Two teams who suffered through disappointing ends to their respective seasons will have a chance to end on a high note Thursday as the Pittsburgh Panthers take on the Toledo Rockets in the GameAbove Sports Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit.
Between some injury questions and the defensive strength of the Rockets, I’m taking the Under in my Pittsburgh vs. Toledo predictions.
Read on below for my full analysis of the GameAbove Sports Bowl in my free college football picks for Thursday, December 26.
Pittsburgh vs Toledo prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 50.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Toledo Rockets have spent the entire season relying on its defense to win games. While the Rockets have been mediocre offensively, they’ve managed to hold opponents to 21.3 ppg while allowing just 5.0 yards per play.
The Rockets have even shown they can keep major-conference offenses in check when they need to. Toledo scored an impressive 41-17 win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs earlier this year — the game in which it was the biggest underdog of any contest it played this season.
That said, I’d normally be concerned that Toledo was biting off more than it can chew in an offense of the Pittsburgh Panthers caliber. The Panthers put up 34+ points against the Syracuse Orange, North Carolina Tar Heels, and West Virginia Mountaineers. Looking at Group of 5 competition, they blasted the Kent State Golden Flashes for 55 points earlier in the year.
But things changed with a head injury to Eli Holstein in a November 9 loss to the Virginia Cavaliers. That was the second game in a five-game losing streak to end the season for Pittsburgh, during which time the formerly explosive offense scored just 19.2 ppg.
Holstein later suffered an ankle injury, and it remains unclear if he’ll be able to play on Thursday. With backup quarterback Nate Yarnell transferring, Pittsburgh will have to go with walk-on David Lynch as the starter if Holstein is unavailable.
But even if Holstein can play, he could be far less than 100%, and the Pittsburgh offense looked uninspired down the stretch against better defenses even when they had their starting quarterback in the lineup. Narduzzi says he expects his team to be healthier for the GameAbove Sports Bowl, but I don’t see that making a huge difference against a solid Toledo defense.
The health of Holstein will be key for any spread or moneyline bets, but I think we can confidently play the total regardless of his status. I’m taking the Under.
Pittsburgh vs Toledo same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 50.5
Toledo +7.5
I love the Under in this game, as I’m not convinced either offense will have the firepower to put up many points. And if this is going to be a lower-scoring game, I think it makes a lot of sense to also take Toledo to cover in our same-game parlay.
The reason I like the Rockets here is twofold. First, I think there’s every chance Toledo can cover this game simply by keeping it close even if Pittsburgh has Holstein and some other key contributors in the lineup on Thursday.
But there’s also the possibility that Pittsburgh is at less than their best, in which case Toledo has every chance to win this game outright. Combine those possibilities and we’re getting a great value for our SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Pittsburgh vs Toledo odds
Pittsburgh vs Toledo live odds
Pittsburgh vs Toledo opening odds
- Pittsburgh vs. Toledo spread: Toledo +7.5
- Pittsburgh vs. Toledo moneyline: Pittsburgh -270, Toledo +220
- Pittsburgh vs. Toledo Over/Under: 50.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Pittsburgh vs Toledo spread and Over/Under analysis
- Pittsburgh is 7-5 against the spread this year, while Toledo went 5-7 ATS on the season.
- Both teams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games heading into the GameAbove Sports Bowl.
- The Under has the 7-5 advantage when the Panthers have played this year, with the Over holding the 7-5 edge in the Rockets’ games.
- Pittsburgh is averaging a total of 58.6 ppg on the year, with Toledo playing to an average total of 48.0 points.
Pittsburgh vs Toledo betting trend to know
The Under is 3-0 in Toledo’s last three games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Pittsburgh vs Toledo.
Pittsburgh vs Toledo game info
| Location: | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-26-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Pittsburgh vs Toledo latest injuries
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Pittsburgh vs Toledo weather
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