The Baltimore Ravens have consecutive convincing wins out of their Week 14 bye, and my Ravens vs. Texans predictions expect the good times to continue against the Houston Texans on December 25.
Find out why in my NFL picks for this Christmas clash being broadcast on Netflix.
Ravens vs Texans prediction
My best bet
Ravens -4 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Baltimore Ravens' offense is becoming a bigger matchup nightmare by the week, while the defense has sneakily been elite down the stretch.
Baltimore has surrendered the third-lowest EPA per play and lowest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks while allowing just 19.2 points per game since Week 11. For comparison, the Ravens allowed the sixth-highest EPA per play and fourth-highest YPA to QBs with 25.3 points against per game to start the year.
Often, there’s a lot of matchup-based noise with the small sample of NFL statistics, but I’m buying the improved Ravens defense because of the offseason loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald requiring an adjustment period for the Baltimore stop unit under Zach Orr.
Returning to the offense, Baltimore paces the NFL in yards per play, dropback EPA per play, and PFF offense grade while averaging the third-most points per game (30.1).
Statistically, Baltimore is the team to beat, and the Ravens are largely healthy on both sides of the ball. Additionally, the strength of the offense makes it tougher on opposing teams because they have to keep pace with the high-scoring Ravens.
I anticipate the Houston Texans showing up and being competitive on Wednesday, but I don’t expect them to score enough points to cover the number.
The Houston offense took a hit with wide receiver Tank Dell (knee) all but officially ruled out for the season and Stefon Diggs (knee) already on injured reserve. It leaves the Texans short on both reliable and game-breaking playmakers, which will make life even more difficult against the surging Baltimore defense.
Additionally, the Houston offensive line could struggle if the Texans have to take it to the air to keep pace. Houston ranks 22nd in PFF pass-block grade and 25th in pass-block win rate.
Simply put, this spread does not fully account for the improvements to the Baltimore defense.
Ravens vs Texans same-game parlay
Ravens team total Over 24.5 points
Texans team total Under 20.5 points
Nico Collins Under 91.5 receiving yards
The handicap for the first two legs of this SGP aligns with the best bet and offers longer odds than the +195 price of the spread and third leg of Houston wide receiver Nico Collins going Under 91.5 receiving yards.
With the Ravens defense turning the corner, this sets up as a tough matchup for the Houston offense and Collins. In theory, the loss of Dell could lead to an even larger target share of Collins, but I’m more convinced it will result in Baltimore being able to concentrate their coverage on limiting No. 12 in the passing attack.
Additionally, I think Houston will be committed to the running game for as long as possible in an attempt to keep the Baltimore offense off the field. And, the blueprint for holding Collins in check was just put on full display by the Chiefs in Week 16. Collins was held to just seven receptions for 60 receiving yards on 10 targets, and he’s now been limited to just 77 receiving yards across two games since the Week 14 bye.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Ravens vs Texans odds
Ravens vs Texans live odds
Ravens vs Texans opening odds
- Spread: Baltimore -1.5 (-110) | Houston +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Baltimore -120 | Houston +100
- Over/Under: Over 46 (-110) | Under 46 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Ravens vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread is moving in the Baltimore direction after reopening at Ravens -3 at BetMGM on Saturday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the action continuing to come in on the Baltimore side, either.
- For what it’s worth, BetMGM had lookahead lines available in June with Baltimore trading at -1.5.
- There has been a small early move to the Under in this game after reopening at 47.5 on Saturday at BetMGM. It aligns with the improved Baltimore defense.
- As noted, Baltimore has been an Over machine this season and on the road.
Ravens vs Texans betting trend to know
The Baltimore Ravens have covered the spread and won outright in five of their past six road games. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Texans.
Ravens vs Texans game info
| Location: | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-25, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Ravens vs Texans latest injuries
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