Chiefs vs Steelers Predictions and Picks for Christmas Day

Oddsmakers are calling for a close game in Pittsburgh in Week 17, but our NFL betting picks think it'll take a Christmas miracle for the Steelers to stop Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan ? Senior Betting Analyst
Dec 24, 2024 ? 17:45 ET ? 4 min read

NFL

Match starts: 14 hrs
PIT
51 %
KC
49 %
Read Analysis
Patrick Mahomes NFL Kansas City Chiefs
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.

The NFL stuffs our stockings with a Christmas Day clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17.

After playing with fire in close games for most of the season, Kansas City is starting to look like the defending Super Bowl champion in their past two outings. The Steelers, on the other hand, have lost two in a row and are coming back to earth after a 10-3 start to the schedule.

Here are my best Chiefs vs. Steelers predictions and NFL picks for Wednesday, December 25.

Chiefs vs Steelers predictions

My best bet
Chiefs moneyline (-149 at BetMGM)

My analysis

The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming back to earth faster than Santa Claus two minutes before dawn.

Pittsburgh’s surprise 10-3 start to the season has been tested by a daunting final stretch, leaving it to drag a two-game losing skid into Wednesday’s home date with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Everything is coming off the rails this month. A once-vaunted defense has been bullied in loss to Philadelphia and Baltimore, giving up 54 points on more than 800 total yards allowed.

What's worse is that the Eagles and Ravens dragged the Steelers defense for a collective 72 minutes of on-field ass-waxing. Not only is that a ton of time logged by the Pittsburgh stop unit, but it came against the two most physical offenses in the NFL.

That leaves the Steelers tenderized on another tight turnaround and now facing a methodical Chiefs offense, one that slowly moves the chains with one of the most efficient attacks in the NFL. Kansas City is second in time of possession and runs the slowest tempo in the land.

Compounding that crunch is a long list of ailments on the Pittsburgh defense. Following Saturday’s loss to the Ravens, top corner Joey Porter Jr. is questionable with a knee injury, which leaves the secondary potentially thin as CB Donte Jackson and safety DeShon Elliott missed Week 16. Starting DT Larry Ogunjobi also missed Saturday with a groin injury.

As for the Steelers' offense, that group is also hitting a snag.

Stud receiver George Pickens is questionable for Week 17 after missing the past three games with a groin injury, dragging down the production of quarterback Russell Wilson. The veteran QB was undergoing a resurgence in the Steel City, but he’s thrown for 6.2 yards per attempt over the last three outings — losing any deep-play threats.

Wilson faces an aggressive pass rush from K.C. defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, whose blitz-heavy schemes have generated the seventh-highest pressure rate in football. Wilson got a taste of Spags’ stop unit during his tenure in Denver, suffering 10 total sacks in his last three meetings with the Chiefs. An injury to Chiefs’ standout DL Chris Jones is one to watch for Wednesday.

Wilson not only sees his passing ratings at PFF take a tumble under duress, but he’s throwing into a Chiefs secondary that plays a high rate of man-to-man coverage. Wilson’s production also takes a dip versus man concepts, ranking 25th in completion rate and 22nd in accuracy against man-to-man.

Much like the bookies setting this spread below a field goal, I want to give the Steelers some respect at home. But I’m not convinced they can defeat the Chiefs given the trajectory of these two teams and matchup on Xmas Day. I’ll take Kansas City on the moneyline.

Chiefs vs Steelers same-game parlay

Chiefs moneyline

Under 42.5

Travis Kelce anytime TD

Kansas City keeps rounding into championship form with a win in Pittsburgh on Xmas Day against a dinged-up Steelers team in a short-week squeeze.

The Chiefs’ slow pace of play and K.C.’s defense getting the job done will keep scoring down in Week 17.

The Steelers have had troubles with TEs this season and Taylor’s tight end Travis Kelce delivers in the end zone on Wednesday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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More Chiefs vs Steelers picks from Covers


Chiefs vs Steelers odds

Chiefs vs Steelers live odds

Chiefs vs Steelers opening odds

  • Spread: Kansas City -2.5 | Pittsburgh +2.5
  • Moneyline: Kansas City -150 | Pittsburgh +125
  • Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Chiefs vs Steelers spread and Over/Under analysis

  • After Saturday’s games, the Chiefs opened as 2.5-point road favorites for the Xmas Day matchup in Pittsburgh.
  • We’re seeing some books up the juice on K.C. -2.5 and a field goal spread could show, depending on how Pittsburgh’s injury reports look later in the week.
  • The total hit the board at 42.5 points and is up to 43.5 at some books.
  • The Steelers’ defensive struggles have helped three of the past five games go Over the total while the Chiefs’ offense seems to be on the uptick.

Chiefs vs Steelers betting trend to know

Since 2018, Kansas City is 12-6 SU and 11-7 ATS (61%) as a road favorite of -5 or shorter. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Steelers.

Chiefs vs Steelers game info

Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Date: Sunday, 12-25-2024
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: Netflix

Chiefs vs Steelers latest injuries

Chiefs vs Steelers weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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