Oregon State and Nebraska are set to battle in the Diamond Head Classic championship game on Christmas night at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Christmas in Hawai'i isn't too bad, but it's even better when you can win some hardware in the process, and that's what both teams will be looking to do.
This will be just the fourth meeting in school history for the two teams, with Nebraska getting the better of these games recently. Our Oregon State vs. Nebraska predictions expect that to continue.
Read on for my college basketball picks for tonight.
Oregon State vs Nebraska prediction
My best bet
Nebraska -4 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
Like it was for Nebraska in the semifinal against Hawaii, the Cornhuskers' most significant advantage is the extra possessions they can force. That's why I'm landing on Nebraska to take care of business while covering the spread.
Oregon State has a significant turnover issue, ranking near the bottom of the sport with a turnover rate in the bottom 20th percentile. That's problematic in any game among evenly matched sides, but it's a more significant issue when facing a team that forces turnovers at a Top-50 rate like Nebraska.
Nebraska's spacing has enabled it to get a ton of production off rebounds and kickoff shots. The Beavers have allowed 1.09 points per possession on plays categorized as "rebound and scramble" plays, well above the national average.
While Oregon State has good rebounding numbers, they may be more flawed than advertised, given that they've yet to face any good rebounding teams.
The more considerable advantages here are on the defensive side of the ball, though. Beyond the turnover issues, Nebraska can slow down Oregon State's primary offensive sets.
Michael Rataj is one of Oregon State's primary offensive valves. He's the leading scorer, averaging just over 16 points per game, but what's more important to this matchup is how he scores.
Most of it comes from a direct post-up or a cut to the basket in a ball screen. Unfortunately for the Beavers, Nebraska's size has assisted it in being good at defending both — particularly post-ups.
Nebraska has been one of the best teams in the country at defending post-up sets, allowing just .78 points per possession when seeing them.
Whether it's forcing turnovers, shutting down Oregon State's primary scoring option, or a little of both, Nebraska can take care of business. The offense may sputter from time to time, but it shouldn't matter too much. I would play this up to -5.5
Oregon State vs Nebraska same-game parlay
Nebraska -3.5
Under 137.5
Nebraska's defense will control this game, and Oregon State won't exactly be exposed, but the pace will tell the tale.
Both teams are comfortable playing in the mid-60s, possession-wise, and there's reason for both to slow it down more. I made this number 134, so I'm comfortable playing the Under at 137.5.
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Oregon State vs Nebraska odds
Oregon State vs Nebraska live odds
Oregon State vs Nebraska opening odds
- Spread: Oregon State +4 (-110) | Nebraska -4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Oregon State +146 | Nebraska -175
- Over/Under: Over 136.5 (-110) | Under 136.5 (-110)
Oregon State vs Nebraska betting trend to know
Oregon State has gone 8-1 ATS over its last nine games, which netted bettors a profit of nearly seven units in that stretch. Find more college basketball betting trends for Oregon State vs. Nebraska.
How to watch Oregon State vs Nebraska
| Location: | Stan Sheriff Center, Honolulu, HI |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-25-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Oregon State vs Nebraska key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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