opinion known on the order of Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee, and none has impressive enough opponents remaining to improve its standing.
The biggest remaining questions will be how far the loser in the SEC title game falls, be that Alabama, Texas, or Texas A&M, how far Texas would fall if losing in the regular-season finale at College Station, and how far Indiana will fall if it loses at Ohio State this week.
Right now, the Longhorns are at No. 3, the Hoosiers are at No. 5, and the Tide are at No. 7. The first two should be high enough in the rankings to stay in the Playoff even with those hypothetical losses, certainly as long as they are competitive. Alabama, meanwhile, should not be overly penalized for losing in the SEC title game if that comes to be reality.
If there is any line to draw in the sand, let it be that one: No team in the top two-thirds of the Playoff field should be dropped out of the bracket for losing in a conference championship game. That is a precedent that needs to be avoided, and even the selection committee should have enough common sense to recognize that.
College Football 134 reacts to Week 12, debates the Playoff & previews Week 13 w/ some best bets.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 19, 2024
Who do you leave out of the SEC?
I expect Mississippi, but would like it to be Georgia.@Covers_Caley says Tennessee.
iTunes: https://t.co/CwUOvcK3sX
Spotify: https://t.co/nLNt2Axy4h pic.twitter.com/uXuMeF8tJG
Week 13 games that should impact Playoff predictions
Indiana vs. Ohio State
The week’s biggest news — much bigger than anything the committee announced weeks before its only meaningful poll is set in stone — came from an Ohio State practice. Buckeyes center Seth McLaughlin reportedly tore his Achilles in practice, further dooming Ohio State’s offensive line depth.
That may not matter too much this week. As good as Indiana’s defense is — No. 16 in expected points added per snap against — it does not boast a defensive line that should wreak havoc in McLaughlin’s absence.
Furthermore, this injury news did not impact the line, moving from -13 to -13.5 on Tuesday evening. If the Hoosiers can disrupt one additional Buckeyes’ possession because of McLaughlin’s injury, a two-touchdown spread could become difficult to cover.
Army vs. Notre Dame
Let’s be clear: the Irish should win this easily. They have an aggressive defense that ranks No. 2 in the country in defensive success rate.
Put “success rate” into layman’s terms: Opponents do not gain enough yards to stay out of second-and-long or third-and-long situations. In fact, Notre Dame holds opponents to that kind of success on just 34.4% of snaps.
Against a triple-option offense, even one finding some explosives like this version of Army is, that snap-by-snap skill will cripple the opposing attack.
All that said, if the Knights find a win here, then the Playoff picture gets very murky. Currently ranked No. 19, Army would have not only knocked out Notre Dame, but it would have set up the AAC as a challenger to the Big 12 for the fifth highest-ranked conference champion.
It is unlikely the Knights win, but if they do, they could be eliminating both the Irish and the Big 12 from the Playoff bracket.
BYU vs. Arizona State
The winner will be into the Big 12 championship game, as long as it can top Houston or Arizona, respectively, in two weeks.
What to watch for? BYU’s performance in scoring territory. The Cougars rank No. 8 in the country in quality possession rate, per cfb-graphs, but they often fail to end those quality possessions, scoring just 3.27 points on them, No. 96 in the country.
Arizona State’s defense struggles where it matters most, giving up 3.75 points per quality drive, No. 91 in the country.
To put a quip on that, when BYU’s offense reaches scoring territory, this could become a stoppable force against a moveable object. Which finds unusual success?
How the 2025 CFP works
The five highest-ranked conference champions will each get an automatic berth. They will be joined by the next seven highest-ranked teams in the Playoff selection committee’s rankings following conference championship weekend. The four highest-ranked of those conference champions will receive first-round byes into the quarterfinals of the Playoffs.
Aside from possibly elevating a conference champion into the top four, the seeding will be dictated entirely by the Playoff selection committee’s rankings, with the final rankings coming on Sunday, December 8.
Seeds 5 through 12 will meet in the first round, with seeds 5 through 8 hosting those games on or near their respective campuses.
Despite all the controversy of years past, the selection criteria remain unchanged. While that seems to be a shifting definition every year, the most constant thing to always remember has been impressive wins matter more than humbling losses.
Why the College Football Playoff is expanding
Clamor to expand the Playoff began even before we saw the first display of the four-team format in 2014. The four-team format had its perks, namely that it was a step in the direction of including more of the national college football landscape. However, not even all of the Power Five conferences could fit their respective champions into that format.
Sure, that problem would have been fixed by the unfortunate demise of the Pac-12, but that still would have left out the 62 teams in the Group of Five, not to mention the possible complicating factors of Notre Dame, Oregon State, and Washington State.
Giving all 134 college football teams a genuine chance at the national championship should have always been part of the format, and it is a welcomed return to what makes this sport great. Is it likely that the MAC champion will crack the field? No, but if Miami (OH) or Northern Illinois goes to Notre Dame this year and springs an upset on its way to a 13-0 season, then it probably would be included in the 12-team format as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. And guess what, the Huskies briefly turned that hypothetical into a possibility.
Furthermore, the selection committee excluding the No. 12 team in the country — a 10-2 Oklahoma last year, a 10-2 Washington in 2022, and an 11-2 Pittsburgh in 2021 — will upset far fewer people than excluding the No. 5 team in the country from the title hunt, particularly after that team was a 13-0 ACC champion Florida State last year.
The new bracket will affect NCAAF National Championship odds
The expanded field distinctly impacts college football National Championship odds. More teams will reach college bowl game odds time with a chance at glory, but teams will need even more depth to survive this season.
Even if a team enjoys a first-round bye, playing three Top-10 quality teams in three straight weeks will exact a toll. Recruiting depth has always mattered, but it may matter now more than ever.
See our updated 2025 bracket for a look at how the seeding will work.
Important dates for the 2025 College Football Playoff
| Round | Dates | Matchup(s) |
|---|---|---|
| First round | December 20-21 | No. 12 at No. 5 No. 9 at No. 8 No. 11 at No. 6 No. 10 at No. 7 |
| Quarterfinals | December 31-January 1 | No. 4 vs. winner of No. 12 vs. No. 5 No. 1 vs. winner of No. 9 vs. No. 8 No. 3 vs winner of No. 11 vs. No. 6 No. 2 vs winner of No. 10 vs No. 7 |
| Semifinal 1 | January 9 | Capital One Orange Bowl |
| Semifinal 2 | January 10 | Goodyear Cotton Bowl |
| Championship | January 20 | CFP National Championship Game |
